The mentality of homeowners and buyers is inconsistent, causing waves in the Beijing real estate market: intermediary phone numbers bombard everywhere
"A lot of people came to consult last night, and there were already hundreds of people on site this morning. Currently, there are no more new market subscription slots available, but there is still room for an additional one."
On September 2nd, a real estate development located in the Wangjing area of Chaoyang, Beijing opened for the first time. On the morning of the 2nd, when First Financial called the sales office as a homebuyer, a salesperson said that yesterday evening, shortly after the implementation of the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy, the developer had notified the sales office to withdraw the discount on new houses.
On the evening of the 1st, the Beijing Housing and Urban Rural Development Commission and three other departments jointly issued a notice stating that from now on, the standards for determining the number of housing units in personal housing loans in Beijing will be optimized, and a "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy will be implemented throughout the city.
The new policies in the real estate market are sweeping through social media. The market has also begun to spread news that some real estate developers are informing customers to withdraw discounts in advance. Although the truth of these rumors is still unknown, they have also stirred up the emotions of some potential homebuyers, and the bullish or optimistic atmosphere about the real estate market on social media platforms has become increasingly strong.
Wang Yeqiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Real Estate Committee of the China Urban Economics Society, stated in an interview with First Financial that the current confidence in the real estate market is weak, and policies encourage residents to buy houses with leverage. As households, we need to live within our means and moderately control the risk of leverage. In addition, the rapid increase in household leverage may also lead to risk accumulation and inhibit the growth of household consumption. Therefore, relevant departments also need to pay attention to controlling the rapid rise of household leverage, as the positioning of "housing for living, not for speculation" is still present.
The intermediary's phone number
Yesterday, when the new policy of "recognizing houses but not loans" was implemented in Beijing, developers and intermediaries were the first to remain calm, followed by local improvement groups, while those in need were relatively calm.
Taking the aforementioned project as an example, a real estate agent in the Wangjing area told reporters that although the project includes small units of 75-100 square meters, due to the developer's goal of creating high-end western-style houses, the new houses here may not be suitable for young people from other places to buy for the first time in Beijing. On the contrary, those who are more interested in this property are more replacement groups with higher housing quality requirements, elderly care, and education needs.
"The phone calls from intermediaries come faster than news push notifications," a post-90s Beijing migrant worker named Wang told reporters that in November last year, the strictest "double restriction" policy in the Tongzhou area was officially lifted in Taihu and Majuqiao along the Fifth Ring Road in southeastern Beijing. At that time, when she was planning to buy a wedding house, she once went to the local area to see the house and left phone numbers at multiple sales points and agencies.
"It has been silent for almost a year, and yesterday, the intermediaries started making 'frenzied' phone calls again. My partner and I have received quite a few. However, upon careful calculation, the discount for the new house there is a few points less than last year, which means the total price is higher. Although the down payment can be reduced by more than one million now, the pressure to repay the loan will increase in the coming years. Let's wait and see." said Xiao Wang.
The same situation also occurs outside the northwest fifth ring road of Beijing. A real estate agent in Changping District told reporters that according to the current standard for ordinary and non ordinary houses in Beijing, if the unit price of the fifth to sixth ring roads is not less than 316800 yuan/square meter or the total price is not less than 3.744 million yuan/unit, it will be judged as non ordinary houses, and new houses in Changping District are basically non ordinary houses. Before September 1st, among homebuyers with loan records nationwide, the down payment ratio for non regular homes reached 80%, which suppressed a considerable proportion of those in need and those in need of improvement. After the implementation of the policy of "buying a house but not a loan", the improvement community who had been waiting for a long time and planned to "sell one buy one" became active first. Due to the obvious inversion of new and second-hand houses in Changping District, most of the improvement groups have flooded into the new housing market.
When a resident family applies for a loan to purchase commercial housing, if their family members do not have a complete set of housing under the local name, regardless of whether they have used the loan to purchase housing, banking and financial institutions will implement the housing credit policy for the first set of housing.
In recent years, among the cities that have implemented the "house recognition and loan recognition" policy, the Beijing and Shanghai regions have the strictest certification standards for second homes. That is, those with housing loan records nationwide, whether they are commercial loans or provident fund loans, whether settled or not, are recorded as one set. In addition, due to the generally higher down payment ratio, mortgage interest rates, and related taxes and fees for second home buyers in first tier cities compared to second tier cities, the "buy and buy" policy brings greater financial pressure to local homebuyers.
Compared to before and after the new policy, for Beijing homebuyers who do not have a house and have a loan, they can borrow 40% and 20% respectively for ordinary and non ordinary homes. Starting from September 1st, they can borrow 65% and 60% respectively.
"The relatively calm demand market may also be related to the relatively scarce availability of small-sized housing on the market, in addition to the psychological expectations of homebuyers. Due to the limited availability of small-sized housing, some developers may have stricter evaluations of the purchasing qualifications, down payment and installment situation of homebuyers," said the real estate agent.
Even for the improvement tribe, according to the description of the real estate agent, the proportion of new customers received yesterday evening was not high. Among the old customers, some are those who have already paid the deposit and rushed to sign the purchase contract, while others are those who inquire about policy details such as whether the new policy starts from the date of online signing or the date of bank lending.
A real estate agent at a Lianjia store in Chaoyang District analyzed to reporters that in recent years, the demand for improved properties in the Beijing real estate market has accounted for 60-70% of transactions. Previously, the policy of "transferring second-hand houses with collateral" has greatly shortened the transaction cycle of "serial orders". After the implementation of "recognizing houses but not loans", the customer group of "selling one to buy one" will be the main target for developers.
