Southeast Asian countries have encountered a cold wave, with the number of countries and regions eligible for group outbound travel increasing to 138 destinations | Thailand | Southeast Asia
"The recovery of overseas travel is still a long way off. Although the number of countries that can travel in groups has reached 138, the overall market still needs to be observed due to factors such as visas and international flights!"
Last Thursday, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced the list of the third batch of countries and regions to resume outbound team tourism. In a lively circle of friends, reporters found a rather "rational" voice.
Will the outbound tourism market experience explosive growth in passenger traffic as more popular tourist destination countries such as Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea open up group tours in previous years? Will Southeast Asian countries, which were once popular in the first half of this year, face passenger flow pressure?
Southeast Asian countries have lower than expected passenger flow
"The popular night market in Bangkok, JODD FAIRS DanNeramit, is in line with the old internet famous night market 'Rajada Train Night Market'. 1200 shops are open from 4pm until midnight. It is said that tourist buses cannot be parked at present, and tourist teams have not been met. Most of the people who go to the night market are locals, which is a bit regrettable." Over the weekend, Mr. Jin, a Wenzhou tourist in Bangkok, Thailand, sighed on his social media.
According to data released by the Thai Ministry of Tourism and Sports on August 4th, in the first seven months of this year, China became Thailand's second largest source of tourists with 1.83 million visitors, following Malaysia. In the same period of 2019, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Thailand was 9.052 million, which is now only 20% of the pre pandemic level. In February of this year, Thailand became one of the first countries to open up team tours, and many travel agencies and OTA platforms have made it the first stop for promoting outbound travel. At that time, Thailand had optimistically estimated that 5 to 7 million Chinese tourists would visit this year.
Why is the number of Chinese tourists far below expectations? The reporter consulted multiple travel agencies and all stated that besides the fact that the number of flights on the China Thailand route has not yet recovered to the level of 2019, the difficulty of obtaining Thai visas has also increased. The reporter learned from two travel agencies in Zhejiang region that can handle Thailand's single tourist visa application. Starting from May 8th, Thailand will increase the application requirements for visa applications, requiring applicants to provide an additional 6-month bank statement and a deposit certificate with a daily balance of no less than 20000 or 20000 yuan.
In addition, people have become more sensitive to prices.
According to data from Air Travel Horizon, in the first week of August, the number of flights between domestic airlines and Thailand only recovered to about 52% of the same period in 2019, and the passenger volume only recovered to about 48% of the same period in 2019. The average paid price for round-trip tickets to Thailand is about 1912 yuan, while before the epidemic, ticket prices were often around four to five hundred yuan. In early March of this year, when tour guide Zhang Jie returned to Phuket after three years, she felt that the money in her pocket had become unaffordable. "Riding an elephant in Elephant Garden now costs 500 baht, compared to ticket prices of 150-250 baht before the pandemic. Ordering three skewers of seafood and chicken grilled skewers on the roadside costs 330 baht, which can be used to order five or six skewers of similar food before the pandemic." She told reporters that the 10000 baht I used to bring with me when I returned to Thailand was still surplus, but now there is very little left, and the money has become unaffordable.
Many travel agencies believe that the frequent safety issues such as "waistline" and bus rollovers in recent months have also raised concerns about Southeast Asian countries. "The two recently released movies," The Disappearing She "and" All in One ", are known as the" nuclear explosion ". The Thai tourism that was once popular in" Lost in Thailand "has now been" extinguished "by" The Disappearing She ". This is a popular saying in the industry.".
Not only Thailand, but also several Southeast Asian countries have experienced lower than expected tourism recovery. According to media reports, before the outbreak, Bali, Indonesia could receive over 1.4 million Chinese tourists annually, but this number was only 170000 in the first half of this year. The number of Chinese tourists visiting Vietnam in the first half of this year was about 557000, which is only 25% of the same period in 2019.
The product is difficult to produce, and countries frequently resort to tactics
Due to various factors such as visa processing and flight supply, the outbound tourism market did not experience the industry's expected explosion this summer.
According to data from the National Immigration Administration, a total of 168 million inbound and outbound personnel were inspected in the first half of this year, only recovering to 48.8% of the same period in 2019.
The reporter noticed that leading companies in outbound tourism, Zhongxin Tourism and Caesar Travel, successively released mid-term performance forecasts in mid to late July, and some data can also indirectly reflect that outbound tourism is not easy to do. Among them, Zhongxin Tourism is expected to achieve a net loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 31 million to 36 million yuan in the first half of the year; Caesar Hotel's losses are even greater, with an estimated net loss attributable to the parent company of approximately 70 million to 100 million yuan during the period.
However, with the announcement of the third batch of destination countries for group tours, various countries have already taken measures. At the end of July, Myanmar and Jilin jointly signed a memorandum of cooperation to establish a "mutual tourism destination" city relationship; On August 4th, the Cambodian Ministry of Tourism launched an online tourism service quality certification system for Chinese tourists. Recently, tourism promotion has been carried out in multiple first tier cities in China by the Fiji Tourism Board, the Italian Tourism Board, the Dutch Tourism Board, the Swiss Tourism Board, the New Zealand Tourism Board, and the German Tourism Board, all of which have received good reviews.
The recovery of the outbound tourism market still takes time
It is worth noting that according to data from tourism platforms, Japan ranks first in search rankings with 350% instantaneous visit popularity.
"After the third batch of opening up, there are more options for outbound travel, especially in the previously popular regions of Japan and South Korea, where the number of reserved visas has increased by 10% compared to the beginning of the month." Zhou Ni, a staff member of Zhejiang New World International Tourism Co., Ltd., told reporters that they launched more than 20 relatively mature and popular mid to long term products in the first time, and suggested that customers adjust their travel time to the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day period. However, the reporter found that the price of air tickets to Japan had increased significantly before and after October, among which the one-way ticket from Hangzhou to Osaka on the Mid-Autumn Festival had risen to more than 3300 yuan, which also led some travel agencies to mark "excluding air tickets" when publishing product prices.
"Even if we apply for a visa now, we won't be able to make it to the end of August for travel, so we suggest that tourists leave more ample preparation time. However, due to the limited number of flights, tickets to Japan are generally more expensive now, and even special round-trip tickets from Ningbo to Tokyo cost over 4000 yuan, which will make many customers hesitant," said Zhou Ni.
According to the latest "Foreigner Consumption Trends" data released by the National Tourism Administration of Japan, the travel expenses of foreign visitors to Japan reached 1.21 trillion yen in the second quarter of this year, which has recovered to 95.1% of 2019. Japan has become one of the most popular tourist destinations for foreign tourists this year. So, when will there be a drop in travel group fees?
"With the continuous expansion of the list of countries for resuming outbound group tours, the number of flights launched by major airlines will gradually increase. I believe that the cost of outbound tourism has not significantly decreased this year, especially since Japan entered the red leaf season after October. Not only is it the peak season for inbound tourism in Japan, but its domestic tourism demand is also strong. It can be foreseen that the prices of airfare and hotels will still be relatively high." Xu Hui, associate professor and senior economist at Zhejiang Provincial Institute of Culture and Tourism Development and Zhejiang Tourism Vocational College, believes that with the increase of open countries, the outbound tourism business will gradually improve. He will also urge countries, especially Southeast Asian countries, to create a safe and orderly tourism environment, and explore more cultural and in-depth tourism products. However, overall recovery still requires a long time.
