Thailand's re election of Prime Minister today: risking everything for the Thai Party and remote-controlled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra | Candidate | Thailand
Since the general election was held on May 14th, the political situation in Thailand has been dark and unclear, and there is no definite who will be appointed as the 30th Prime Minister. Recently, the Thai parliament announced that it will hold another session of the House and Senate on August 22 to vote for the Prime Minister.
The second ranked candidate in the general election is the Thai party, which has nominated the famous real estate tycoon Sota Ta, who has only been in politics for 175 days, as the candidate for prime minister. He has also formed a coalition government led by the Thai party, with the participation of major political parties other than the Democratic Party in the original ruling coalition. At the same time, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who had been in exile since being overthrown by the military in 2006, announced loudly that he would return to his home country on the same day.
Can he fulfill his wish to ascend to the throne of Prime Minister? What is the relationship between Thaksin's return to China and the ruling party for Thailand? Where will Thai politics develop again?
Far Progressive Party Dreams of Breaking Parliament, Bringing Thailand's Party Up from Behind
On May 22nd, the Far Progressive Party, which received the highest number of votes in the general election, high-profile formed an 8-party ruling coalition, including the Thai Party. However, its leader, Pita, failed to win the first vote on the Prime Minister in both houses of the House and Senate, and was defeated on the battlefield. Afterwards, the Far Progressive Party attempted to nominate Pita for a second time to challenge the position of Prime Minister, but due to some members citing the principle of "non repeatable proposals for the same parliamentary period", they believed that Pita had no right to run for Prime Minister again, which shattered his dream of becoming Prime Minister.
Subsequently, the Far Progressive Party handed over the position of leader of the 8-party alliance to the second ranked Thai party. Therefore, although the Thai party was unable to successfully defend its title in the general election, it still obtained the right to lead and form a cabinet. The Thai party, which has been immersed in politics for a long time, is very observant of the current situation. After taking over the banner, it did not unite with the Far Progressive Party and seek to break the parliamentary "curse" and completely change the political landscape since 2014. Instead, it closely contacted the former ruling coalition political parties such as the Pride Thai party and the council members, and finally concluded that the Far Progressive Party, which attempted to revise Article 112 of the Criminal Law, is the biggest obstacle to political deadlock. Therefore, out of the consideration of "forming a government as soon as possible to relieve the country's difficulties", the Thai party decided to withdraw from the 8-party alliance, decouple from the Far Progressive Party, and announced the abandonment of seeking ruling allies based on ideology.
During this process, the Thai party creatively used multiple political terms such as "disintegration of political poles" and "special government" to explain the behavior of "abandoning alliances and decoupling, and forming new camps". The so-called "disintegration of political poles" is actually no different from the slogan "crossing contradictions" proposed by the leader of the Civic Power Party, Barwe, during the election. That is to say, all political parties can abandon their previous conflicts and even if they have different political stances, they can form a government together. The concept of "special government" is similar to the once popular concept of "national government" in Thai public opinion, which means that the vast majority of political parties join the ruling coalition, and only a few ideological radical parties become opposition parties.
Guided by the concept of "disintegration of political poles", the Thai Party first formed an alliance with the third largest political party, the Pride Thai Party, with 212 seats in the two party House of Representatives as the basic basis for forming a cabinet. Subsequently, it recruited political parties such as the Thai National Party and the Thai National Development Party to join the alliance, bringing the vote count to 238, just 13 votes away from the requirement of more than half of the seats in the House of Representatives.
At this point, there are three options for the Thai party to choose from: one is to invite the Democratic Party, which has 25 seats, to join the alliance. However, the Democratic Party, which faced a Waterloo in the election and was on the brink of division, had differing opinions within the party. Political factions represented by Chuan Li and Abhisit hoped to serve as opposition parties in the new parliament to implement practical and effective supervision of the government and regain the trust of voters. Moreover, during the reign of Prime Minister Abhisit of the Democratic Party, 99 "red shirts" died during the government's dispersal rally, which is still a hatred in the hearts of the "red shirts". If the Thai party sends an invitation to the Democratic Party, it will inevitably cause dissatisfaction among supporters. Moreover, even if the Democratic Party's membership could lead to a ruling coalition exceeding half of the House of Representatives, senators would still not vote for the candidate for Thai Prime Minister, and the government would still face difficulties. Therefore, this road cannot be traversed.