He further gave an example that if a family currently owns a two bedroom apartment in Beijing for 7 million yuan, the total budget for the family's previous home replacement may have been 8.5 million yuan. After the implementation of the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy, the available loan space for the family has increased, and it may be converted to purchasing products with a total price of more than 10 million yuan, better layout, and better quality. This is undoubtedly a great benefit for developers who have quality improvement residential projects.
With sales expectations boosting, it is not uncommon for new housing projects to announce early withdrawal of opening discounts.
On the morning of the 2nd, First Financial called a sales office as a homebuyer, and the staff said that starting today, the discount of 2 points on the opening has been fully recovered, and the small apartment units of around 77-90 square meters have been basically sold out. "If you really want to purchase this type of apartment and can make a 20% down payment within 7 days, and promise to pay the remaining down payment as soon as possible, then we can coordinate to clear customers who have overdue down payments before." said the staff member.
Differentiation of mentality among second-hand property owners
For many exchange groups who consider "selling one buy one", selling a house is the first step in changing houses.
On the evening of the 1st, the new policy of "recognizing a house but not a loan" was just introduced in Beijing. The real estate agent in Chaoyang District told reporters, "That night, we worked overtime to contact the owners who had previously consulted about selling second-hand houses. Now we can take action."
Ms. Li is one of the homeowners who received a call from a real estate agent last night. She told reporters that she has a three bedroom, two living room property in Chaoyang. A month ago, she consulted with an agent about the sales of second-hand houses. At that time, the agent suggested reducing the price by 60000 yuan before listing it. Last night, the agent advised her to list it at a higher price than the recent transaction price. As Ms. Li only has a demand for selling houses and does not intend to purchase enough properties in Beijing, she plans to wait until the inventory in the area is depleted before listing.
In another residential area in Chaoyang, which was built around 2000, the reporter learned from the owners and real estate agents that there is also a polarization of mentality among the owners of second-hand houses.
"At present, the overall listed housing prices in the community have not risen and are still at a low point. For example, a 120 square meter listed housing was initially listed for sale at 8.65 million yuan in May, but dropped to 8.42 million yuan in July and a decrease of 230000 yuan in two months. Yesterday, after the implementation of the new policy, the owners did not propose a price increase, but there may be no room for further negotiation," a real estate agent responsible for the sale of second-hand housing in the community told reporters.
Another real estate agent told reporters that one hour after the new policy was announced, a homeowner who had just been listed for less than half a month chose to withdraw their property from the intermediary platform. "Owners' expectations have become more optimistic, except for those who are in a hurry to collect payments and exchange houses. It is possible that in the next few months, the listed prices of second-hand houses will show an overall upward trend."
A homeowner in the community who only sold their properties in the second quarter of this year told reporters that although it was a pity to sell at a low point, there are currently many homogeneous properties in the area, with a large number of second-hand houses listed. In addition, the housing age in the community is relatively old, so it is estimated that the price increase will not be too large. Due to her children working in another city, she sold the only property in Beijing in the first half of the year and had no plans to buy another house in Beijing. "I have rented a master bedroom in the community now and will move in with my children after retirement."
"Before the implementation of the new policy, the number of second-hand housing listings in Beijing had exceeded 150000 units. After the implementation of the new policy, it is expected that the number of second-hand housing listings will further increase in the short term. Whether the transaction volume can further recover in the future will determine whether prices will stop falling, but this process may be relatively long." The aforementioned Tongzhou real estate agency told reporters.
According to data from China Index Research Institute, in August, the prices of new houses in Beijing increased by 0.03% month on month, but the prices of second-hand houses decreased by 0.22% month on month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline.
Does it mean that second-hand property owners who have not yet made a move will miss out on the first round of housing exchange opportunities? The aforementioned Tongzhou real estate agent stated that it is not entirely true. He said that currently some customers choose to view both new houses and second-hand houses for sale. When they find a suitable new house, they will choose to pay the new house deposit first, and then continue to complete the new house purchase process after the second-hand house is sold and the loan is settled through "mortgage transfer".
Chen Sheng, President of China Real Estate Data Research Institute, stated in an interview with First Financial that Beijing's implementation of "recognizing houses but not loans" in different regions has indeed exceeded market expectations. This may be due to the fact that the "golden September and silver October" of the real estate market has arrived, leaving little time for boosting consumption in the real estate market this year. In the process of "recognizing a house but not a loan", the supply of Beijing's second-hand housing market will increase rapidly in the short term. It is indeed necessary to be vigilant whether new supply will form new demand, but it is unlikely that there will be a problem of "selling" in the second-hand housing market in Beijing.
"If there is a sell-off in the second-hand housing market, it means that after the corresponding supply is released, it has not entered the housing market and further formed an upgraded consumer demand. However, overall, about 60% of consumers in Beijing still hope to 'sell old for new'." Chen Sheng said.
Wang Yeqiang holds similar views. He further told reporters that this time, Beijing's real estate regulation policies have changed the exploratory fine-tuning characteristics of the past, exceeded expectations, and implemented "house recognition but not loan recognition" across the entire area, which has a significant impact on the market. For the second-hand housing market, due to the large demand for improvement, some residential areas may experience an increase in listing volume in the short term, and there may be a significant differentiation between new and second-hand housing markets. But with the implementation of the subsequent loose policy tools in the Beijing real estate market, the recovery of the macro economy, including the rigid housing demand suppressed during the epidemic and the improvement demand waiting for policy implementation, gradually entering the market, the second-hand housing market is expected to gradually recover and enter an active period.
