Evolution of Changes, Accumulation of Risk Tide, Mighty Development of New Opportunities - Scanning the Changes in the International Situation in the Middle of the Year | World | Risk Tide

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 13 (Xinhua) - Topic: Evolution of Changes, Accumulation of Risks, and the Mighty Trend of Cultivating New Opportunities - Scanning the International Situation in the Middle of the Year

Xinhua News Agency reporter

Looking back at the first half of the year, the accelerating pace of world changes seems to be constantly impacting the nerves of the world. The United States continues to create factional confrontations on a global scale, and the Ukrainian crisis is showing a long-term trend. The global economy is facing the test of low growth, and the trend of de dollarization in the international monetary system is becoming increasingly evident. The widespread occurrence of extreme high temperatures in the northern hemisphere has made it more urgent to address climate change. At the same time, the new development of artificial intelligence technology drives a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation to accelerate.

The Middle East is experiencing a wave of reconciliation, and developing countries are rapidly awakening their sense of autonomy, becoming more active on the international stage. At the same time, China's diplomacy has pressed the "accelerator button" to inject more certainty and positive energy into the turbulent and changing world.

The United States continues to raise the risk of a "new Cold War"

Currently, political polarization in the United States is becoming increasingly intense, and social fragmentation is intensifying. The US government attempts to shift domestic crises by creating factional confrontations internationally, continuously increasing the risk of the world falling into a new Cold War.

Since the beginning of this year, in order to maintain its hegemony and self-interest, the United States has continued to push for the postponement of the war in Ukraine, forcibly matched Japan South Korea relations, and promoted military cooperation between the United States, Britain, and Australia, with the intention of disrupting peace and stability in Asia, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region; In regions such as Africa, Latin America, and the South Pacific, the United States continues to create a tense atmosphere and uses exclusive means to disrupt normal economic and trade cooperation.

The United States is going further and further down the wrong path of suppressing China in all aspects: continuing to promote decoupling and disconnection with China, especially in the field of technology, in order to compress China's development space in the forefront of science and technology; To conceal the intention of decoupling, throwing the so-called "de risk" rhetoric is essentially a new bottle of old wine, changing the soup without changing the medicine; Repeatedly provoking confrontation in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, embodying the One China principle, and continuously strengthening the US military's presence in the South China Sea region.

Li Yan, Executive Director of the Institute of World Politics at the China Institute of Modern International Relations, pointed out that senior US officials have also proposed the "New Washington Consensus" in an attempt to find a solution to contain China from an institutional perspective. Li Zheng, Associate Researcher at the American Institute of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, noticed that the US government has taken measures to contain China in multiple fields such as key raw materials, emerging technologies, markets, and standard setting, and is attempting to coordinate and promote them globally.

In the first half of the year, the United States openly coerced allies such as the European Union to restrict the export of semiconductor production equipment to China; At the G7 summit, the United States lacked respect for its allies, making it clearer to the international community that the so-called G7 is actually a "1+6". The United States will mercilessly "harvest" its allies when necessary.

The various actions of the United States indicate that this declining superpower is still attempting to rely on its own economic strength, which accounts for more than 20% of global GDP, to maximize its own selfish interests and dominate in terms of rules, standards, and discourse power. This hegemonic logic has been widely resisted on a global scale.

Richard Hass, former president of the US Foreign Relations Commission who has served in the US government and security agencies for a long time, recently pointed out that the real danger for the United States lies domestically, and the most serious threat to world security currently facing the United States itself.

The Ukrainian crisis is showing an expanding and long-term trend

Since the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, there has been a shift in attack and defense between Russia and Ukraine. Recently, the Ukrainian army has begun a partial counterattack. The Russian side stated that the Ukrainian armed forces suffered heavy losses. Russian President Putin pointed out that the military losses in Ukraine indicate that Western countries intend to fight against Russia until the last Ukrainian.

The prolonged conflict has brought more disasters to the local people's livelihoods. The destruction of the Kakhovka hydropower station has affected the production and daily life of 1.4 million people.

It is worth noting that the United States and the West have repeatedly broken through their commitments and continuously improved the performance of their aid to Ukraine. From initially only providing helmets and individual anti tank missiles, to now providing NATO active main battle tanks and armored vehicles, and even showing signs of easing their stance on assisting Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, including depleted uranium and cluster bombs.

Han Lu, Deputy Director of the Eurasian Institute of the China Academy of International Studies, said that while the United States is delivering lethal weapons to the Ukrainian battlefield, it is actively fueling the conflict and obstructing peace talks, attempting to achieve "two birds with one stone" by preventing the EU from achieving strategic autonomy and continuously consuming and suppressing Russia.

The Russian economy has shown resilience under the heavy pressure of Western sanctions. Official data shows that Russia's current inflation level and debt to GDP ratio are lower than those of many Western countries, and its unemployment rate remains at a relatively low level. The trade between multiple countries in South Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and other regions with Russia continues to grow significantly. Western public opinion acknowledges that the Russian economy has "successfully withstood unprecedented severe sanctions from the West.".

