Thoroughly! Uncovering the Logical Truth Behind the Great Power Game: Politics, Allies, Military, Strategy, China, Order, Region, and the United States

Source | People's Forum Network-People's Forum Magazine

On July 4, President Xi Jinping attended the 23rd meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by video in Beijing and delivered an important speech. President Xi Jinping pointed out: "We must shoulder the important tasks entrusted by the times, keep in mind our original mission, adhere to unity and cooperation, and inject more certainty and positive energy into the maintenance of world peace and development."

Since the beginning of the 21st century, there has been a significant change in the comparison of soft and hard power among major countries in the world, which has been replaced by competition, opposition, and confrontation between major powers. The possibility of conflicts and even wars between major powers has sharply increased. What is the essence of constructing a regional order in the game of great powers? What is the significance of China's regional order construction plan? Follow the latest article of the People's Forum together.

The Construction of Regional Order in the Process of Great Power Game

Currently, the United States has re emphasized the competition among major powers, regained its Cold War confrontational thinking, attempted to replicate its Cold War confrontational practices in the mid to late 20th century, openly portrayed differences in international political identity, and vigorously incited opposition and confrontation in international political and economic concepts. The international community is increasingly showing a trend of factional division and group confrontation. Against the backdrop of increasingly radical changes in the policies of hegemonic countries to maintain their hegemony, the overall international political and economic environment continues to deteriorate. Among them, the suppression of rising countries by hegemonic countries constitutes the biggest source of turbulence in the world today. Hegemonic countries provoke ideological confrontation, and the trend of ideological camp differentiation and opposition is significantly strengthened. Many traditional or emerging geopolitical space games, such as land, ocean, space, network, and space, have undergone significant changes. The confrontation between land and sea power under the support of network and space technology has formed a new form of expanding geopolitical big game, which has intensified the turbulence and changes in the world today, and led the great power game towards new space and new forms.

Henry Kissinger, a renowned international expert in the United States, believes that the current political and economic crises in the world have made it impossible for Western countries to optimistically envision creating the world they want through the global spread of democracy and free markets. The result is not only a multipolar power, but also a world composed of increasingly conflicting realities. Faced with a world that Western countries can no longer control alone, Kissinger believes that politicians of today's era must integrate "different historical experiences and values" into the "common order", otherwise, there may even be "regional struggles" that are more destructive than those between countries. Kissinger did to some extent explain the mechanism and trend of the evolution of international political contradictions. As Chinese scholar Zhang Yuyan said, when the international situation presents a multipolar trend, competition among major powers intensifies, economic globalization is hindered, and regionalization accelerates, parallel systems led by several key global powers may even emerge in the world, and even parallel systems that break through regional restrictions and attempt to use social and economic systems as grouping standards. This parallel system is reflected in the international economic sense as a "decoupled" parallel market, and in the international political sense as a regional order dominated by different major powers.

According to the perspective of critical geopolitical theory, regions are increasingly understood as a social space with constantly changing boundaries, shaped and reconstructed by certain political practice activities. Regionalization refers to the process and actions of forming a region. A specific area where humans live and interact with each other has three layers of meaning: geographic space, historical space, and conscious space. A region is an international region composed of two or more ethnic states, which is different from a nation state. It is an integral part of the entire international community or system. According to Barry Buzan, a representative figure of the British School, the composition of a region requires at least three conditions: shared characteristics, formed interactions, and shared perspectives. Regional order includes the following connotations: firstly, it refers to the power pattern among countries in the region, which is a combination of rules and objectives that are generated to meet certain interests, achieve specific goals and values. Regional institutions and institutional arrangements, especially regional intergovernmental organizations, are important carriers for building regional order. Secondly, it manifests as certain norms, values, goals, and desires being jointly accepted by various actors in the region, each with a basically consistent value orientation, and their behavior is constrained by common values and goals. Finally, to some extent, regional identity rather than power factors constrain regional cooperation and inter regional behavior among countries. On the level of action, regional order is manifested as the rule based communication and interaction among various actors in the region, as well as the widely recognized regional concerted action.

