To promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, support | demand | market
Recently, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year. The meeting pointed out the need to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, adapt to the new situation of significant changes in the supply and demand relationship of China's real estate market, adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, use policy toolboxes according to urban conditions, better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
According to incomplete statistics, in the first half of this year, various regions implemented policies to regulate the real estate industry in response to urban conditions, with a total of about 380 times. What are the characteristics of optimizing regulatory policies in various regions? What is the trend of the real estate market in the second half of the year?
Multi point efforts in real estate market regulation
Since the beginning of this year, effectively preventing and resolving risks has become the main content of real estate policy regulation. On the one hand, multiple departments will further increase their financial support for real estate enterprises; On the other hand, the demand side focuses on reducing the cost of purchasing a house, and various regions have implemented precise policies in various aspects such as adjusting mortgage interest rates, supporting provident fund policies, simplifying second-hand housing services, optimizing purchase restrictions, and providing housing subsidies.
According to data from China Index Research Institute, over 40 cities across the country have adjusted the lower limit of first home loan interest rates to below 4%. With the People's Bank of China lowering the LPR rate for more than 5 years to 4.2% on June 20th, expectations for some cities to lower mortgage rates are still ongoing. Since the beginning of this year, more than 10 cities including Luoyang and Qingdao have relaxed their credit policies by optimizing the standards for identifying second homes and reducing the down payment ratio, in order to drive the real estate market to develop upwards and healthily. In early June, Qingdao reduced the down payment ratio in non restricted purchase areas, leading to a rebound in residential property sentiment and an increase in market activity. Restrictive policies in non core areas of hot cities may be further relaxed.
From the perspective of housing provident fund policies, compared with the previous limitations of provident fund withdrawals, over a hundred places have introduced policies this year to increase the loan amount of provident fund, reduce the down payment ratio of provident fund, allow provident fund to pay down payment, support "commercial to public" loans, and increase the amount of provident fund withdrawals for renting houses. These policies further support the release of demand for rigid and improved housing by revitalizing provident fund.
"From the perspective of policy effectiveness, further relaxation of credit policies is conducive to reducing the cost of purchasing and purchasing properties, and has had a certain positive effect on promoting the release of housing demand." Huang Yu, Executive Vice President of Zhongzhi Research Institute, believes that for the real estate market, more supply and demand support policies still need to be added in order to better play the policy effect.
The "third arrow" of self supporting real estate financing has been shot, and equity financing of multiple listed real estate companies, including China Merchants Shekou, Poly Development, Fuxing Shares, Lujiazui, China Communications Real Estate, and Damingcheng, has been approved by the exchange. The total amount of raised funds is about 35 billion yuan, most of which are used to supplement working capital and ensure the delivery of buildings.
Zhang Bo, President of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, stated that current real estate development enterprises are gradually emerging from financing difficulties. The approval of refinancing by real estate enterprises will help them stabilize land acquisition, start construction, and construction, while also playing a positive role in the orderly delivery of projects.
Overall showing a stabilizing trend
In the first half of the year, various cities implemented policies to improve policy accuracy, better meeting the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of this year, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 595 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, with residential sales area decreasing by 2.8%. The sales revenue of commercial housing was 6.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%, with residential sales increasing by 3.7%.
Specifically, in the first quarter, under the influence of factors such as the release of backlogged demand in the early stage and the effectiveness of policies, the activity of the real estate market rebounded, and the real estate market in hot cities showed a "little spring" trend. In the second quarter, the backlog of housing demand in the early stage was released, and the market significantly cooled down.
From the perspective of demand structure, the demand for improved housing in the first half of the year remained an important support for the market, with an increase in the proportion of units sold in the middle and high price segments in multiple cities. The number of high-end residential products sold in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Suzhou has grown rapidly, and the market has maintained a certain level of activity. By comparison, the activity of the second-hand housing market was better than that of new housing in the first half of the year, and market expectations for the second quarter weakened simultaneously.
