The American and Indian abacus is playing with a resounding sound, and Biden is gritting his teeth and shaking hands with Modi India | Cooperation | Biden

On June 21st, Indian Prime Minister Modi began a four-day visit to the United States.

This is not Modi's first visit to the United States. Since 2014, he has visited the United States six times and also had talks with then Vice President Biden. But unlike in the past, the level of invitation from the US government to Modi's visit to the United States this time is a "state visit", the highest level of diplomatic visit, and this is also Modi's first "state visit" to the United States.

Behind such a sweet surface, there is a small calculation being made by both countries. The United States chose to receive Modi at a time of tension between China and India, so that it "turned a blind eye" to India's position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and domestic human rights issues, for obvious reasons. A US magazine claimed that the government prioritizes traditional geopolitics over human rights, and "Biden gritted his teeth to welcome Modi.".

Will this trip really become a turning point in US India relations and join forces to balance China? At present, it can only be said that "ideals are full, reality is bone like".

Unprecedented mutual trust between the United States and India?

Before leaving, Modi stated in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that there is an unprecedented level of trust between the leaders of the United States and India.

"Although he said so, we don't have to take it too seriously," Shen Yi, a professor at the Department of International Politics at Fudan University, told Chao News.

Since the Cold War, India has been a country with a relatively "wavering" stance in the world, adopting pragmatic principles in foreign policy and possessing strong "profit seeking" characteristics. While maintaining relations with Russia, India is also discussing free trade agreements with the UK and the EU.

Earlier, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Biden had asked Modi not to support Russia. Although India did not provide any direct assistance to Moscow, it continued to purchase its natural gas, indirectly helping Russia's economic difficulties during the war, which made the United States dissatisfied.

As for the Indo Pacific economic framework led by the United States, India has also shown a "left and right swing", from actively embracing the concept of "Indo Pacific" in the initial stage, to cooling and iteration in the process, and even trade negotiations to withdraw from the "Indo Pacific economic framework", to now approaching the "Indo Pacific strategy" again, India's foreign policy seems too speculative.

Zhang Li, a researcher at the South Asia Research Institute of Sichuan University, also told Chao News reporters that Modi's remarks before his departure were more based on propaganda needs. The relationship between India and the United States is indeed at an unprecedented height, but not in terms of mutual trust.

The United States is simply trying to compete with China by wooing India, and India's greatest role may be to balance China. However, India's economic strength, military strength, and political influence are not a match for China at all.

"Since the beginning of this year, India's economic recovery has been quite obvious, and the rebound in the economy has led to some inflation in the country's hearts. Moreover, Modi stated that he wants to become a developed country within 25 years, and his strong sense of power makes him unwilling to be led by the United States. The two countries are playing their own calculations, and there is still a certain distance in terms of trust." Zhang Li believes.

Just last month, riots and conflicts continued to erupt in Manipur, northeastern India, causing nearly a hundred deaths and tens of thousands of people to be displaced. Under Modi's leadership, India appeared disorderly and chaotic.

In this situation, the timing of Modi's state visit is very delicate. For India and the United States, both will hold elections next year, and at a time of intense internal conflicts between the two countries, Biden and Modi urgently need to boost their reputation through diplomatic achievements. But the effect will still require a big question mark.

What results will be achieved?

Modi's visit to the United States has a very tight schedule.

He will arrive in New York on the 21st local time to host the International Yoga Day event at the United Nations headquarters; On the 22nd, he will travel to Washington to attend a state banquet and bilateral high-level talks prepared by US President Biden at the White House. He will also be invited again to deliver a speech in Congress; On the 23rd, he will attend a luncheon co hosted by Vice President Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Modi also plans to engage in several carefully planned interactions with the CEO, professionals, and other stakeholders.

On June 20th, the Indian People's Party, to which Modi belongs, also tweeted a picture of Modi giving a speech at a joint session of the US Congress in June 2016, stating that this was the first Indian Prime Minister to give two speeches in the US Congress.

According to the Global Times citing a report from the Russian newspaper Businessman on June 20th, during Modi's visit, the main purpose of the United States was to put India on its side to confront Russia and China. For this, the United States can make many compromises, such as selling attack drones to India and reaching an agreement on joint production of fighter jet engines, including technology transfer.

"Modi's visit to the United States is mainly focused on several aspects. The first is military cooperation. The United States wants to bring India over from Russia, enter the US defense system, and use it to counter China. The second is economic cooperation. As the most populous country and a promising emerging market, if the two countries reach certain economic cooperation, it may squeeze China's economic development." Zhang Li told reporters.

Shortly after Modi's arrival in the United States, according to Global Times, Musk met Modi in New York on the 20th local time. He claimed to have great confidence in India and said that India is more "hopeful" than other major countries. In addition to Tesla's plan to build a factory in India as soon as possible, the two sides will also carry out a "Star Chain" cooperation plan.

"We have seen reports before that the two countries may reach a lot of cooperation. I think that during Modi's visit to the United States, the leaders of the two countries may reach some political and conceptual agreements, but in practical terms, it should be difficult to achieve key cooperation." Shen Yi believes that from a psychological and cognitive perspective, it is important to avoid excessive amplification of the so-called strategic risks and challenges brought about by US India cooperation, maintain strategic determination, patience, and confidence, which is an ideal choice for China.

Moreover, the United States may have overestimated India's role in restraining China.

Although India has surpassed China to become the world's most populous country, it may not be able to replicate China's "demographic dividend" path. At present, there is a significant gap between India and China in terms of development level and economic status.

According to the Indian Economic Monitoring Center, in 2022, India's labor participation rate was only 49.5%, which means more than half of the population has exited the labor market. This number is far lower than the period when China's population dividend began and also lower than the current labor participation rate in China.

On the other hand, for India, engaging in strategic consumption with China cannot be its long-term choice. The essence of its "profit seeking" nature will make American politicians hold a fundamental skepticism towards it, destined that cooperation between the two sides will not last long.