The competition of regional order manifests in at least two different forms of spatial competition, one is the competition between different geographical spatial orders, and the other is the competition between different orders within the same geographical space. In the competition of this regional order, various factors such as the leadership of the dominant country, the spatial scope of the order coverage area, the basic orientation of war and peace in the order concept, the depth and feasibility of the order mechanism, the size of the order cohesion, and the ways and methods of solving its own contradictions jointly determine the results of regional order competition or regional order construction, and ultimately determine the results of the great power competition game. Therefore, this regional order competition is extremely crucial to the great power competition game. The struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War was actually manifested as a struggle between two parallel systems and two regional orders led by the United States and the Soviet Union. The United States led the Western camp in building a US led transatlantic regional order; The Soviet Union also attempted to lead the Soviet Eastern camp to form a regional order and mechanism with its own political characteristics. However, the Soviet Eastern camp under Soviet leadership was always under tremendous tension due to the Soviet Union's big party and big country ideology, and ultimately led to division. It can be said that the process and results of constructing two regional orders during the Cold War also demonstrate the important significance of constructing regional orders in the game of great power confrontation.

What is the intention of the United States to focus on building an Indo Pacific regional order?

For many years, the United States has continuously claimed to be an Asia Pacific country, emphasizing itself as a world leader and maintainer of the Asia Pacific order. It has carefully selected and induced regional allies and partners, continuously strengthened its regional alliance containment strategy, and pushed the forefront of major country competition to the surrounding areas of China. From the "turning to Asia" during the Obama administration, it began to emphasize its identity as an Asia Pacific country, launched the "Asia Pacific rebalancing" strategy and carefully constructed the "Asia Pacific arc" around Chinese Mainland, to the Trump administration, it officially defined China as a "strategic competitor" and publicly launched the "Indo Pacific strategy", which is supported by the "four sided mechanism" of the United States, Japan, Australia and India, and aims to contain China as the primary goal, to the Biden administration, which operates the "Indo Pacific strategy" under the banner of liberalism, and continues to build a network of regional mechanisms at all levels led by the United States. At the same time, it clearly excludes China's influence in the regional mechanisms it operates, and forcibly injects the concepts of "China threat" and "China is a strategic competitor" into its allies In the system. In the operation of the so-called Indo Pacific strategy, the United States repeatedly shapes and continues to promote the shared characteristics and interactions between the United States and its allies, and even imposes so-called "shared views".

The decision-making level of the US government and both parties are increasingly tailoring a pro American and anti China Indo Pacific regional geopolitical framework to form political and strategic consensus. This is manifested in the absorption of a wider range of pro American resources as much as possible, constantly attracting middle forces, strengthening the US position and weakening China's regional influence through camp based forces, and entering a "wedge" in China's relations with friendly China countries, in order to achieve the goal of blocking China's development vitality, weakening China's influence, and weakening China's strength.

Economically, it emphasizes the so-called "China threat" and establishes a "small multilateral" and exclusive mechanism between the United States and its allies in the economic and technological fields, so that the main allies of the United States can follow the United States to "decouple" from the Chinese economy and strive to rebuild a so-called "free economic order" led by the United States in the Indo Pacific region, ensuring that the economic vitality of the Indo Pacific region supports the United States' dominant position in the world economy. We will vigorously strengthen military ties with our allies and partners, strengthen military ties with the alliance through localized US forces stationed in Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, and drive the construction of a broader alliance security mechanism through core alliance mechanisms such as the "Okus" Alliance and the "Five Eyes Alliance" based on Anglo Saxon identity, gradually promoting the formation of a comprehensive cooperation mechanism between the United States and its treaty allies in military security. For emerging partners, efforts are made to establish a mutual trust and security cooperation relationship through normalized military contacts, mechanistic defense trade and technology cooperation, frequent joint exercises, as well as deeply developed logistics assistance, electronic communication, information sharing cooperation and interoperability arrangements. Multi line interaction is carried out with core allies to build a US led regional military security integration cooperation system, and the identity awareness of the United States and its regional allies is strengthened through frequent joint military confrontation exercises with China as the hypothetical enemy. Politically, there is an increasing emphasis on the common values and bonds between the United States and allied countries such as Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia, openly promoting the so-called "rule-based order" led by the United States, while openly labeling China, Russia, and other countries as "authoritarian states" and "coercive diplomacy", attempting to use the "wedge strategy" to disrupt and disrupt close political exchanges between emerging economies and developing countries, as well as regional integration cooperation between East Asian countries, creating regional tension, deteriorating the regional security atmosphere, and increasingly causing division and confrontation among regional countries. The Biden administration clearly stated in its Indo Pacific Strategy report, "The goal of the United States is to shape the strategic environment in which China operates, and to establish a balance of influence that is most beneficial to the United States, its allies, partners, and their common interests and values worldwide."

