"Risk Reduction": New Bottled Old Wine in the United States | China | Risks
Mingdysprosium
Since von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, first proposed "de risking" China in March this year, the United States has quickly followed up, making this word quickly become a new rhetoric to replace the "decoupling" of the United States from China. The United States is hyping up "de risk-taking" in an attempt to achieve the goal of both enjoying the benefits of economic and trade with China and continuing its own economic hegemony. Attempting to use a seemingly "lowering tone" attitude and changing rhetoric to relax the international community's vigilance, in order to achieve its "precise" calculation of interests. However, no matter how one changes the guise or wording, it cannot change the strategic plan of the United States to suppress China through decoupling and breaking the chain, which will inevitably bring huge risks to the prosperity and development of the world today.
The US continues to deepen its decoupling from China
Since the Trump era, the United States has completed a paradigm shift in its strategy towards China, shifting from competition to cooperation and embarking on an irreversible path of containment, with decoupling being an important part. After Biden took office, he not only took over Trump's decoupling trend completely, but even surpassed it without fail.
Specifically, one is to maintain the imposition of tariffs on China. After Biden took office, despite strong opposition from the domestic business community, he still stubbornly refused to lift punitive tariffs on China. Although there are moderate advocates within the White House, represented by Treasury Secretary Yellen, advocating for the abolition of tariffs, their voices are constrained by hardliners such as Trade Representative Daisy. Biden is facing the pressure of the 2024 election, and any move to relax tariffs will trigger Republican criticism of his "weakness" - this narrow partisan and personal political self-interest consideration has caused the actual negative result of the spiral decline in economic ties between China and the United States. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, the year-on-year trade volume between China and the United States decreased by 15.1% from January to May this year.
The second is to upgrade the decoupling and disconnection of China. On the one hand, the Biden administration continues to block exports of core high-tech products to China, and on the other hand, it enhances local self-sufficiency in production. While minimizing dependence on China, it also hinders China's development of innovation capabilities and industrial upgrading. The Biden administration is attempting to ensure that the United States is at least two generations ahead in the semiconductor industry through the Chip and Science Act, and is implementing new export control regulations to include more and more leading Chinese semiconductor and artificial intelligence companies in the physical list, cutting off their channels for importing core components and obtaining production equipment; Strengthen investment review in the United States, prepare to introduce restrictions on US outbound investment, and artificially cut off financial and investment ties between China and the United States; Further restrict the import of products from Xinjiang, China, under the pretext of "forced labor". Recently, US lawmakers have also advocated for restrictions on the development of new energy vehicles in China. Internationally, the United States relies on multilateral platforms such as the US Europe Trade and Technology Commission, the US UK Australia Tripartite Security Partnership, the US Japan India Australia Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Mechanism, and the Indo Pacific Economic Framework to shape a "de Sinicization" global supply chain, and uses bilateral relations with the US Europe, US Japan, and US South Korea as a threat to force allies to synchronize their decoupling and disconnection from China.
The third is to establish exclusive economic and trade rules for China. Proud morality and seizing the right to speak have always been a common tactic used by the United States in suppressing other countries. Biden has regained the old trick of "value diplomacy" and attempted to build a complete set of "democratic" narratives in the fields of international economic, trade, and technological cooperation, using low-cost methods to soft contain China and achieve its economic hegemony. For this reason, the United States has introduced concepts such as "fair trade" and "democratic human rights", which not only provide a "moral" cover for isolating China, but also raise the banner for the "anti China economic circle" built with friends and companions. From advocating "technology for democratic work" to wooing allies to form the "chip quadrilateral alliance", the United States has been racking its brains and using every means possible.
