These countries will not easily break ties with Russia, according to American media, the author | article | country
On June 14th, the website of the Christian Science Monitor published an article titled "Despite the outbreak of war, post Soviet countries found it difficult to sever ties with Russia." The author was Fred Weil. The full text is excerpted as follows:
The outside world largely ignored the Victory Day parade held by Russia on May 9th this year. Against the background of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the realistic threat of Ukrainian drone attacks, this year's military parade has been greatly reduced. But to the surprise of many analysts, Putin stood on the podium with leaders from seven other post Soviet countries, including five Central Asian countries, as well as Armenia and Belarus.
After more than a year of immense pressure, most of these countries are seeking to distance themselves from Moscow and find alternative ways to trade, political connections, and security. But breaking free from the constraints of geography, history, economic integration, and geopolitical dependence is not so easy. All the leaders sitting with Putin, as well as some other absent leaders, have found reasons not to sever ties with Moscow.
The recent research of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has explained in detail that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has subverted the traditional trade model. Russia's former Soviet neighbors have benefited greatly from the cheap Russian energy products exported to the West in the past, and their own exports to Russia - including those evading sanctions - have proved extremely profitable.
Dmitry Suslov, a foreign policy expert at the Russian State Higher Economic Research University, said, "Most of these countries are hedging their risks. This leads to maintaining a certain distance from Russia and making gestures to avoid the threat of secondary sanctions from the United States and the European Union. This gives the impression that Russia's relationship with them is deteriorating. However, in reality, they simply cannot afford the consequences of breaking ties with Russia."
"There are too many economic interdependence, common security concerns - Central Asian countries' concerns about Afghanistan are far greater than those of Ukraine - and population considerations. Millions of workers from Central Asia, Georgia, and Armenia come to Russia as guest workers, and their remittances are very important."
Georgia is one of the more pro Western countries in the post Soviet region. Although the people are in favor of joining NATO and the European Union, this small country has been pulled back to the Russian track because of its economic momentum and unwillingness to be involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Georgian government believes that easing tensions is beneficial for Georgia's business, can stimulate the tourism industry, and is also good news for the large number of Georgian expatriates in Russia.
Azerbaijan, a post Soviet country rich in oil resources along the Caspian Sea coast, is also careful to find a balance between Russia, Iran, Türkiye and the West. Baku's independent political scientist Ilgar Velizad said, "Azerbaijan has seen what is happening in Ukraine and we are trying to help the Ukrainians. However, maintaining distance from Russia is geographically impossible. How do you isolate yourself from your neighbors? Transportation is impossible to cut off. The dialogue we maintain with Russia is crucial for the political and economic processes in our region."
Suslov said that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has affected a broader region and led to instability and change of position in many countries.
He said: "Russia has indeed lost its influence in many fields, but the necessity of maintaining ties has also been affirmed. Russia will maintain its central position in regional relations. As long as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, we will see that Russia and Western countries have their own gains and losses in this fierce competition in the post Soviet region. How the broader sphere of influence develops will largely depend on the outcome of the conflict and Russia's situation at the end of the conflict."