The constitutional process is full of twists and turns! Is the political situation in this country undergoing a resurgence? Election | Right wing | Process

On May 7th, Chile held elections for the Constituent Assembly Representative Committee. The committee consists of 51 members, with the exception of one representative from a permanent ethnic group, the remaining seats belong to different political parties. The right-wing political party, the Chilean Republican Party, which tends to maintain the current constitution, became the biggest winner in the election, winning 23 seats on the committee. The "Unity Alliance" composed of eight left-wing parties and the "Security Alliance", which includes the main centre right forces, won 16 seats and 11 seats respectively, becoming a supporting role in the new constitutional process.

Constitutionalism was once a hot topic in Chile's national politics and social life, but the results of this election show that the main concerns of the people have changed, and Chile's political ecology has also undergone new changes.

On the evening of April 20, Chilean President Boric delivered a televised speech at the Moneda Palace, the presidential palace, according to Xinhua News Agency.

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The constitutional process has undergone ups and downs

The current constitution of Chile was established in 1980, during the reign of Pinochet. The military government "returned politics to the people" in 1990, and since then, the constitution has been amended multiple times and remains to this day. In October 2019, Chile experienced nationwide riots and protests due to intensified social conflicts. One of the biggest demands of the people at that time was to amend the constitution to improve the welfare level of the people, promote social equality and justice, and reduce excessive privatization.

In the October 2020 referendum, nearly 80% of voters supported the development of a new constitution, marking Chile's journey towards constitutional development. In May 2021, the Constituent Assembly was elected through a nationwide referendum. Among all 155 seats, the center right ruling coalition only held 37 seats, while the remaining seats were occupied by left-wing, center left, and independent representatives. This laid the groundwork for the development of a more radical initial draft of the constitution in the future. In December of the same year, the emerging left-wing political leader Boric won the election, creating more favorable conditions for the birth of the new constitution draft.

However, in the referendum held in September 2022, over 60% of voters rejected the initial draft of the constitution submitted by the Constituent Assembly. The reason for this is that on the one hand, right-wing forces have risen, and on the other hand, some provisions of the draft text are widely considered "too radical", such as descriptions of the nature of the country and the restructuring of the legislative body. Chile restarted its constitutional process in early 2023. In order to draft a new constitution more scientifically and efficiently, the new constitutional process is escorted by the "three carriages", namely the "expert committee", "supervisory committee", and "constitutional committee". The expert committee and supervisory committee were established in March this year. The former consists of 24 authoritative experts and prominent figures, with half of the members elected by the House of Representatives and the other half by the Senate, who will draft the text of a new constitution; The latter is composed of 14 legal experts elected by the Senate, whose main responsibility is to ensure the legitimacy of the new constitution.

Unlike the previous two institutions, the Constitutional Committee elected on May 7th was elected through a nationwide referendum, representing public opinion. The committee will discuss, propose amendments, and vote on the constitutional text submitted by the expert committee from June to November. The confirmation of the new constitution draft will be completed before November 7th, and a nationwide referendum will be held on December 17th.

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Public Concerns: From Constitutionalism to Public Safety

The election results of the Constitutional Committee signify another blow to the Chilean left-wing progressive forces, following their defeat in the constitutional referendum in September last year. The left-wing "Solidarity Alliance" has less than one-third of the total seats on the committee, while the Republican Party on the right side of the political spectrum and the "Security Alliance" have a combined seat of more than 3/5, indicating that they have veto power over the initial draft of the constitution. It is worth mentioning that the surge in invalid votes and the sudden rise of the Republican Party are the two major characteristics of this election, reflecting that the main concern of the Chilean people is not constitutional law, but public safety.

It is the responsibility and obligation of the Chilean people to participate in the constitutional committee's vote, which means that the vote on May 7th is mandatory, so about 11 million voters walked out of their homes to the polling station. However, up to 21.53% of voters cast invalid votes, meaning they either did not check as required or cast blank votes. The proportion of invalid votes is even 0.46 percentage points higher than that of the Security Alliance, which has won 11 seats. It is worth mentioning that in multiple national polls held in Chile in recent years, the election for the establishment of the Constituent Assembly in 2021 had the highest number of invalid votes, accounting for only 3.04%.

