Swipe the screen! Can't afford to live in Hanting like a home with a monthly salary of 20000 yuan? Airtickets and hotels in many places are skyrocketing! Is there an opportunity in the tourism sector? Demand | Sector | Hotel

Since the beginning of summer vacation, tourists from various scenic spots have been constantly scrolling online, while the continuous increase in airfare and hotel prices has also become a hot topic on the internet.

A Chinese journalist from a securities firm noticed that recently, some netizens pointed out that the prices of "Hanting Home Inn" in the core business district of some popular cities are as high as Shangri La. Some netizens who planned the National Day holiday in advance found that the airfare for overseas travel during the National Day period was very expensive, with round-trip airfare even as high as 8000 yuan.

A Chinese journalist from a securities firm noticed that under strong demand for tourism, companies in sectors such as hotel and catering, airport aviation, and tourist attractions have seen a strong recovery in performance since the beginning of this year. 25 A-share listed companies have seen their performance increase or turn losses in the first half of the year. Securities firms are also generally optimistic about opportunities in related sectors, believing that there will be impressive performance in the third quarter driven by travel demand during the Chengdu Universiade, Hangzhou Asian Games, and summer/graduation seasons.

The round-trip ticket for National Day to Japan costs 8000 yuan, and netizens exclaim "I'm a big loser"

Recently, the price of airline tickets has risen due to the strong demand, which has caused many netizens to roast, and even the tickets for the National Day holiday have also caused heated debate among netizens because of "expensive".

Taking Japanese tourism as an example, Chinese journalists from securities firms have noticed on social media that many netizens have recently posted that they plan to go to Japan for National Day, but the round-trip airfare prices can reach as high as seven to eight thousand yuan, and some dates may even exceed 10000 yuan.

In addition, there has been a trend of price increases for National Day flights to Japan recently. A netizen posted at the end of July, saying, "I bought an average of 7400 yuan a few days ago and felt like I was being wronged. Today, I saw an increase of 3000 yuan." Another netizen posted on August 3rd, saying, "The price for National Day is really outrageous. Last week, I saw the price at 8050 yuan and thought of squatting again, but ended up with 8475 yuan!"

This year's National Day holiday starts from September 29th and ends on October 6th. A Chinese journalist from a securities firm found on the Feizhu APP that the price of economy class tickets between Shanghai and Osaka, taking the departure on September 29th and the return on October 5th as an example, if no transfer is considered, the current lowest round-trip cost for Spring and Autumn Airlines is more than 8600 yuan with no baggage allowance. If it includes 20 kilograms of checked baggage, the price will exceed 9000 yuan.

The ticket prices for August and September are significantly lower. Taking the round-trip ticket prices from Shanghai to Osaka as an example, the cheapest economy class ticket is around 3000 yuan.

According to a report by Chao News, from the perspective of outbound destinations, Japan currently has the highest airfare prices, with direct flights from Hangzhou to Tokyo and Osaka round-trip airfare ranging from 8400 yuan to around 10000 yuan. Secondly, direct flights from Hangzhou to Singapore have a daytime flight price of over 9100 yuan, a red eye flight at night has a price close to 7000 yuan, and a direct flight from Hangzhou to Phuket has a price close to 6000 yuan. In contrast, the price for direct flights from Hangzhou to Hong Kong and Macau is around 3000 yuan.

According to Wang Jingtian, a transportation analyst at Bank of China Securities, many domestic and international airlines have recently opened, resumed or encrypted international routes. China Southern Airlines and Xiamen Airlines have successively announced their flight plans for August, adding 10 international routes. Hainan Airlines and Jilin Airlines have added direct flights to Milan, Italy. As the impact of the epidemic gradually subsides and international relations ease, domestic and foreign airlines will be released on the supply and demand sides in the future, and more airlines and airports are expected to achieve performance recovery in 2023.

According to Jiang Ming, an analyst in the transportation industry at Guoxin Securities, the continued popularity of summer travel once again highlights the resilience of travel demand. The civil aviation industry is expected to fully recover profitability in 2023, and the performance elasticity is expected to be released. They are firmly optimistic about the trend of performance reversal for civil aviation listed companies. In addition, the Politburo meeting proposed to promote the resumption of international flights, and with the continuous repair of international route passenger flow, the performance of hub airports will further rebound. The airport stock price has significantly adjusted since the beginning of the year, and the stage winning rate may have gradually increased.