"Risk reduction" is actually "precise decoupling"
Although the United States has frequently and continuously deepened its decoupling from China, there are actually many concerns from various sectors in the United States about this. It is said that there is a private consensus within the Biden administration that a widespread "complete decoupling" from China is not feasible, as once global division of labor is interrupted, the United States may fall into a recession more severe than the Great Depression of the 1930s. The United States has made limited progress in forcibly promoting the return of manufacturing, but the backlash of decoupling and chain breaking is becoming increasingly prominent. American consumers not only suffer from inflation, but also the proportion of manufacturing products in exports to China continues to decline, indirectly affecting the growth potential and expectations of other technology companies, and overall damaging the innovation ability of the United States itself. For this reason, American companies continue to warn the Biden administration that decoupling will be catastrophic. Tesla CEO Musk stated that the interests of the United States and China are deeply intertwined, making it "like a conjoined baby that is difficult to separate.". The President of Morgan Stanley stated that he is willing to serve as a bridge connecting Chinese and foreign companies.
The United States also faces opposition from allies such as Europe when engaging in decoupling. Unlike the serious hostility of the United States towards China, most Europeans hope to maintain neutrality between China and the United States, and do not consider China a "destructive force". They do not accept Biden's claim of "using democracy to counter authoritarianism". Since the Sino US trade war, China's share in US imports from East Asia has decreased from 54% to 43%, while at the same time, China's share in European imports from East Asia has increased from 56% to 62%, and bilateral investment between China and Europe has also increased.
US National Security Advisor Sullivan argues that the US does not seek to "decouple" from the Chinese economy, but rather seeks to "de risk.". "Decoupling" refers to the comprehensive exclusion of China from the global supply chain, while "de risk-taking" refers to the exclusion of "aspects that affect US national security" while continuing to develop relations with China. This explanation can be said to be the ultimate application of playing with rhetoric and vague language. In fact, the United States has not publicly claimed the concept of "complete decoupling" because it is well aware that doing so in the era of globalization is not only impossible, but also impossible. The essence of the United States' plan is to achieve the goal of suppressing China through "precise decoupling", that is, to cut off China's channels for mastering technological innovation, hinder China's industrial upgrading, force China's industrial structure to be locked in the middle and low end, and let China serve as a supplier of cheap consumer goods and a buyer of export products for the United States.
The trick of confusing beauty is bound to fail
No matter how the United States packages its rhetoric, as long as it does not change its hostility and prejudice towards China, and does not reverse its strategic plan to contain China, it is impossible to change its wrong direction of "de sinicization" under the name of "de risk". Regarding this, the Chinese side strongly refutes it with righteous words. During a discussion with representatives from the German business community in Berlin, Chinese Premier Li Qiang pointed out that risk prevention and cooperation are not opposed. Non cooperation is the biggest risk, and non development is the biggest insecurity. The spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stated that China is firmly promoting high-level opening up to the outside world, adhering to mutual respect and mutual benefit, firmly upholding international fairness and justice, and insisting on resolving differences through dialogue and consultation. Such a China is not a risk but an opportunity.
Indeed, the real risk facing the world is to engage in camp confrontation, recklessly interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, and create regional turmoil and chaos; It is politicizing economic and technological issues, disrupting the stability of the global supply chain; It is a transfer of economic and financial risks to the outside world, and a cyclical harvest of world wealth. These are the risks that the international community should be vigilant of and jointly defend against. Several Western media outlets and many Western politicians have also raised questions about "de risk-taking". The Financial Times pointed out that "de risk-taking" trade with China itself is a risky thing. The President of the International Monetary Fund, Georgieva, stated that China will continue to be the main source of world economic growth in the coming years. If the West views cooperation with China as a "risk" rather than an opportunity, it will only hinder the recovery of the world economy, exacerbate the instability and uncertainty of the world. Even many American scholars lament that "de risk-taking" will only allow China to develop its technological autonomy more quickly, ultimately leading to a "counterproductive" outcome for the United States.
Today, China is a major trading partner of over 140 countries and regions, the world's largest destination for foreign direct investment, the largest manufacturing country, and the world's largest exporter of electric vehicles. It plays a crucial role in strategic emerging fields such as green technology, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, rare earths, and solar energy, and is also the world's largest market for high-tech products. If the United States wants to engage in "de sinicization," it will ultimately only be counterproductive and self absorbed.