Regarding the abnormal phenomenon of a high proportion of invalid votes in the election of the Constitutional Assembly Representative Committee, Ra ú l Ergeta, Director of the Institute of Advanced Studies at the University of Santiago in Chile and PhD in Political Science, pointed out that many voters did not realize the importance of this election, and there were also many who were not familiar with the new constitutional process. More than one-fifth of voters cast invalid votes, which is enough to indicate that the public no longer regards constitutional making as a key focus of national political life.

In recent years, the social security situation in Chile has been deteriorating, and Boric has even decided to add $1.5 billion specifically to the government budget for 2023 to combat organized crime and ensure the safety of law enforcement personnel. In fact, the reason why the Chilean Republican Party has become the dominant force in the Constitutional Committee is largely due to its attitude towards public safety issues that aligns with the expectations of the people.

Professor Miguel Angel Lopez from the Institute of International Relations at the University of Chile also believes that discussions about the constitution are no longer as important as before. People are now more concerned about security and public order, and the Republican Party's attitude on this issue has won the trust and support of the public. According to a survey conducted by the authoritative Chilean polling agency Cadum, nearly half of the voters who voted for the Republican Party were satisfied with the party's tough stance on combating crime and restricting immigration.

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New Changes in Chile's Political Ecology

The election results of the Constitutional Committee not only reflect the main concerns of the Chilean people, but also reflect the new changes in the country's political ecology.

On the one hand, the left-wing progressive forces have declined in the political landscape of Chile. The emerging left-wing political forces represented by Borich have always regarded "constitutionalism" as their main political goal, but the left-wing government failed to achieve the constitutional goal overnight. Juan Antonio Koloma, a senator from the Independent Democratic Alliance, believes that the left-wing government's plan to rebuild the country had already failed as early as September last year, as the new constitutional draft supported by President Boric had only a 38% approval rate in the referendum. To some extent, voters supporting the Republican Party and casting a large number of invalid votes in the Constitutional Committee elections are "angry votes" expressing dissatisfaction with the government. On the evening after the election results were announced, Boris ć made a speech at the first time calling on all parties to actively engage in dialogue in order to successfully achieve the constitutional goals.

On the other hand, the phenomenon of political polarization in Chile is becoming increasingly severe. In the first round of voting for the 2021 presidential election, due to strong centrist forces, Republican candidate Caster and emerging left-wing party coalition "pro dignity" Borich only received 27.91% and 25.83% of the votes, respectively, so they had to go to the second round of voting. However, in the election of the Constituent Assembly Representative Committee, the center left alliance "Everything for Chile" composed of the Christian Democratic Party, the Democratic Progressive Party, and the Social Democratic Radical Party did not win any seats, which is rare in Chilean political history. At the same time, the People's Party on the center right has also won zero seats.

It is not difficult to find that political parties or party alliances that are currently in the middle of the political spectrum are difficult to win the favor of the Chilean people. Anna Ayuso, Senior Researcher at the Barcelona Center for International Affairs, pointed out that the current Chilean political situation is "a very polarized stage", with Castro becoming the benchmark on the right wing and Boric firmly establishing a foothold on the left wing.

The game of political power in Chile is becoming increasingly fierce. The Republican Party has become the "new force" in Chilean politics, and its victory in the Constituent Committee election may inspire Castor to participate in the 2025 election. Although the party's achievements are impressive, it is still in a weak position in both houses of Congress, making it difficult to impose greater constraints on the Borich government beyond the constitutional agenda. Whether the draft of the new constitution text formulated by the "three carriages" can be successfully passed in the national referendum held in December this year will test the ability of the left-wing progressive forces. If the government can achieve results in reforms in areas such as education, healthcare, and pensions, it will win the trust and support of the Chilean people.