On the one hand, it is the United States and the West that fuel the fire, and on the other hand, developing countries generally refuse to take sides, and the multipolar trend of seeking peace, development, and cooperation is becoming increasingly powerful.

Many countries around the world face the challenge of "low growth"

At the end of last year and beginning of this year, multiple international institutions predicted that the global economy would fall into recession and high inflation. Recently, the World Bank and the United Nations raised their global economic growth expectations for this year to 2.1% and 2.3% respectively, indicating that the global economy may have been more optimistic than expected in the past six months.

However, low growth remains a daunting challenge that many countries around the world urgently need to address. The World Bank believes that, except for some economies that have performed well, the overall global economic growth is expected to be weak in the next two years. The Chief Economist of the World Bank, Gil, said that the global economy is in an "unstable" state, and economic growth in multiple regions, except for East and South Asia, is difficult to meet the needs of social development. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also believes that global economic growth is on a "long and winding road".

The global economic growth dilemma is caused by the overlapping and interweaving of multiple factors. Zhang Yuncheng, Director of the Institute of World Economics at the Chinese Academy of Modern International Relations, believes that from a cyclical perspective, the global economy is in a long-term downward phase; From the perspective of economic order, the United States, in order to maintain its hegemonic position, forms factions and creates artificial confrontations, disrupting the normal operation of the global economy.

Zhang Yuncheng said that there have been significant changes in the logic of world economic development, and political and security logic is rapidly surpassing economic and market logic. The phenomenon of politicization, instrumentalization, and weaponization of economic factors is becoming increasingly severe, and the industrial and supply chains are partially dismantled and reconstructed. The global economic governance system is showing signs of fragmentation.

The trend of "de dollarization" is more pronounced

In the first half of the year, multiple US banks such as Silicon Valley Bank exploded one after another, and the US federal government debt ceiling crisis resurfaced, which drew global attention and intensified concerns about US financial security and distrust of the US dollar.

Interviewed experts such as Sun Lipeng, associate researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the China Institute of Modern International Relations, believe that bank failures are further exposed to systemic risks such as poor regulation of the US financial system and mismatched balance sheets under the background of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. This also reflects the backlash effect of US dollar hegemony on the US economy. In addition, the drama of the US government debt ceiling crisis continues to repeat, causing continuous depletion of US government credit and the value of US dollar assets such as US bonds, further exacerbating the world's distrust of the US dollar.

Analysts point out that the global process of de dollarization has inevitably begun. During the first half of the year, Chinese and French oil giants completed their first cross-border natural gas RMB settlement transaction. Brazil announced local currency settlement for trade with China, India and Malaysia agreed to settle trade in Indian rupees, ASEAN member countries agreed to strengthen the use of local currencies, and multiple countries signed various types of local currency swap agreements

A series of facts indicate that many countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar and establish efficient, low-risk, and independent financial settlement systems. The diversification of the international monetary system continues to evolve globally, and currencies other than the US dollar are increasingly being used in international trade and investment.

Extreme weather warning and urgent response to climate change

Affected by global climate change and other factors, multiple regions such as North America, South Asia, and Europe are experiencing frequent extreme high temperatures and severe floods. International research institutions predict that the likelihood of record breaking heatwaves in countries such as Spain and Portugal this year will increase by at least 100 times.

In recent years, signs of global warming have become increasingly apparent. The melting of glaciers is accelerating, the range of permafrost is decreasing, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather events in multiple countries and regions are becoming increasingly severe... The impact of climate change on the Earth's ecosystem is becoming increasingly significant, bringing new risks to human health, production and life.

UN Secretary General Guterres has warned that the Earth is rapidly approaching the critical point of climate change, and it is urgent for the international community to work together to address climate change. On World Earth Day on April 22 this year, Guterres once again called on the international community to accelerate climate action.

Developed countries have a historical responsibility for global climate change and should take the lead in significantly reducing emissions, and quickly fill the annual committed funding gap of $100 billion in climate financing. A study published in the UK journal Nature Sustainable Development in June this year showed that about 90% of global excess carbon emissions come from developed countries such as the United States, which should pay compensation to low-carbon emitting countries to ensure that the related goals of addressing climate change can be achieved.

Congolese President Sassou recently pointed out that the commitment made by developed countries to provide $100 billion annually to help developing countries cope with climate change has never been fulfilled since its establishment in 2009.

Multiple countries launch a new round of artificial intelligence competition

At the beginning of this year, the "superpower" performance of generative artificial intelligence in content creation, human-computer interaction, and other aspects made people truly feel that the future has arrived.

Artificial intelligence technologies represented by generative artificial intelligence, big models, and embodied intelligence will revolutionize industries such as media, film and television, intelligent manufacturing, e-commerce and esports, and biopharmaceuticals. A report by multinational consulting firm McKinsey predicts that the widespread application of generative artificial intelligence technology will bring at least $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion in annual growth to the global economy, contributing an economic scale equivalent to that of a UK.

Multinational technology giants are competing to increase investment in artificial intelligence research and development, accelerating the integration of their products with artificial intelligence applications. Google has released a new generation of conversational AI systems, Microsoft has integrated ChatGPT's search engine and browser, and AI chip leader Nvidia has announced a series of new products and services related to artificial intelligence, covering multiple fields such as robot design, gaming features, and advertising services.

