The second quarter GDP will be announced one after another! Who is stronger in economic resilience? Resilience | China and the United States | Economy

Economic data from various countries in the second quarter will be released one after another. At a time when the overall environment is bleak, different economies have varying resilience, with "a few happy and a few worried".

Economic resilience, who is stronger between China and the United States?

In the second quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of China's gross domestic product reached 6.3%, which was 1.8 percentage points faster than the first quarter. From a month on month perspective, China's GDP grew by 0.8% in the second quarter. Officially, the Chinese economy has demonstrated "strong resilience" in a complex and severe external environment.

Part of China's economic resilience comes from a rebound in consumption. According to official data, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 8.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year.

Wang Yun, Deputy Director of the Institute of Foreign Economics at the China Academy of Macroeconomics, believes that the fundamental role of consumption in China's economic development has significantly increased. The steady recovery of consumption has provided strong support for the effective improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth of quantity. The recovery growth in consumption this year can support China's goal of achieving GDP growth of around 5%.

According to a report released by the World Bank in June, China's economic growth rate is expected to reach 5.6% this year. The report states that China's economic recovery also provides an important opportunity for policy-making to focus on medium - and long-term development goals. Promoting reforms in key areas is crucial for China to maintain economic growth and achieve long-term goals.

The United States has also shown resilience. In the second quarter, the US GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.4%, higher than the 2% in the first quarter. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell revealed that internal Federal Reserve researchers no longer anticipate an economic downturn. Bank of America economists have also withdrawn their predictions of an economic recession in the United States.

Citibank's Chief Economist for Greater China, Yu Xiangrong, believes that after multiple consecutive interest rate hikes, there is still no sign of a recession in the US economy. If the strong momentum of the US economy continues, it will be an important support for global demand.

But some analysts have also bluntly stated that the resilience of the US economy is built on the basis of drawing blood from its allies. After the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, under the strategic pressure of the United States, the European Union followed the United States in launching multiple rounds of sanctions against Russia, including embargoes on Russian coal, oil products, natural gas, etc., seriously distorting the supply chain and affecting the EU's own economic growth. Under the "arch fire" of the United States, energy from Russia and Europe is gradually decoupling, and natural gas from the United States is selling well in Europe.

International rating agency Fitch believes that tightening credit conditions, weakening commercial investment, and slowing consumption will lead to a mild recession in the US economy in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. Fitch even downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+.

Who decides the strength of resilience?

In addition to China and the United States, South Korea's economic growth rate in the second quarter was also better than expected. According to official data, South Korea's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.9% year-on-year, which is on par with the first quarter and better than economists' forecast of 0.8%.

The economic situation in Japan is relatively complex. Despite some indicators such as industrial output rebounding beyond expectations in June, the economic and fiscal situation still remains uncertain. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, more than 4000 Japanese enterprises went bankrupt in the first half of this year, up 30% year on year.

The locomotive of the European economy, Germany, is hesitating. Affected by the Ukraine crisis, which has raised energy prices, Germany's GDP in the second quarter remained unchanged compared to the previous market expectation of a growth of 0.1%. The German central bank stated in its latest assessment that due to weak external demand and higher financing costs caused by eurozone interest rate hikes, Germany's economic recovery before the end of the year may be "somewhat more hesitant" than expected in June.

Other analysts predict that due to weak purchasing power, reduced industrial orders, and the impact of tightening monetary policies in Europe and America, the German economy will hover between stagnation and recession this year.

In contrast, the French economy has performed better. Driven by a surge in exports, France's GDP in the second quarter increased by 0.9% year-on-year and 0.5% month on month, both significantly higher than market expectations, and inflation has also eased.

The difference in economic resilience is related to economic structure. Strong production capacity, complete industrial and supply chains, developed and balanced industrial systems, and often stronger resilience; The three carriages of investment, consumption, and net exports have strong coordination and resilience, usually better than those highly dependent on one aspect; High tech industries, strategic emerging industries, and other new driving forces are often more resilient than countries that overly rely on traditional industries.

Different economic resilience means that when global economic instability, uncertainty, and unpredictable factors continue to emerge, countries have different resilience to risk challenges. Xu Xiujun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that in this context, if some major countries continue to implement "de risk" policies, the global economy will face more and greater risks.