Türkiye wants to trade Russian S-400 with Americans? Will Russia still accept mediation? Türkiye | Russia | Confidential
According to Ukrainian media reports, Türkiye may share the information about the S-400 long-range air defense system imported from Russia with NATO countries recently. This has attracted widespread public attention.
Recently, Türkiye released the commander of the "Yasu Camp" and approved Sweden to join NATO, which seemed to weaken its intention to maintain a balanced position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Is it true that Türkiye will submit relevant information of S-400 to Northbound? What is Türkiye planning to repair its relations with the West?
Türkiye made in Russia S-400
Trading with Americans?
Data chart: Russian made S-400 air defense missile system
Since Türkiye had previously purchased the Russian made S-400 air defense missile system, in 2020, the United States imposed sanctions on Türkiye's defense industry and refused to provide Türkiye with F-35 fighters on the ground of "threatening the national defense security of the United States". Since then, the United States has repeatedly asked Türkiye to give up purchasing S-400, and Türkiye has refused.
With regard to the Ukrainian media's claim that Türkiye wants to share information about the S-400 air defense missile system with NATO, Liang Yongchun, a military observer, believes that the authenticity of this news has yet to be examined, but Türkiye may indeed trade the S-400 with the Americans.
Liang Yongchun:
Russia has begun to install the next generation S-500 anti-aircraft missile. Even if Türkiye leaks secrets, it will not cause serious damage to Russia's military security. But if this event really happens, it shows that Türkiye has formed a new judgment in geopolitics, and believes that Russia's strength has failed under the influence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
If Türkiye provides the United States with relevant information on S-400 air defense missiles, it will definitely ask the United States to resume supplying F-35 fighters to it. If Türkiye falls to the United States in this way, the political impact on Russia may be more serious than the military technical impact.
Does Türkiye change its position and begin to turn to the West?
Recently, Türkiye's military diplomatic posture is intriguing. Türkiye has released the commander of the "Yasu Battalion" in violation of the prisoner exchange agreement reached with Russia; Voted in favor of NATO's "European Defense Plan" to contain Russia; Agree to Sweden's accession to NATO; Support Ukraine to become a member of NATO.
Has Türkiye changed its balanced position in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and started to move closer to the West?
Liang Yongchun said that Türkiye would place bets on both the United States and Russia in order to maximize its own interests.
Liang Yongchun:
As a NATO country, Türkiye implements a pragmatic democratic policy and never really deviates from the United States in terms of basic policies.
Türkiye knows very well that for NATO, its greatest value is to defend the Black Sea against Russia. If Russia collapses, Türkiye's strategic value will decline significantly, so Türkiye will not completely abandon Russia from the United States.
Will Russia accept Türkiye's mediation?
Data image: Russian ships participating in exercises in the Black Sea near the Crimean Peninsula
Under the coordination of Türkiye, Russia and Ukraine have reached a Black Sea food agreement, which allows Ukraine to continue to export food through the Black Sea route. However, recently, Russia has repeatedly explicitly refused to extend this agreement.
Liang Yongchun analyzed that Türkiye is still a conflict mediator acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine and will play an important role in easing the situation.
Liang Yongchun:
In early July, Ukrainian President Zelensky visited Türkiye, and in August, Putin will also visit Türkiye. This is an important signal that Russia and Ukraine are willing to accept Türkiye's mediation, and the breakthrough of this round of mediation is likely to be the Black Sea Food Agreement.
Russia opposes the continuation of this agreement in order to cut off the sea transportation routes for Ukraine's food exports, damage the Ukrainian economy, and exert greater pressure on Ukraine. However, with the current combat effectiveness of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, it is unrealistic to blockade Ukrainian ports for a long time. Therefore, during his visit to Türkiye next month, Putin may give Türkiye this "face" and announce the lifting of the blockade.
If Türkiye can further promote the truce between Russia and Türkiye, it will greatly improve its international status, which is the geostrategic interest that Turkey really wants.
