There are three major developments in the situation between Russia and Ukraine: after the Wagner incident, pilots | Russia | events
Source author: Niu Danqin
The dust has basically settled. The Wagner mutiny turned into a 24-hour farce. Putin has been particularly busy lately, giving televised speeches, meeting with generals and soldiers, and engaging in phone diplomacy one after another
But with such a significant event, to be honest, the impact objectively exists, and Russia will definitely face severe challenges. In my personal opinion, there are three major trends in the situation between Russia and Ukraine.
Trend one, Putin has been particularly busy lately.
Extremely busy. I took a look and in the past few days, he has delivered two national television speeches, made seven or eight diplomatic phone calls, and held multiple meetings with powerful departments
Why are you busy?
It's very simple. At critical moments, frequent appearances and various activities not only soothe the morale of the military, but also boost morale; At the same time, it also shows to the outside world that Putin is very good and still firmly controls the situation.
In the Wagner mutiny, multiple Russian pilots were killed. Moreover, according to the agreement, Russia granted a general amnesty to Wagner, and Prigoren was also allowed to go into exile in Belarus.
How can we explain it to these Russian soldiers? How to soothe morale that has been severely bruised?
So, we see that every public speech, Putin highly affirms the Russian armed forces and praises their sacrifice and dedication.
In his televised speech "Deciding Russia's Destiny" on June 26th, Putin expressed gratitude to all loyal military personnel and praised "our brave pilots, their courage and self sacrifice, who saved Russia from the tragic and devastating consequences."
The next day, he held a grand ceremony at Red Square to pay tribute to the soldiers who sacrificed their lives in suppressing the rebellion.
Putin said that it is precisely because of their efforts that Russia does not need to withdraw any troops on the front line. For the sacrificed pilots, "I ask you to observe a minute of silence and mourn them.".
He then held a symposium to once again thank the soldiers for saving the country at the most critical moment. He said, if it weren't for them standing up, what would this country ultimately become? And the enemy will definitely take advantage of it!
Putin in front of the camera, sometimes angry, sometimes heavy, and sometimes slightly relieved.
Indeed, at this stage, Russia has no one who can replace its authority. Putin, who is facing a severe test, is expected to be particularly busy in the coming days, and it is not ruled out that there will be extraordinary actions.
Trend two, Wagner will become history.
The original Wagner will definitely no longer exist.
In his previous speech, Putin made it clear that Wagner members have three options:
1. Sign a contract to join the Russian military;
2. Go home and return to your loved ones;
3. Leave and go to Belarus.
Prigoren should have already gone to Belarus. Wagner's tanks and other heavy weapons will then be handed over to the Russian military.
Belarusian President Lukashenko also revealed that Prigorn's plane had landed in Belarus on the 27th. "Hernin said he can make such a unit part of his own army. I agree. Don't hesitate, talk to them."
Lukashenko also said, "We have provided them with an abandoned military base. We have walls, everything. Set up your tents."
The most important mercenary group in Russia has become a legend. Or, to put it another way, continue in Belarus.
Will Russia settle accounts after autumn?
Putin promised not to, but disclosed a series of data. From May 2022 to May 2023, Russia provided support to Wagner, reaching 86 billion rubles.
In addition, by providing food and other businesses to the Russian military, Wagner also earned over 80 billion rubles from the Russian government. Speaking of this, Putin said that he hopes no one has stolen anything, or in other words, not many things have been stolen. "Needless to say, we will investigate," he said.
Obviously, although Prygo was granted amnesty, Putin's remaining anger did not dissipate. And these data also show to Wagner members that you are not private armed forces, but are being supported by the Russian government.
Former CIA Director Petraeus provided "safety advice" to Prigoren: in Belarus, stay away from windows.
Why?
Afraid of enemies shooting. Putin will let him go, but what about others?
Movement three, more intense battles will occur.
It's simple, Russia urgently needs a victory to boost morale and soothe the hearts of the military and the people.
So, the biggest disappointment now is undoubtedly Ukraine. I originally wanted to see internal strife in Russia and even take advantage of it to launch a counterattack, but within 24 hours, the matter was resolved in three strikes and five strikes.
Russia has no internal strife, and frontline troops have not retreated.
More importantly, Russia seems to have vented its anger on Ukraine. On the evening of the 27th, the Russian military launched another fierce missile attack on Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian side, at least 4 people were killed, including a child.
Putin told the security forces that according to the latest statistical data, since the Ukrainian army launched a counterattack in early June, the Russian army has destroyed 259 Ukrainian tanks and 780 armored vehicles.
In the front line of the Ukrainian counterattack in the Olekhov region, in the past 7 days, the Ukrainian army has lost 280 heavy weapons, including 41 tanks and 102 armored vehicles.
It should be noted that Wagner, who fought fiercely, is still in the eastern region of Ukraine. If they really turn to Belarus, then they are only 100 kilometers away from Kiev; This is a new deterrent for Lithuania and Poland, which border Belarus.
Many things really move the whole body at once.
A dramatic mutiny. Some people have seen Russia's challenges and tears; Some people see the caution and disappointment of the West; But what I see seems to be more tragedy, and at least in the short term, I feel that peace is further away.
The Russian army needs victory, the Ukrainian army needs victory, and Wagner may need victory even more.
This terrifying world full of variables, peace and stability, is truly precious.
