The decline in Sichuan and Yunnan has led to a dual trend of electricity supply this summer, with Inner Mongolia leading the way in power generation

The peak summer electricity season is coming to an end, and this summer, the national electricity supply is experiencing a balance of water and fire. The power generation of provinces mainly relying on hydropower such as Sichuan and Yunnan continues to decline, while provinces mainly relying on thermal power such as Inner Mongolia continue to grow, with Inner Mongolia ranking first in the country in terms of power generation.

Inner Mongolia ranks first in power generation

According to data recently released by the Inner Mongolia Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size in the region reached 411.72 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. In July, industrial enterprises above designated size in the region generated 65.52 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, setting a new historical high for that month, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9%.

In addition, according to the database of the National Bureau of Statistics, Inner Mongolia ranked first in power generation among 31 provinces from January to July. Based on the data from recent years, Inner Mongolia's power generation has maintained a high-speed growth trend. In 2022, Inner Mongolia ranked first in the country with 644.03 billion kilowatt hours, surpassing Guangdong.

Lin Boqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute at Xiamen University, told First Financial that Inner Mongolia is a major energy province with abundant coal resources. Compared to other coal rich provinces such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia is an emerging coal development area with resource advantages, and thermal power generation is growing rapidly. At the same time, in recent years, Inner Mongolia's new energy generation such as photovoltaic and wind power has also grown rapidly.

The wind turbines inside the Huhe Machang Wind and Photovoltaic Power Plant in Ulanhot City, Xing'an League, Inner Mongolia. Xinhua News Agency

Data shows that from January to July, the new energy generation of industrial enterprises above designated size in Inner Mongolia reached 85.36 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, accounting for 20.7% of the total power generation. Among them, wind power generation increased by 26.9% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 0.8 percentage points faster than the first half of the year, driving a 4.2 percentage point increase in power generation in the entire region; Solar power generation increased by 6.5% year-on-year.

In previous years, electricity supply was guaranteed during peak summer seasons, with Sichuan and Yunnan being the main power output regions. A large amount of electricity was transmitted to the eastern coastal areas through the West East Power Transmission Channel. However, due to factors such as reduced upstream water supply, the power generation of the two provinces has performed poorly this year, with a continuous decline in power generation and a decline in power supply capacity.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics database, from January to July, the cumulative power generation of Sichuan and Yunnan reached 240.57 billion and 196.1 billion kilowatt hours, respectively, a decrease of 8% and 8.7%. In the peak season of hydroelectric power generation in June and July, Sichuan's hydroelectric power generation decreased by 46.9% and 24.5% respectively, while Yunnan's hydroelectric power generation decreased by 31.2% and 11% respectively.

The installed capacity of hydropower in Sichuan and Yunnan accounts for nearly 80% of the total installed capacity, resulting in a situation of relying on nature for a living. The "Analysis and Prediction Report on the National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation in the First Half of 2023" released by the China Electricity Council shows that the hydropower generation in the first half of the year decreased by 22.9% year-on-year, and the proportion of coal-fired power generation to the total electricity generation in the whole caliber remained at 60%, fully playing the role of providing a bottom line guarantee.

During the peak summer season, the decrease in hydropower supply has led to an increase in demand for thermal power.

According to data from China Electric Power Union, in the first half of the year, the country transmitted 819.9 billion kilowatt hours of electricity across provinces, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. Among them, Inner Mongolia transmitted 138.8 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 16.9% of the country's inter provincial transmission electricity, a year-on-year increase of 15.7%; The electricity transmission from Sichuan and Yunnan decreased by 12.9% and 23.2% year-on-year, respectively, mainly due to the significant limitation of hydropower output caused by the shortage of incoming water and the high base in the same period last year.

A report released by Chengdu Shuodian Technology Co., Ltd., which focuses on electricity market research and data analysis, shows that in July, the cumulative year-on-year increase in electricity supply and consumption by Sichuan Power Grid was 3.3%; The cumulative year-on-year decrease in hydropower grid connection was 13.1%; The cumulative year-on-year increase in thermal power grid connection was 16.6%; The cumulative year-on-year increase in new energy grid power is 25.5%; The purchased electricity has increased by 6 times compared to last year, while the electricity in Sichuan has decreased by 44.6% and the electricity sent out has decreased by 78.8%.

Will the pattern of power transmission from the west to the east change?

Sichuan, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia are all major export destinations for the West East power transmission. Especially in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces, due to their advantages in hydropower resources, they play an important role in ensuring national electricity supply in the summer. Large cascade hydropower stations in Sichuan Province have become the main power supply base in the eastern coastal areas.

Baihetan Hydropower Station. Xinhua News Agency

In order to deliver hydropower from Sichuan to the eastern coastal areas, there are currently six ultra-high voltage power lines built in Sichuan, including Xiangjiaba Shanghai, Xiluodu Zhejiang, Jinping Jiangsu, Yazhong Jiangxi, Baihetan Jiangsu, and Baihetan Zhejiang ultra-high voltage projects.

Due to the weak output of hydroelectric power generation for two consecutive years, coupled with the significant increase in electricity consumption in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces in the future, the "Sichuan Province Power Grid Development Plan" released in December last year raised the province's electricity load forecast for 2025 from 71 million to 89 million kilowatts. Under such circumstances, will the pattern of power transmission from the west to the east change?

Compared with Sichuan, while Inner Mongolia's power generation is increasing, related investments are still growing, providing growth momentum for the future.

According to the data of Inner Mongolia Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, fixed assets investment in the region maintained a rapid growth momentum, with a year-on-year growth of 31.2%. The investment growth in key areas such as industry, new energy, and wind and solar power generation is quite impressive. Among them, the layout of new energy is steadily advancing, and investment in wind and solar power generation is growing rapidly. From January to July, the investment in wind and photovoltaic power generation in the entire region increased by 80.8% year-on-year.

However, Lin Boqiang stated that the situation of insufficient incoming water encountered by Sichuan and Yunnan in the past two years is only temporary and may change next year. We need to look at the power supply situation again when there is a large amount of incoming water. He believes that the pattern of power transmission from west to east will not change.

Not only that, Wang Yongping, Executive Director of Sichuan New Power System Research Institute, stated in a recent public forum that in addition to Sichuan's unique hydropower resources, the second business card of Sichuan is the new energy plan for the 14th and 15th Five Year Plans, because hydropower may increase by more than 20 million kilowatts and reach the ceiling. "What we can do in our hands is new energy.".

In June this year, the Kela Phase I photovoltaic power station located in Yajiang County, Garze Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province was connected to the grid for power generation, marking the world's first million kilowatt level "water solar complementary" power station officially put into operation. This power station is the first phase of the "Water Light Complementary" project of the Yalong River Lianghekou Hydroelectric Power Station. The power station is connected to the Lianghekou Hydroelectric Power Station, which is 50 kilometers away and has an installed capacity of 3 million kilowatts, through a 500kV transmission line, to achieve photovoltaic power generation and hydropower "bundled" transmission.

In the Development Plan, Sichuan proposes that the installed capacity of power generation will reach 165.6 million kilowatts by 2025, photovoltaic power will increase from 1.96 million kilowatts in 2021 to 22 million kilowatts in 2025, wind power will increase from 5.27 million kilowatts in 2021 to 10 million kilowatts in 2025, and thermal power will also increase from 18.25 million kilowatts to 27.6 million kilowatts.