Secondly, we earnestly request the Far Progressive Party to disregard past grievances and vote in favor of the candidate for Prime Minister of the Thai Party without joining the ruling coalition. Indeed, with the help of the Far Progressive Party, even if senators do not cast a single vote, the candidate for the Thai Party can theoretically still receive more than half of the total number of seats in both houses of the House and Senate, and thus be successfully elected. However, the ruling coalition led by the Thai Party failed to reach half of the seats in the House of Representatives, and the Proud Thai Party has clearly stated that it is neither willing to "bow in court" with the Far Progressive Party nor accepts the formation of a minority government, which clearly hinders smooth governance.
The third path is the path that the Thai party has been trying to avoid on the surface, which is to invite either the Civic Power Party of Bavaria or one of the former affiliated parties of the Thai National Party to join the alliance. This can not only exceed half of the seats in the House of Representatives to ensure government stability, but also use its influence to drive some senators to vote for Thai party candidates, thereby ensuring the successful formation of the Thai party's cabinet.
However, once the Thai party reneges on the promise made to voters during the election to "never cooperate with the Bayu and Bawi political parties", it will inevitably come at a huge cost, including the party's reputation and voter base. At a time when the Thai party was in a moral dilemma, the Civic Power Party in Zimbabwe took the initiative to show goodwill, stating that all 40 members of the party would support the candidate as the Thai party's prime minister, without any conditions attached, and could not be assigned any cabinet positions. Although Thai political observers believe that this statement goes against common sense and is not credible, in any case, 40 legislators actively supported it, bringing the support for the Thai party candidate to 278 votes, missing about 100 votes from the requirement of more than half of the total seats in both houses of the House of Representatives. It is believed that the vast majority of the 250 senators are under the command of the Bayoux faction, with only a minority being from the Bayoux faction. Therefore, even if the Civic Power Party actively joins, the candidate for the Thai Party may not be able to pass smoothly.
In the end, the Thai party had to extend an olive branch to the Hetai National Party and invite 36 members of the party to join the ruling coalition. In this way, the ruling coalition can hold 314 seats in the House of Representatives, ensuring the stability of the government. Moreover, under the promotion of the Hetai National Party, the senators can support the candidate for the Thai Party, and the work of forming a cabinet can be worry free.
Step by step for the Thai Party
On the surface, it seems that the formation of a "disintegrating political pole" coalition for the Thai party, including the Bayu and Bawi parties, is being forced step by step and has no other choice. However, in the eyes of the Far Progressive Party and some other political parties, the Thai party's current step is completely deliberate and step-by-step.
Sudara, who previously served as one of the candidates for Prime Minister of the Thai Party in the 2019 general election, left the party in 2022 due to political differences within the party and formed the Thai Kin Thai Party. Recently, Sudara stated in a media interview, "On May 22nd, when the 8-party alliance was formed, there was a strong intuition that the Thai party was not genuinely cooperating with the Far Progressive Party."
And several key members of the Far Progressive Party have publicly criticized the Thai Party on multiple occasions, believing that the Thai Party did not genuinely cooperate with the Far Progressive Party from the very beginning. At that time, joining the 8-party alliance for the Thai party was more of a gesture. They said that if the Thai party really wants to cooperate with the Far Progressive Party, then after replacing the Far Progressive Party as the leader of the alliance, they need to push for at least one joint election of the 8-party alliance as a candidate for the Thai party as prime minister. But the Thai party didn't even want to perform in this scene. It was just that senior members of the party, such as Beidong Dan, walked from the Thai party headquarters building to the Far Progressive Party headquarters building and apologized for withdrawing from the 8-party alliance, respectfully pleading with the Far Progressive Party to vote in support of their candidate.
