Stable Opening of Foreign Trade: Hard won Total Amount | Import and Export | Foreign Trade
In the first five months of this year, the global economic recovery was weak, and the pressure to stabilize foreign trade remained prominent. Faced with difficulties and challenges, China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience and achieved a stable start. The hard won goal of "opening the door steadily" has laid a solid foundation for achieving the goal of promoting stability and improving quality throughout the year.
Overall, China's foreign trade has remained stable and improved in the first five months. It presents characteristics such as achieving stable import and export, increasing the proportion of general trade, rapid growth in imports and exports to emerging markets, and further consolidating the position of private enterprises as the main force.
In the first five months, the total import and export volume of goods was 16.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.7%. The import and export of general trade reached 11.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.0%, accounting for 65.6% of the total import and export volume, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The import and export to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, amounted to 2.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.9%, accounting for 15.4% of the total import and export volume. The imports and exports to Latin America and Africa increased by 10.7% and 16.4%, respectively. The import and export of private enterprises reached 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.1%, accounting for 52.8% of the total import and export volume, an increase of 3.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year.
From different regions, industries, and categories, the import and export of the central and western regions are all better than the overall situation. In the first five months, the import and export of the central and western regions reached 3.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.9%, 2.2 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate, accounting for 18.2% of the total import and export volume in China, and contributing 27.0% to the overall import and export growth. The export of electromechanical products and labor-intensive products has maintained growth. In the first five months, the export of mechanical and electrical products reached 5.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.5%, accounting for 57.9% of the total export volume. The total exports of seven categories of labor-intensive products amounted to 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.4%, accounting for 17.2% of the total exports. Some bulk commodity imports have grown rapidly.
Despite achieving hard-earned growth, we must also recognize that the external environment for foreign trade development is becoming more complex and severe. Currently, the world economy lacks the driving force for recovery, global inflation remains at a high level, financial market fragility is increasing, economic globalization is facing a reverse flow, local conflicts and turbulence are constantly occurring, and the external environment for China's foreign trade development is unstable, uncertain, and unpredictable.
On the one hand, the global economic recovery is weak. The International Monetary Fund released its World Economic Outlook report in April, which predicts that the global economy will grow by 2.8% in 2023, lower than the 3.4% growth rate in 2022. The growth rate for the next five years will remain around 3%, lower than the average level of 3.8% in the past 20 years. The World Trade Organization released its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report in April, which predicts that global trade in goods will grow by 1.7% in 2023, lower than the growth rate of 2.7% in 2022 and the average level of 2.6% in the past 12 years.
On the other hand, global inflation remains high. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the overall global inflation rate will fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% in 2023, and a decrease in core inflation levels will take longer. The price increases in most countries will remain above the central bank's target level until 2025.
In addition, the fragility of international financial markets has increased. In the environment of low interest rates, limited volatility, and sufficient liquidity for many years, the financial fragility in some areas has increased. The significant interest rate hikes by central banks in many countries have intensified the pressure on the financial sector, hindering economic recovery.
Overall, the Chinese economy has strong resilience, great potential, and abundant vitality. The long-term positive fundamentals have not changed, high-level opening-up continues to advance, foreign trade innovation momentum continues to strengthen, stable foreign trade policies are effective, and the achievement of the goal of promoting stability and improving quality in foreign trade throughout the year provides important support. The Chinese economy continues to recover and improve, with a stronger foundation for development, better quality, and more abundant momentum becoming more apparent. At present, 20 free trade agreements have been signed with 27 countries, accounting for about 35% of the trade volume with free trade partners, and the development space of foreign trade is constantly expanding. Cross border e-commerce maintains a rapid development momentum, growing nearly tenfold in the past five years. In April of this year, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting Stable Scale and Optimal Structure of Foreign Trade", proposing 18 policy measures from five aspects, and the combination of stable foreign trade policies continues to show its effectiveness. It can be foreseen that through the joint efforts of all parties, we are confident in achieving the goal of promoting stability and improving quality in foreign trade throughout the year.