A report recently released by the China Institute of Science and Technology Information shows that China's artificial intelligence big models are currently showing a booming development trend. According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of May this year, about 80 large-scale models with parameters above 1 billion have been released nationwide. From the global distribution of released large models, China and the United States are significantly ahead, accounting for over 80% of the global total.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, the impact of this technology on employment, privacy protection, and other aspects of human society has raised more concerns, and the call to set up "barriers" for the development of artificial intelligence is becoming increasingly widespread.

Developing countries are surging with a trend of unity and self-improvement

In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran have resumed diplomatic relations under the mediation of China, relations between the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other countries and Qatar have moved towards normalization, and Syria has returned to the League of Arab States... This region, which has been in turmoil for a long time due to external hegemonic interference, has sparked a "wave of reconciliation". Seeking peace, development, and anti interference has become the common aspiration and trend of regional countries.

In South America, Brazilian President Lula exclaimed, "We don't have time to waste. South America should once again embark on the path of unity." South American leaders recently gathered in the Brazilian capital, Brasilia, to achieve a long-awaited reunion. The attending parties issued consensus documents on strengthening regional cooperation and accelerating South American integration.

In the Asia Pacific region, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has come into full force for 10 ASEAN countries and 15 signatory countries including Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand, injecting new impetus into regional economic integration and comprehensively enhancing the level of regional trade and investment liberalization and facilitation.

In Africa, negotiations on a free trade area agreement on the African continent are steadily advancing, which is expected to accelerate industrialization in Africa. The latest report shows a strong recovery in trade between China and Africa, with more and more African specialty products entering the Chinese market, such as wild anchovy from Kenya, essential oils from Madagascar, gemstones from Zambia, and wood carvings from Zimbabwe.

The cooperation mechanism among the BRICS countries has gained widespread recognition and support from the international community, with multiple countries including Bangladesh, Egypt, and Nigeria submitting applications to join. Cuban President Diaz Canel said that the BRICS countries defend multipolarity and multilateralism and are "providing possibilities for establishing a more fair, just, and beneficial global international economic order.". The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has officially accepted Iran as a member state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and approved the signing of a memorandum of obligations for Belarus to join the organization. The development and growth of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization inject more certainty and positive energy into a turbulent world.

Contribute Chinese strength to building a better world

In the face of a turbulent and changing world, China focuses on the common destiny of humanity, always advocates cooperation and win-win as well as harmonious coexistence, adheres to responding to risks and challenges through development, and fulfills the responsibility of a responsible major country. The global security initiative, global development initiative, and global civilization initiative proposed by China provide direction, consensus, and strength for solving common problems faced by humanity.

China points out a new path to maintain global security. Since the beginning of this year, from the official release of the Global Security Initiative Concept Paper to the successful resumption of diplomatic relations in Saudi Arabia, and then to the promotion of peace talks on the Ukrainian crisis, China has provided ideological inspiration for solving the global "security deficit" and brought positive energy to the world through solid actions. Weng Shijie, Chairman of the Asia Pacific "the Belt and Road" Joint Policy Committee, said that China's global security initiative fills the gap in the global security architecture and represents the power of justice in contemporary global security governance. Egyptian sinologist Farjani said that China's initiatives and plans point the way for establishing a more just and reasonable world.

China injects positive energy into promoting world development. Half of the 32 practical measures have been implemented or achieved early results, and nearly 40 developing countries are benefiting from them. The progress report on the implementation of the Global Development Initiative, recently released in Beijing, shows that China's series of practical measures to promote global development initiatives have brought tangible benefits to all countries, especially developing countries. The representative of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization in China, Kang Bosi, said that China's global development initiative brings hope for addressing global challenges and the development needs of developing countries.

In the context of a sluggish global economic outlook, the Chinese economy has shown a clear upward trend this year. The high-quality development of the Chinese economy provides the world with more advanced technologies and a vast market, and also injects more confidence into the world to quickly overcome the low tide of economic growth. The President of the World Economic Forum, Schwab, said, "The whole world has benefited from China's development."

China provides new solutions to promote the progress of human civilization. In March of this year, China first proposed the Global Civilization Initiative, playing a new chapter in human civilization dialogue. This important initiative advocates using cultural exchange to transcend cultural barriers, cultural mutual learning to transcend cultural conflicts, and cultural inclusiveness to transcend cultural superiority, further enriching and expanding the practical path of building a community with a shared future for mankind. This year, China has invited Central Asian countries to participate in the "Cultural Silk Road" plan and accelerate the establishment of cultural centers for each other; The official launch of the "Monkey King" series in Arabic international version, and the popular drama "Mountain and Sea Love" about poverty alleviation work has been broadcasted in Arab countries such as Sudan and Egypt in Arabic; After the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Honduras, China Hong Kong archaeological cooperation ushered in a new chapter... Many people believe that China's proposal and implementation of the Global Civilization Initiative will effectively promote global cultural exchanges and mutual learning, which is conducive to building a community with a shared future for mankind.