In addition, other signs have already indicated that the Thai party is not willing to be tied to the Far Progressive Party. For example, the Far Progressive Party has been pushing for amendments to Article 272 of the Constitution to terminate the power of senators to elect prime ministers. Since 2019, the Thai party has also held this position. But since May 22nd, the Far Progressive Party has been actively striving to promote it, while the Thai Party has openly opposed it, which is puzzling. Moreover, many people have expressed that it has been three months since the general election, but the new government has not yet been established. It is better to wait until the end of the power of senators to elect the Prime Minister in May next year, and naturally form the Far Progressive Party and a liberal democratic government led by the Thai Party. However, the Thai party said, "The country must move forward, and the people cannot wait any longer." This statement is actually the slogan of the Bayu political party and the Thai founding party.
All these anomalies have made the Far Progressive Party suspect that the Thai Party has never truly opposed each other. On August 15th, the Far Progressive Party passed a resolution announcing that it would not vote in favor of the candidate for Prime Minister of the Thai Party. At the same time, the pro Thai party, along with former ruling coalition parties such as the Proud Thai Party, Civic Power Party, and the Hetai Founding Party, are vigorously engaged in a game over the allocation of cabinet seats. The Thai party originally hoped that all parties in the ruling coalition would first vote in support of their Prime Minister candidate's election, and then allocate seats. However, other parties are concerned that if the Thai party takes office as prime minister, its bargaining power will increase and its stance will be tough, making it difficult to ensure the interests of its own party. Even worse, there is concern that the Thai party may retaliate and bring the Far Progressive Party into the cabinet, making the situation difficult to clean up. Pride Thai Party, National Development Party of Thailand and other parties have clearly stated that they must wait for proper seat allocation before voting to elect the Prime Minister. The Thai party, with only 141 votes, had no choice but to hold consultations and negotiations with all parties as soon as possible. Based on the current situation, the allocation of cabinet seats among all parties has been basically in place.
Whether he can serve as prime minister is still uncertain
At present, the process of leading the Thai party to form a cabinet is relatively smooth. The final membership of the Civic Power Party and the Hetai Jianguo Party brought the total number of votes to 317. But it is not yet known how many senators will vote for the candidate for Thai Prime Minister, Sheh Tae. Judging from the statements of some more active senators, his election as Prime Minister is not guaranteed.
One of the leaders of the Senate, Somchai Savangan, publicly issued an "ultimatum" through his personal social media account on August 21, calling for the Thai party to "replace its candidate for prime minister, return to his home country for judicial proceedings, abandon the overthrow of the current constitution, and form a cross political faction government to defend the royal family.". Among them, the primary requirement is to request that the Thai party replace Sheta and nominate other candidates, namely Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter Betongdan or Thai party veteran Tsai Ka shing. During an interview with a television program, Song Cai stated that if he is still nominated on the 22nd, the likelihood of passing is less than half.
The main reasons why senators reject him so much include: firstly, during the election period, and even after the election, he clearly expressed his support for amending Article 112 of the Criminal Law, which is completely opposite to the senators' position; Secondly, the "King of Disclosure" Chuwei repeatedly exposed that he evaded taxes and evaded taxes, and senators believed that such moral character was not worthy; Thirdly, he publicly stated that he would appoint or promote the election of members of the Constitutional Committee after being elected, and amend the 2017 version of the Constitution, one of which is to suspend the power of senators to participate in the election of the Prime Minister. Of course, he himself has a solitary and aloof personality, and he doesn't have much interaction with senators. He once spoke ill of senators, which is also an important reason for their aversion and resistance.
If senators unanimously do not vote for him, then with only 317 votes from the ruling coalition, he will not be eligible for the position of Prime Minister. Because according to previous parliamentary practices, each candidate has only one chance to vote. On August 16th, the Constitutional Court did not accept an appeal from the National Investigation Commission seeking a ruling on Pita's second nomination, providing support for the parliament's approach. In this way, on August 22nd, he only had one chance as a candidate for prime minister.
If he ultimately loses the election, can the Thai party recommend Betongdan or Tsai Ka shing as prime minister candidates to continue running?