The characteristics of shaping the regional order in the United States

Since taking office, the Biden administration has initiated a strong process of shaping the Indo Pacific regional order through a series of military, diplomatic, and political measures, committed to building a "Indo Pacific strategy" landscape with American liberal characteristics that serves the greatest strategic interests of the United States and promotes the maximum enhancement of its strategic position.

One is to vigorously revitalize the so-called "military power status" of the United States as the military support for its regional order construction. The United States strengthens its military strength and deployment in the Indo Pacific region, implements the Pacific deterrence initiative, and builds a comprehensive deterrence capability against China. In March 2022, the US Indo Pacific Command clearly defined Guam, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia as the four main centers of the US military in the Indo Pacific theater of war for the first time. The United States strengthens its strategic military capabilities in emerging fields and maintains close cooperation with allies to build a competitive advantage in full spectrum military technology; Focusing on building space technology, we are committed to building technological and strength advantages with a focus on the integration of space and space technology, space capture technology, and giant constellation technology; Deepen military exercises, optimize command links, build a space alliance, strengthen space offensive posture and combat capabilities; In network confrontation, the concept and actions of "continuous confrontation" and pre defense are promoted, continuously advancing the network alliance between the United States and its allies, expanding joint cyberspace operations, and coordinating cyberspace combat issues.

The conclusion of the 2022 edition of the US Defense Strategy reads, "On more than one occasion in US history, the US has competed with major powers attempting to oppress other countries through threats or the use of force for many years and achieved victory." The US military is "ready to win this struggle again.". The rare and public promotion of a certain long-term military competition or even confrontation in the national defense strategy documents shows that the US military is increasingly eager to achieve the intention of dominating regional order through a Cold War style sustained military power competition and confrontation.

The second is to spare no effort in weaving a US led regional relationship network as diplomatic support for the construction of its regional order. The US Indo Pacific strategy is a constantly shaping external strategic process. The United States is vigorously strengthening its alliance system in the Indo Pacific region, striving to build bilateral, trilateral, quadrilateral, and five eye alliance partnerships, ensuring that the United States has absolute dominant power in the regional security network. The United States and its allies are gradually forming a deeper fusion of situational awareness, a wider mechanism for personnel exchange, and a more comprehensive system of mutual support for joint regional operations. The form and mechanism of security and military integration cooperation between the United States and its core allies, which includes joint deployment, joint command, joint exercises, combat readiness and coordination, mutual support of materials and logistics, and sharing of situational awareness, are being formed.

The US Defense Authorization Act of 2022 also places special emphasis on Southeast Asian countries, emphasizing the need to deepen and expand Southeast Asian alliances, partnerships, and multilateral exchanges, including efforts to expand broad-based and inclusive economic growth, security connections, security cooperation and interoperability, economic connectivity, and opportunities for ASEAN to collaborate with other like-minded partners in the region. The United States also frequently engages in exchanges and interactions with Central Asian countries and Mongolia. In this way, among the neighboring countries and regions surrounding China, except for a few countries such as Russia, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, other countries are either referred to as allies and partners by the United States or are being sought after by the United States. The Biden administration is committed to using strategic operations to isolate China in the Indo Pacific region, thereby forming a deterrent pressure on our country. From the Trump administration's emphasis on the "quadrilateral alliance", "diamond strategy", and military strength, to the Biden administration's emphasis on small multilateral connections and ideological ties at different levels, the United States has flexible and diverse forms of building a regional order, constantly innovating means, and expanding fields. In addition, the United States continues to emphasize maritime and geopolitical security, shifting from a "curved diplomacy" encirclement around the East Asian continent to a military campaign to suppress the Asian continent. The United States continues to launch highly provocative military deterrence actions from the sea, such as close reconnaissance and crossing the Taiwan Strait, and emphasizes the need to confront opponents with firm and convincing actions in daily competition. The field of confrontation is increasingly focused on high-tech fields such as the internet and space. The United States is committed to building "small courtyards and high walls", attempting to contain China by continuously creating hot topics such as infrastructure, financial debt, vaccine prevention, climate environment, chips, technology, and human rights.