Hotels in various regions have seen fierce price increases, with Hanting's home prices approaching those of Shangri La

On the other hand, recent news of hotel price hikes in major cities in China has also sparked heated discussions among netizens, with topics such as "I can't afford to stay at Hanting Rujia with a monthly salary of 20000", "Why have Beijing hotels recently seen fierce price increases", and "Hanting Rujia's room prices are approaching Shangri La" rising sharply.

According to a report by "City Boundary", taking the recently popular tourist destination Beijing as an example, on platforms such as Ctrip, the Home Inn in Xidan, Beijing, offers a 15 square meter room on weekends at a price of 687 yuan per night. 500 meters away, a mid range full season store with a room rate of 986 yuan per night. High end hotel representatives - Marriott and Westin - have a room rate of around 1400 yuan per night.

The same goes for other popular business district attractions in Beijing, such as home, Hanting, and overnight accommodation costs generally over 500 yuan. A weekday stay in Hanting on Changchun Street can even cost 1065 yuan, while a 7-day stay at Madianqiao Youpin can even cost 1479 yuan, and a night stay at Shangri La in Shougang Park can only cost 1347 yuan.

A consumer stayed at a Orange Crystal store in Beijing in February this year, spending a total of 734 yuan for two nights. In March, 756 yuan is only enough to stay at the same hotel for one night, with a growth rate of over 100%. On July 26th, the OTA platform showed that the hotel's asking price had reached 1099 yuan per night.

In terms of performance, many hotels have seen a recovery after three years of silence due to the pandemic. For example, the chain hotel giant Huazhu Group, which owns brands such as Hanting, Juzi, and Quanji, announced on July 25th its 2023 Q2 performance: RevPAR recovered to 121% of its 2019 level. Three months ago, the company's first quarter report showed that its RevPAR had recovered to 118% of its 2019 level. In terms of stock price, since July this year, as of the close of August 3rd, the stock price of Huazhu Group S, which is listed on the Hong Kong stock market, has risen by 16.86%.

Huafu Securities believes that in the short term, the focus from July to September will be on driving travel demand for the Chengdu Universiade, Hangzhou Asian Games, and summer/graduation seasons, as well as the sustained release of domestic and international travel demand year-on-year; In the medium to long term, with the continuous promotion of high-end hotel demand, top hotel enterprises are more likely to meet the constantly upgrading demand.

25 tourism related enterprises are expected to achieve good performance, and tourism related opportunities are receiving attention

According to data from Oriental Wealth Choice, a Chinese journalist from a securities firm found that in the first half of 2023, a total of 25 listed companies in the tourism, hotel and catering, airport and other related sectors of the A-share market achieved pre increase or turnaround in performance.

For example, Spring Airlines incurred a loss of 1.245 billion yuan in the first half of 2022, while it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 650 million yuan to 850 million yuan in the first half of this year. For example, Jinjiang Hotel suffered a loss of 118 million yuan in the first half of last year, while it achieved a profit of 500 million yuan to 550 million yuan in the first half of this year.

From the perspective of stock price performance, the tourism ETF has risen by 7.53% since July. Qujiang's cultural and tourism industry has seen a year-on-year increase of 29.16%, Changbai Mountain has seen a year-on-year increase of 24.59%, Xiamen Airport has seen a year-on-year increase of 22.30%, and Emei Mountain A has also seen a year-on-year increase of 14.15%.

According to a research report by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), since the beginning of the year, there has been a significant recovery in scenario consumption, with the recovery slope of the social service industry being greater than that of commodity consumption. However, there is a certain degree of differentiation in sub industries: hotels and high-quality tourist destinations during holidays are highlighted; Tax exemption is influenced by factors such as consumer power, and sales performance lags behind passenger flow performance; Catering is more for local consumption, continuing a stable recovery trend, and same store revenue is still lower than the same period in 2019. From the perspective of valuation level, after experiencing a pullback since the beginning of the year, the overall valuation level of the social services sector is currently at a low level since 2022. CICC believes that the valuation is already cost-effective.

Shen Xiaofeng, an analyst in the transportation industry at Huatai Securities, and others believe that the demand for civil aviation entered the peak summer season in July, and the performance of airline data improved. According to flight schedule data, domestic flights of Chinese airlines have recovered to 112.1% of the same period in 2019, with a 2.1% increase compared to June, catalyzing a leading increase in stock prices in the transportation sub sector. However, the recovery of international routes is still uncertain, which has a more significant impact on the profitability recovery of the airport sector, and the performance of stock prices is significantly weaker than that of airlines. Looking ahead to August, aviation demand is expected to further release and may continue to catalyze the aviation sector's market.