However, there is an uneven distribution of hot and cold in the land auction market. Land auctions in core cities have maintained a certain level of popularity, while some cities have shown lackluster performance in land auctions. Data shows that in the first half of this year, the upper limit of land price transactions in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Hefei accounted for more than 50%, and some plots in Beijing and Hangzhou set a record for the number of land auction companies in recent years; The participation of enterprises in the core areas of Guangzhou, Qingdao, Jinan, Tianjin, and Fuzhou is high, while non core areas are mostly traded at bottom prices, with obvious differentiation between sectors; Wuxi, Zhengzhou, and Changchun generally transact at bottom prices, and the sentiment of land auctions is not high.
Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, stated that the concentrated release of the backlog of housing demand in the early first quarter has led to an improvement in the real estate market. In the second quarter, the real estate market gradually returned to normal operation, and the overall trend of the real estate market in the first half of the year showed stabilization. In the future, real estate development investment will continue to operate at a low level. But as the real estate market gradually adjusts, real estate development investment will gradually return to a reasonable level.
Experts suggest that in the new stage of the real estate market, all parties can shift their focus from "homeowners have their own homes" to "homeowners have better homes", promote residential development from single to diversified, promote the integration of industry, housing, and urban areas, focus on the future development of the industry, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Policies will be further optimized
Recently, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development held a symposium on enterprises. The meeting pointed out that we should continue to consolidate the stable and rebounding trend of the real estate market, strongly support the demand for rigid and improved housing, further implement policy measures such as reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate for purchasing the first home, reducing the tax and fee for replacing the purchase of improved housing, and providing personal housing loans with "no need to subscribe". Stabilizing the two pillars of the construction and real estate industries plays an important role in promoting economic recovery and improvement.
The S&P credit rating report believes that the current bottleneck in the recovery of the real estate industry lies in insufficient demand, and the recovery of demand depends more on the economy, per capita income level, and the improvement of residents' expectations for the future. "Only when residents' employment and income can provide substantial support for purchasing a house, can relief policies truly take effect," said Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center. "In addition to various policies continuously promoting the stabilization and improvement of the real estate market, it is also necessary to form good market expectations to help release rigid and improvement demand for housing," said Zhao Xiuchi, Dean of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Real Estate Research Institute at Capital University of Economics and Trade and Executive Vice President and Secretary General of the Beijing Real Estate Law Society.
Li Yujia stated that the future policy direction is to meet and release demand, such as meeting the needs of new citizens and young people to rent before buying; Revitalize existing stock, improve supply efficiency, and match demand, including urban village renovation, old residential area renovation, and county-level town housing renovation, to solve the problem of uncoordinated and insufficient development; Build good houses, communities, and communities to meet the needs of beautiful living.
Zhao Xiuchi believes that various regions should combine the policies of having multiple children and introducing population, and appropriately relax purchase restrictions. For example, further reducing the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rates, allowing existing fixed rate mortgages to be converted into LPR based floating rate mortgages.
Zhang Bo predicts that in the second half of the year, real estate regulation will be further optimized, and the probability of implementing relevant policies to relax purchase restrictions in hot cities may increase. At the same time, the housing loan policy is expected to increase its tilt towards improving demand.
At present, many real estate companies in the capital market are facing delisting. How can the financing environment for real estate companies continue to improve in the future? Chen Xiao, senior analyst at Zhuge Data Research Center, stated that from the supply side, it is necessary to continue to increase financing support for real estate enterprises and implement the "three arrows" support measures. "Financing should be more inclined towards high-quality real estate enterprises and private real estate enterprises with stable capital."
Huang Yu suggested continuing to increase support for equity financing of listed real estate companies and accelerating approval efforts; To support private real estate enterprises in issuing bonds and financing through "central local cooperation" to increase credit, we need to expand and expand our scale, promote in more cities, and benefit more private real estate enterprises. At the same time, we will increase support for mergers and acquisitions of listed real estate enterprises.
The Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Renovation of Urban Villages in Super Large and Large Cities, which were reviewed and approved by the State Council Executive Meeting on July 21, mentioned that in super large and large cities, policy support for the renovation of urban villages should be increased, innovative renovation models should be actively innovated, and private capital participation should be encouraged and supported. The renovation of urban villages and the revitalization of idle assets will be important measures and ways to increase the construction and supply of affordable housing.
"Next, we will explore multiple channels to provide affordable rental housing, and take multiple measures to stimulate social investment and jointly build affordable housing. The policy support will be further strengthened," said Zhang Bo.