At present, it cannot be guaranteed either. Senior political observers have stated that senators will only give the Thai party one chance. If he cannot pass, it is highly likely that the Thai party will have to relinquish its leadership and form a cabinet, with the third ranked party, the Proud Thai Party, and even the fourth ranked Civic Power Party taking the lead. In that case, either Anu Ting or Bawei could become prime ministers. If that's the case, the possibility of Bawei is even greater.
Facing a dilemma for the Thai party
In fact, the Thai party is in a huge predicament, and its approach seems to be a desperate gamble. Taking a step forward, the Thai party may not ultimately become prime ministers and may be isolated by the former ruling coalition. Taking a step back, it is no longer possible to return to the 8-party alliance formed with the Far Progressive Party on May 22nd.
Moreover, the political operation of the Thai party has seriously damaged its political reputation. As the largest voter group of the Thai Party, the "Red Shirt Army", many members find it difficult to understand its actions and even openly tear up their red clothes on the streets, protest and express dissatisfaction. And there is also constant opposition within his party. It is rumored that Cha Dulong, a senior figure of the Thai Party, intended to join another party with more than 20 legislators, but was dissuaded by party leader Chun Lanan. Did the Thai party not anticipate the above consequences when planning to promote all of this? The answer is obviously negative. What exactly is the intention of the Thai party to do this?
In my opinion, the main reason is that Thaksin urgently hopes to return to his home country. Since his overthrow in 2006, Thaksin has only briefly returned to his home country and has been in exile ever since. Her sister former Prime Minister Yingluck fled Thailand in 2017 and reunited with Thaksin. The two of them bear multiple charges and will be imprisoned once they return to China. During the 2020 pandemic, Thaksin Shinawatra, who had been dormant for many years, appeared on the Clubhouse platform and participated in an online communication platform hosted by Care, the core group of the Thai party, to express his views on current affairs and continuously attract popularity for the Thai party. He hopes that in the 2023 general election, the Thai party can achieve an overwhelming victory and welcome him back to China with dignity and glory.
But the election results were far from what he had expected, not only did they not have an overwhelming victory, but they also failed to defend their title as they had hoped. This makes him even more anxious. After all, the decline of the Thai party has become apparent, and if this opportunity cannot be overturned, moving forward will be an endless abyss. So, the strategy formulated by Thaksin for the Thai party is: the bottom line is to ensure participation in politics for the Thai party and never become an opposition party again. If possible, try to strive for positions as Prime Minister and Minister of Important Departments. At present, the nomination of him as Prime Minister is in pursuit of this goal.
Under careful consideration of the situation, Thaksin realized that the Far Progressive Party is coming with a fierce and unstoppable momentum. If it were to form a coalition between the Thai Party and the Far Progressive Party, the original voter base would likely be gradually eroded by the Far Progressive Party. In the next election, the Thai Party may only become a medium-sized party with 70 seats, and in the next election, there will be only 30 seats left. Therefore, Thaksin hopes to use this election to form a cabinet and turn danger into an opportunity to achieve a strategic transformation, from the former leader of the liberal democratic camp to the leader of the conservative camp.
Therefore, this is also the deepest reason for the Thai party to make a desperate decision, which is to lead the new government, implement the party's economic recovery policy, and win public support. On the basis of the original staunch voter fans, we will strive to attract some voters from the center left factions such as the Civic Power Party, the Democratic Party, and the Pride Thai Party, and maintain the party's position as a major party. It is also unknown whether the future political landscape of Thailand will evolve into the Thai Party and the Far Progressive Party each becoming leaders of two major camps in confrontation with each other.
But it is highly likely that the conservative camp will use the power of senators to shatter Thaksin's strategic layout, ultimately achieving the lowest strategic goal for the Thai party, which is to participate in politics. In that case, in the next four years, the voice of the Thai party will become increasingly weak until it is completely engulfed. In that way, the main political contradiction in Thailand, which has lasted for nearly 25 years, will be easily dissolved, and the conservative camp will concentrate all efforts on dealing with the most terrifying political enemy - the Far Progressive Party.
The winner may be determined today.
