Or it may experience "three consecutive increases", and the domestic oil price adjustment window opens today. Analysts | finished oil | oil prices
On July 26th at 24:00, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. Institutions predict that the prices of refined oil products may continue to rise this round, ushering in three consecutive increases.
Xu Lei, a refined oil analyst at Zhuochuang Information, believes that during this pricing cycle, despite factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and global economic weakness dragging down oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners have promised to further reduce production in August, exacerbating expectations of supply shortages. In addition, China's economic growth momentum is strong, with multiple favorable factors dominating, driving a rebound in international oil prices.
"Overall, international crude oil has fluctuated and risen, reaching a nearly three-month high. The rate of change in crude oil continues to operate within a positive range, corresponding to the expected increase in retail price limits for refined oil products."
According to institutional calculations, as of July 25th, the ninth working day of this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is 78.50 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of 5.44%. It is expected that the increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be about 240 yuan per ton, equivalent to an increase of about 0.2 yuan per liter of gasoline and diesel.
What is the subsequent trend of oil prices after this round of adjustment?
"The international crude oil fundamentals are still relatively strong, and there is room for price fluctuations to rise." In Xu Lei's view, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the European Central Bank meeting may have a short-term impact on international oil prices. At the same time, in the context of tight supply, multiple international organizations and institutions have raised China's economic growth expectations, which may support oil prices to fluctuate above $80 per barrel.
Jin Lianchuang finished oil analyst Hu Xue also holds a similar view. "In the future, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners reduce production, supply is expected to tighten. In addition, major institutions are optimistic about China's economy and crude oil demand, and international oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and rise."