Qingdao's new policies comprehensively cover new and second-hand houses, and optimize the real estate market in cities such as Qingdao and Suzhou. Policy | New Houses

Release time:Apr 13, 2024 20:50 PM

In the short term, real estate policies in various regions may continue to be optimized, and there are still expectations of policy relaxation in first - and second tier cities.

Overall, the expectation of subsequent policy easing will strengthen, with new policies expected to be introduced in June, and some policy tools may exceed the scope of conventional tools in the past

Securities Daily reporters have found that since June, many regions have introduced real estate optimization policies, mainly focusing on reducing down payment ratios, optimizing housing provident fund, and optimizing purchase restrictions. The policy content is broader and stronger than in previous years.

Yan Yuejin, Research Director of E-House Research Institute, told Securities Daily that the current period is crucial for real estate companies to focus on sales, especially with poor sales data from April to May. Therefore, more support should be given to the home purchase policy in June. Overall, the expectation of subsequent policy easing will strengthen, with new policies expected to be introduced in June, and some policy tools may exceed the scope of conventional tools in the past.

Adjusting home purchase policies in Qingdao and other places

On June 1st, the Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau of Qingdao City, the Qingdao Central Branch of the People's Bank of China, and the Qingdao Regulatory Bureau of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice on promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, emphasizing the reduction of the down payment ratio for non restricted purchase areas, with the minimum down payment ratio for the first home adjusted to 20% and the minimum down payment ratio for the second home adjusted to 30%; The down payment ratio in restricted purchase areas remains unchanged, with a minimum of 30% for the first set and 40% for the second set. At the same time, optimize the sales restriction conditions to support essential needs and improve demand.

Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told Securities Daily that the new policies in Qingdao's real estate market fully cover the new and second-hand housing markets. From implementing differentiated credit policies, adjusting sales restrictions, reducing down payment ratios, promoting "mortgage transfer", promoting shantytown renovation housing vouchers, to purchasing existing housing as guaranteed rental housing, we will comprehensively increase support for the real estate industry from the demand side. This indicates that local governments, under the principles of "housing for living, not for speculation" and "implementing policies based on the city", are flexibly adjusting housing related policies within their own jurisdiction according to the operating situation of the local real estate market, with the main goal of promoting the real estate industry to achieve a soft landing as soon as possible.

Yan Yuejin stated that the recent policy adjustment in Qingdao indicates a slight increase in market pressure, and it is expected that by the end of the second quarter, there will be further easing of policies for home purchases in various regions, as well as measures in multiple dimensions.

In addition to relaxing sales restrictions and reducing down payments, optimizing housing provident fund is a key focus of the real estate market policies in various regions. For example, on June 1st, the Suzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center announced that the housing provident fund balance can be withdrawn as a down payment, without affecting the subsequent provident fund loan amount. It is understood that this policy applies to the Suzhou metropolitan area, including Gusu District, High tech Zone, Xiangcheng District, Wuzhong District, Wujiang District, Kunshan City, Changshu City, Zhangjiagang City, and Taicang City.

Yan Yuejin believes that the policy of Suzhou's withdrawal of provident fund for down payment is very strong, and this is not a simple policy adjustment at the provident fund level, or is related to the overall direction of stable real estate transactions in Suzhou. This time, Suzhou has made it clear that it will not affect the loan amount, making this type of provident fund loan policy more applicable. The Suzhou housing provident fund policy has a guiding significance, indicating that there is a very good consensus in various regions on revitalizing the housing provident fund and promoting active housing transactions. It will also become a policy content actively promoted by various regions in June.

Expected or strengthened policy easing in the future

According to incomplete statistics from the China Index Research Institute, since 2023, more than 100 cities have introduced nearly 300 real estate regulation policies. From January to April, the frequency of real estate policy optimization remained stable at around 60 times, a decrease from last year's peak period. In May, the frequency of policy introduction slowed down, with a significant decrease in the frequency of policy introduction in third - and fourth tier cities. Core cities such as Hangzhou and Suzhou have increased their regulatory efforts, further stabilizing market expectations.

Wang Qing stated that since the second quarter, especially in May, there have been signs of a cooling off in the real estate market once again. This is the direct reason why many regions have further intensified their "loosening" policies in recent times. Overall, the current macroeconomic recovery momentum is slightly lower than market expectations, and the lack of sustained recovery in the real estate industry is an important reason.

"In June, various regions may further increase policy support for the real estate industry, and the pace of implementing 'mortgage transfer' may accelerate. In addition, with a focus on supporting the demand for improved housing, we will guide residents' mortgage interest rates to decline comprehensively. It is also possible to introduce a flexible adjustment mechanism for the second home loan interest rate policy in the later period. In the second half of the year, with the prospect of MLF interest rates remaining stable, as the pricing benchmark for mortgage interest rates, LPR quotes for loans over 5 years may be separately lowered." Wang Qing further stated.

Chen Wenjing, Director of Market Research at Zhongzhi Research Institute, told reporters that since June, many cities such as Qingdao and Suzhou have introduced policies to optimize measures such as loan restrictions, housing provident fund restrictions, and sales restrictions, sending positive signals to the market. The national real estate market regulation policies continue to maintain an optimized trend. In the short term, real estate policies in various regions may continue to be optimized, while policies in first - and second tier cities still have expectations of relaxation. There is also significant room for optimization in loan and purchase restriction policies. According to the principle of "one district, one policy", further optimization of purchase restriction conditions, cancellation of housing and loan policies, etc., will be carried out. At the same time, in conjunction with the birth policy, support will be provided to families with multiple children in terms of purchase restrictions, down payment ratios, and mortgage interest rates.

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