Political Bureau Meeting Setting: Major Changes in China's Real Estate Market Housing | Affordability | Changes
At the Political Bureau meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held on the 24th, when discussing the real estate market, it was explicitly proposed for the first time to adapt to the new situation of significant changes in the supply and demand relationship of the Chinese real estate market and adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner.
Ten days ago, central bank officials mentioned that "the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone profound changes". This meeting set the tone of the property market, this judgment to be clear. The Politburo meeting held in late July each year has always been regarded as a key meeting to determine the direction of macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year. Industry experts believe that this meeting made a study and judgment on the new situation of China's real estate market, releasing three major signals.
The Old Age of Real Estate Ends
What is a major change in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market? Its outstanding performance is that in the past two years, the real estate market transaction activity has declined, and the prices of new and second-hand houses in many places are in a downward channel, especially since April this year, the real estate market has shown signs of marginal weakening. Behind these phenomena reflects a series of medium and long-term factors.
The first is the change in the stage of real estate development. Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, pointed out that in 2022, China's total population declined for the first time, the urbanization process slowed down, and the per capita housing area increased significantly. The average household was close to 1.1 houses. The basic housing needs of residents have been met, and the new housing market has entered a peak. After the fall stage.
Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, observed many phenomena that have not occurred in the past, such as: the decline in the enthusiasm of residents to buy houses with mortgages, the reversal of housing price expectations, the decline in residents' willingness to hold real estate, the slowdown in housing circulation, and the decline in bank mortgage loan balances. There are signs that the era of capital flows to real estate is over, and the era of large-scale reserves of land by developers is also over.
While the real estate market and industry have undergone major changes, relevant management policies will also undergo fundamental changes. Li Yujia believes that the future policy focus needs to gradually shift from incremental to stock, from "there is no" to "good or bad", the policy direction should also gradually shift from demand-side stimulus to supply-side reform.
Property market policy "toolbox" open
This meeting proposed to adjust and optimize the real estate policy in due course. This may mean that by the middle of the year, China's property market policy "toolbox" will be opened again and even bigger.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that the central bank has previously revealed that there is room for marginal optimization of policies that have been introduced in the long-term overheating stage of the market in the past, and these marginal optimization initiatives will soon land.
Guan Rongxue, a senior analyst at the Zhuge Data Research Center, believes that timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policies is an urgent need under the current "slow recovery" market situation, and it also releases a positive signal that the real estate policy side still has a large room for regulation and control. The adjustment of real estate policies will increase, and the tools will also become diversified.
Chen Wenjing believes that the optimization of real estate policy in the second half of the year will still be promoted in the way of city-specific policies, and the overall intensity is expected to increase. In the past year or so in ordinary second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities, restrictive real estate policies have been basically liberalized, and the current core first-and second-tier cities still have a large policy space. In these cities, optimizing housing credit policies, relaxing suburban purchase restrictions, and reducing transaction taxes and fees are still policy directions.
Remention the transformation of villages in the city
Following the meeting of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee in April this year, the meeting once again proposed to actively promote the transformation of villages in the city and the construction of public infrastructure for "both emergency and ordinary use. The executive meeting of the State Council on July 21 also mentioned the active and steady implementation of urban village transformation in mega-cities. Guan Rongxue believes that this will mean that the transformation of urban villages will become one of the key points of real estate development in the future.
In the rapid development of the past few decades, there are some problems in the real estate market, such as "rebuilding the light stock", "emphasizing the market and neglecting the security. Under the background that the real estate market has entered a new stage of development, the policy strength is inclined to the short board part, improving the housing security system and innovating the renewal mode of stock housing are all the meaning of the question.
58 Zhang Bo, Dean of the Anjuke Research Institute, also believes that this meeting has not reduced the attention to affordable housing, combined with the previous deployment of urban village reconstruction, and the official clear that the next step will be to develop multi-channel affordable rental housing. In the future, multiple measures to stimulate social investment to jointly build affordable housing and other policy support will be further strengthened.
Li Yujia stressed that the future policy focus is to combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reform. Including the acceleration of the supply of affordable housing, especially the large-scale construction and distribution of affordable rental housing; it also includes accelerating the transformation of urban villages, solving the problem of new citizens, young people, and migrants integrating into the city, and releasing their consumption potential; including The transformation of old communities releases the potential of residents to improve the quality of housing.
