The Civil Aviation Administration of China predicts that it will become popular in 2019, the first summer transportation peak season route after Class B and Class B management | Passengers | Civil Aviation Administration of China

"This year's summer travel is the first summer travel after the" Class B and Class B management ". The majority of tourists travel in a concentrated manner, and there is a strong demand for travel such as vacation and visiting relatives and friends."

At today's routine press conference of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the bureau made a prediction for the upcoming summer transportation market, predicting that nearly 1.95 million passengers will travel by air every day during the summer transportation period, with an average of 16500 guaranteed flights per day.

However, compared to before the pandemic, the recovery of the international aviation market still has a long way to go.

The quantity and price of summer travel tickets have increased simultaneously

The annual summer transportation is the peak season for airlines to make money, except for the Spring Festival transportation. In terms of the popular domestic aviation route transportation market, the Civil Aviation Administration of China has recently issued a notice to support airlines to work overtime on popular routes during the summer transportation period, optimize domestic routes for summer transportation, continue to promote the construction of a "seamless and fully connected" air transportation network, encourage airlines to actively expand and cultivate the third and fourth tier aviation markets, and meet the concentrated travel needs of passengers during the summer transportation period.

According to the prediction of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the daily average number of domestic passenger flights guaranteed during this year's summer travel period is 13600, transporting 1.83 million domestic passengers, an increase of 11% and 7% respectively compared to 2019 before the epidemic.

In the international air transportation market, the Civil Aviation Administration of China is also continuously promoting the smooth and orderly recovery of international passenger flights. According to the latest data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the actual number of international passenger flights executed last week reached 5822, operating in 61 countries. It is expected that international passenger flights will increase to over 6000 per week during the summer vacation period. The Civil Aviation Administration of China stated that it will continue to promptly approve international flight applications from domestic and foreign airlines, ensuring the safe, stable, and orderly resumption of international passenger flights.

Ctrip data also shows that as of June 14th, the search popularity for domestic summer tickets has exceeded 25.3% of 2019, and the search popularity for outbound summer tickets has also exceeded the same period in 2019.

In terms of ticket prices, as of June 14th, the average price of domestic one-way tickets including tax was 1227 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.4%, and an increase of 15.7% compared to the May Day period.

Among them, many bookings in the western region are popular. For example, the average price of a summer flight to Urumqi is 2022 yuan, a 35% increase from the same period in 2019, and the pre order volume has exceeded 50% of the same period in 2019; The average price of air tickets to Xining is 1466 yuan, an increase of 30% compared to the same period in 2019, and the pre order volume exceeds 50% of the same period in 2019; The average price of air tickets to Dunhuang is 1581 yuan, an increase of 40% compared to the same period in 2019, and the pre order volume exceeds the same period in 2019 by 138%. The average price of summer air tickets to Xishuangbanna is 1134 yuan, an increase of 51% compared to the same period in 2019, and the pre order volume exceeds the same period in 2019 by 134%.

According to Li Yuan, a civil aviation expert, based on the growth of domestic transportation capacity and ticket prices, the low point during the epidemic period has been basically filled. The positive trend of passenger travel during the May Day holiday is expected to continue, while international travel is still in a stage of recovery. Outbound flights have only recovered to about 50% more than before the epidemic. Considering that international leisure travel is more sensitive to ticket prices than business travel, it will still take some time to truly return to the peak.

The recovery status of various international routes

In fact, during the May Day holiday, airlines have tasted the sweetness brought by the explosion of tourism demand after the "Class B and Class B management". However, after the May Day holiday, the demand for air travel has rapidly declined, and ticket prices have also plummeted.

However, as we enter June, ticket prices have begun to rise. According to the Flight Manager app, as of June 14, the domestic ticket orders for travel during the Dragon Boat Festival in 2023 increased by 71.4% compared to 2019, and decreased by 58.03% compared to the May Day period; The average transaction price of domestic air tickets during the 2023 Dragon Boat Festival holiday is 759.92 yuan, an increase of 8.92% year-on-year and a decrease of 24.54% compared to the May Day holiday.

At today's press conference, Sun Wensheng, Deputy Director of the Comprehensive Department of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, revealed that the entire industry completed a passenger transportation volume of 51.698 million in May, a month on month increase of 2.8%, and recovered to 94.8% of the same period in 2019. Among them, the scale of domestic passenger transportation exceeded that before the epidemic, with a growth of 2.6% compared to the same period in 2019.

The scale of the civil aviation freight market has also maintained a rebound trend, with the entire industry completing a cargo and postal transportation volume of 590000 tons in May, an increase of 8.4% month on month, and recovering to 94.7% of the same period in 2019.

In May, the entire industry completed 1.041 million hours of transportation aviation flights, a month on month increase of 4.1%; A total of 426000 flights were flown, a month on month increase of 4.8%. The national normal flight rate is 89.5%, which has decreased compared to the previous months.

In recent days, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Jixiang, five listed airlines, have also released their performance reports for May. Among them, Spring Airlines has the highest passenger load factor, but it has not yet reached 90%; Air China, Spring Airlines, and Jixiang Airlines have passenger capacity exceeding 2019, while only Spring Airlines and Jixiang Airlines have passenger turnover exceeding 2019.

In terms of the international route market, the international route passenger volume of the five listed airlines in May was 1.746 million, only recovering to 34.3% of the same period in 2019. Among them, the international route passenger volume of Jixiang Airlines has returned to the pre pandemic level of 50%.

At a recent online performance briefing, Lucky Air revealed that the company will open its first route from Beijing Daxing to Japan and South Korea starting from July 1st, and will also increase flights from Shanghai to Singapore starting from late June. Spring Airlines stated that the recovery of flights between China and Thailand is relatively fast, and the flight volume has recovered to around 70% of the same period in 2019.

Air China has revealed that the recovery process of routes in Europe and the Asia Pacific region in the international market is relatively fast, with investment in the European market exceeding 50% in 2019; China Eastern Airlines stated that the overall international capacity deployment has returned to around 40% of the 2019 international capacity level, and the overall recovery of the China Europe route is faster than that of the China US route; China Southern Airlines stated that currently, the routes with better international recovery are from Guangzhou to Australia, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, while the routes with better revenue levels are from Guangzhou to North America.