Three Questions about Ukraine's Counterattack: Why Now? How is the situation? How did all parties react? Military | President | Ukraine
Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky recently confirmed that the Ukrainian military has begun a counterattack. But both Russia and Ukraine have their own opinions on the progress of the counterattack. Why was the counterattack chosen now? What is the current situation? What are the reactions of all parties to this?
Why is there a counterattack now?
Zelensky confirmed at a press conference on the 10th that Ukraine has begun a counterattack. Putin told several Russian media on the 12th that the Ukrainian military's counterattack began on the 4th of this month and has continued to this day. This is a large-scale counterattack, and the Ukrainian military has also mobilized reserve forces.
Analysts believe that Ukraine chose to launch a counterattack at this time mainly for two reasons:
Firstly, the equipment preparation required for Ukraine's counterattack has been basically completed. From the videos and media reports released by the Russian side, it can be seen that the Ukrainian military used Western assisted "Leopard 2" tanks and "Bradley" infantry tanks in their counterattack. As early as late January this year, countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany announced their assistance to Ukraine with heavy weapons such as main battle tanks. In May of this year, Ukrainian Defense Minister Leznikov stated that Ukraine's counterattack depends on three key factors: sufficient weapons, fully trained troops, and a continuous supply of military supplies. On May 24th, Budanov, Director of the Intelligence Bureau of the Ukrainian Ministry of National Defense, posted on social media that the Ukrainian military has accumulated enough personnel and equipment to begin a counterattack.
The second is to further seek support from the West. NATO will hold a summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius in July. Zelensky previously stated that if Western countries do not provide security guarantees to Ukraine at this summit, it is "betraying Ukraine.". According to the Tass News Agency, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a joint press conference with Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Tayani on the 12th that the counterattack is expected to consolidate Ukraine's position in negotiations with Russia. At the same time, the United States and other Western countries will maximize their support for Ukraine's counterattack.
Analysts also say that Ukraine has repeatedly requested Western countries to provide clear commitments and security guarantees to Ukraine at NATO summits. To achieve this goal, Ukraine needs to present a decent "transcript" before the summit to prove that Western countries have been effective in providing military aid to Ukraine.
What is the current situation?
Both Russia and Ukraine have their own opinions on the progress of the Ukrainian counterattack.
Putin said on the 12th that the Ukrainian army's counterattack failed to achieve victory and suffered heavy losses. The Ukrainian army has lost over 160 tanks and 360 armored vehicles of various types in the counterattack, while the Russian army has lost 54 tanks. In terms of living power, the loss of the Russian army is only one tenth of that of the Ukrainian army.
Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff Spokesperson Kovalyov said on the 14th that in the past three days, the Ukrainian army's offensive has achieved partial success and has achieved partial advancement in some directions. He also said that the fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian troops in the western Donetsk region around the village of Makarovka is still ongoing.
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg told US President Biden at the White House on the 13th that the Ukrainian military, which has received Western support, is "making progress" in its counterattack. "The more land Ukraine takes, the more they will have the upper hand at the negotiation table.".
How did all parties react?
After Ukraine's counterattack began, Western countries continued to pour oil on the fire. The Wall Street Journal quoted sources as saying that the US government is ready to approve the supply of depleted uranium bombs for M1 main battle tanks to Ukraine. Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau made a surprise visit to Ukraine on the 10th and announced that he will provide an additional 500 million Canadian dollars in military assistance to Ukraine.
In addition, from the 12th to the 23rd of this month, NATO held its largest air military exercise since its establishment. Russian military observer Yuri Knutov believes that there is a possibility of cooperating with Ukraine's counterattack in this military exercise. He believes that NATO's exposure of its teeth to Russia will exacerbate tensions.
Putin pointed out that Western countries should stop supplying weapons to Ukraine, and with the cessation of weapons supply, Ukraine will soon hope to engage in negotiations. Russian President's press secretary Peskov also stated that there are currently no prerequisites for reaching an agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine is unwilling and not ready to negotiate with Russia, and the Western countries behind it do not allow Ukraine to sit at the negotiating table now.
South African President Ramaphosa announced on the 9th that a peace delegation composed of leaders from six African countries, including South Africa, will visit Russia and Ukraine to push for the conflict to end as soon as possible. South Africa supports China's position paper on a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis and hopes that relevant parties can resume negotiations as soon as possible.
