Shot down? Internal explosion? Mechanical malfunction? The cause of Prigoren's plane crash has sparked various speculations

This is a photo of the plane crash scene in Tver Oblast released by the Russian Federation Investigation Commission on August 23. Xinhua News Agency image

Shot down? Mechanical malfunction? Internal explosion? The private plane crash of Prigoren has sparked widespread speculation from the outside world.

On August 23rd local time, a private plane crashed in the Tver Oblast north of the Russian capital Moscow, causing 10 deaths, including 3 crew members and 7 passengers. TASS quoted the Russian Aviation Administration as reporting that Wagner Group founder Prigoren and commander Utkin, as well as several senior Wagner executives, were on the passenger list of the crashed plane.

Prigoren's two private planes

According to flight tracking data from Flight Radar24 and information released by the Federal Air Transport Agency of the Russian Federation, at 17:54 Moscow time on the 23rd, a private plane belonging to Prigoren traveled from Moscow to St. Petersburg. Prigoren frequently used two private planes, namely the "Legsey" 600 and "Legsey" 650 jet planes produced by the Brazilian Aviation Industry Corporation. The plane that crashed was the "Legsey" 600 aircraft.

The flight dynamics of another private plane belonging to Prigoren have made the situation even more complicated. According to The Washington Post, 35 minutes after the crash, a second plane related to Prigoren took off from St. Petersburg and finally landed in Moscow. People speculate that Prigoren may have used a "cover up" tactic and did not board the first crashed plane.

According to relevant information, the "Legsey" 600 and "Legsey" 650 are business aircraft developed on the basis of the ERJ135 aircraft. This model has a standard layout of 37 seats, is equipped with two Rolls Royce AE3007 A engines, a maximum flight speed of 0.75 Mach, and a range of 5650-6390 kilometers.

According to Reuters, nearly 300 Legsey 600 aircraft were produced in total. Prior to the crash, this aircraft had an excellent safety operation record, with only one recorded accident occurring in 2006. At that time, due to operational errors by the crew, a Legacy 600 aircraft collided with a Boeing 737-800 aircraft in mid air, and unfortunately, the Boeing passenger plane crashed. The Legacy 600 aircraft successfully made an emergency landing.

Shot down by anti-aircraft missiles?

After the private plane crash of Prigoren, some views suggest that the plane was shot down by Russian anti-aircraft missiles.

The Financial Times reported that a "Western official" who declined to be named told the newspaper that they were "informed" that Prigoren's jet was shot down by Russian air defense forces, but did not provide more conclusive information.

According to an article on the US military website "Warzone", there have been speculations that Russian air defense forces shot down the aircraft, and multiple loud noises can be heard in videos taken from the ground. However, there is currently no conclusive evidence that Russian officials have taken any direct action.

According to the video taken by people near the crash released by Russia Today, a large amount of smoke appeared near a plane flying in the sky, and then the plane spun down with flames, causing some aircraft components to disintegrate in the air.

Miles O'Brien, a senior science and aviation journalist interviewed by CNN, said, "Planes like this... would not have fallen catastrophically from the air if something very unusual had not happened." Miles O'Brien believes that this could have been caused by explosions inside or outside the aircraft, such as explosions of explosives on board or missile strikes.

CNN reported that the latest analyzed flight tracking data shows that a private plane carrying Wagner Group founder Prigoren reportedly experienced a "dramatic decline".

FlightRadar24 stated that the aircraft stopped transmitting location data at 6:11 pm local time on the 23rd, possibly due to "interference in the region," but continued to transmit other data for the next 9 minutes.

FlightRadar24 stated that its data showed that the aircraft stabilized at an altitude of 28000 feet and underwent some slight altitude changes. The last minute available data shows that the aircraft's climb and descent are unstable, reaching over 30000 feet at one point. However, data from 6:19 pm local time showed that the aircraft's descent speed was close to 8000 feet per minute before the altitude data transmission stopped.

According to relevant information, the main causes of accidents involving civil aviation aircraft include technical factors, human factors, natural factors, missile strikes, and terrorist attacks. The main technical reasons include mechanical failures, improper design, and improper maintenance; Human factors mainly include improper pilot control, accidents that cause aircraft collisions or collisions with ground objects. In addition, intentional pilot collisions can also be classified as human factors; Natural factors mainly include adverse weather, electromagnetic interference, etc.

There have been multiple cases in history where anti-aircraft missiles have shot down civilian aircraft. On January 8, 2020, Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752, originally scheduled to fly to Kiev, was shot down and crashed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard due to human error shortly after takeoff from Tehran Khomeini International Airport in Iran. All 167 passengers and 9 crew members on board were killed. In April 2023, the Iranian judiciary announced that 10 unnamed individuals were sentenced to imprisonment ranging from 1 to 13 years.

On July 17, 2014, as the battle between pro Russian armed militants and Ukrainian government forces intensified, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was hit by an anti-aircraft missile on its way from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, resulting in the death of all 298 passengers and crew members.

"When the Prigoren plane crashed, its flight altitude was between 8000 and 9000 meters. Many Russian anti-aircraft missiles were theoretically capable of intercepting aircraft at this altitude, and private planes were rarely equipped with missile approach warning systems and jamming equipment. If the decision was made to shoot down the plane, the plane would not be able to escape the fate of being hit," military expert Han Dong told Pengpai News. "As for whether it was really shot down by the missile, detailed investigation is needed. There will be many traces left on the aircraft shot down by the anti-aircraft missile, such as the fragmented warhead commonly used by anti-aircraft missiles, which will make many small holes in the plane."

"If the plane is detonated in the air by a bomb installed inside, causing a crash, there will also be many explosion marks left on the wreckage, which can be discovered through later investigations," Han Dong added.

Mechanical failure causing a plane crash?

There are also speculations that the plane crashed due to lack of maintenance due to sanctions.

On the 23rd local time, Embraer, the manufacturer of the Legacy 600, stated that the company had learned of a Legacy 600 aircraft crash in Russia, but there was no additional information available for release. Embraer also stated that it has been complying with international sanctions against Russia and has not provided after-sales maintenance for this aircraft since 2019.

The Brazilian Aviation Accident Research and Prevention Center has issued a statement stating that according to international rules for air crash investigations, Russia will lead the investigation, but as the crashed aircraft is manufactured in Brazil, Brazil can participate in the investigation.

The Federal Air Transport Agency of the Russian Federation stated that the plane involved in the crash had obtained an airspace usage permit in accordance with regulations before taking off.

A person familiar with aviation maintenance told Pengpai News that although Brazil complies with international sanctions against Russia, the "Legsey" 600 is a civilian aircraft with a relatively large production quantity and operates in multiple countries around the world. Wagner can still obtain relevant parts for maintenance through some special channels, unless maintenance personnel are careless or tamper with it, the possibility of malfunctions in the air is relatively high.

On the evening of August 23rd local time, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency announced that it had established a special committee to investigate the plane crash that occurred in Tver Oblast that day.

According to preliminary information, the crashed plane took off from the Sheremetevo Airport in the Russian capital Moscow and was scheduled to travel to St. Petersburg. There were 7 passengers and 3 crew members on board.

The specialized committee is carrying out preliminary actions at the accident site and is beginning to collect factual materials on crew training, aircraft technical conditions, flight route meteorological conditions, dispatch service work, and ground radio equipment. During this investigation phase, experts will also search for objective control devices on board for decoding and analysis of the "black box" in the future.