The third is to loudly advocate for serving the interests of allies, attempting to create broad domestic and foreign political support for the construction of a regional order in the United States. The 2020 Carnegie Institute for International Peace's report "Better Foreign Policy for the Middle Class" stated that efforts should be made to break down barriers in domestic and foreign policies, and foreign policy should be formulated through in-depth understanding of domestic economic and social issues and their complex interactions with foreign policy decisions. The Biden administration claimed in its Indo Pacific Strategy that the United States needs to coordinate with its allies and partners abroad, compete with China, and defend its common interests and views on the future. The United States has proposed the "Rebuilding a Better World" plan and launched the so-called "Indo Pacific Economic Framework", advocating for the United States' economic blueprint and capabilities in the Indo Pacific region and even globally, with the intention of hedging China's regional and even global economic impact. The US government continuously uses publicly released strategic texts such as the US National Security Strategy and the Indo Pacific Strategy, and through public speeches by leaders on various occasions, is committed to shaping public awareness, including within the US and its allies, in an attempt to maximize public support for the US strategy towards China. The various government strategy and policy documents publicly released by the US government almost vigorously promote the importance of allies, committed to treating the security of allies equally with the security of the United States itself, considering the security interests of allies as the core interest, while also forcibly defining the opportunities, challenges, and capabilities of the United States as those of its allies, emphasizing the construction of a "common defense industrial base", an integrated supply chain, "collective military advantages", "interoperability arrangements", and "common strategic vision" between the United States and its allies, in order to shape recognition of the United States among the people of allied countries.

The United States is increasingly emphasizing the use of social public opinion resources to label China as "authoritarian", with the aim of slandering China and tarnishing its image. It is constantly strengthening the awareness of the "China threat" among the people of the United States and its allied countries, launching so-called "democratic" and value offensives, promoting so-called "democratic governance" in the Indo Pacific region to beautify its own image, claiming to support the "good governance" and "anti-corruption" of Indo Pacific countries, helping Pacific island countries improve their ability to perceive maritime situations and infrastructure construction, and striving to shape the international community's image of the United States as the world's top ranked leader.

China's Regional Order Construction Plan

The strategic operation of the United States in shaping the so-called regional order in the Indo Pacific region will inevitably harm regional peace and development order. In order to maintain and promote regional peace and development, China needs to advocate for the promotion of peace and tranquility, development and prosperity, win-win cooperation, and civilized progress, and oppose regional order that leads to confrontation, division, and camp.

China advocates the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind, adheres to the principle of shared destiny and solidarity, surpasses conflict and confrontation with peaceful development, replaces absolute security with common security, abandons zero sum games with mutual benefit and win-win results, prevents cultural conflicts through exchanges and mutual learning, and protects our planet with green development. Starting from the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind, China's commitment to promoting regional peace, development, prosperity, and civilization progress has gained a clearer value connotation in its concepts and practices. Regional peace is not only reflected in the ability of countries to maintain peace and security, but also in the mechanisms, norms, basic attitudes, and value orientations for maintaining regional peace and security, as well as a clear emphasis on the rights and obligations of countries to maintain security and promote security through development. The essence of regional development order is reflected in the regional coordination mechanism and common attitude to promote balanced development of various countries and overall sustainable development of the region. The progress of regional civilization is manifested in the persistence of open regionalism and multilateralism, respect for the diversity of members, and advocacy for the harmonious coexistence of different civilizations and social systems. China's efforts to promote the practice of a regional community with a shared future, as well as regional and international cooperation, further demonstrate the practical value of China's plan from a practical perspective.

Slightly deleted from the previous text

Selected from the People's Forum magazine in June

Original title | Great Power Game and Regional Order Competition

Author | Professor Ge Tengfei from the School of International Relations, National University of Defense Technology