On the contrary, they have fallen into a new predicament, and the dividends of peace between these two countries have not been shared by Fatah | Hamas | dividends
Since the beginning of this year, the tension between Palestine and Israel has intensified, with Israeli troops clashing multiple times with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank of the Jordan River, and Jerusalem, resulting in a large number of casualties. On the early morning of July 3rd local time, the Israeli army launched the largest military operation in over 20 years in the Jenin area of the northern West Bank of Palestine. On the same day, the United Nations Special Envoy for the Middle East, Thor Vinneslan, stated on social media that the escalation of the situation was "very dangerous", stating that this action once again reminds people that the situation in the West Bank of the Jordan River is "extremely unstable and unpredictable".
On July 3, near the border between Israel and Gaza, Palestinian protesters burn tires.
Numerous signs indicate that after achieving historic reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia and triggering a series of benign domino effects in the Middle East, both sides have not received much peace dividends, but have instead fallen into new strategic dilemmas.
1
The Sandification of the West Bank of the Jordan River and the Marginalization of the Palestinian Authority
The large-scale military operation launched against Jenin in early July resulted in the deployment of over 1000 soldiers to form an infantry brigade, as well as a large number of armored vehicles, bulldozers, and the use of drones for the first time. During the two-day operation, the Israeli military destroyed six weapon manufacturing workshops, nearly 300 explosive devices, and some command and communication institutions of armed factions such as the Jenin Brigade. They confiscated a large number of different types of weapons, resulting in multiple casualties and nearly 4000 displacement on the Palestinian side.
The Israeli authorities stated that the siege of Jenin is not an enemy of the Palestinian National Authority, but rather aimed at eliminating the "terrorist" organizations entrenched in Jenin, namely the military faction of the Islamic Resistance Movement, the "Al Quds Brigade," the military faction of the Islamic Jihad Organization, the "Kassem Brigade," the separatist military organization of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement, the "Al Aqsa Brigade," and the new armed branches derived from the separation of Hamas and Jahad, such as the "Jenin Brigade," "Nablus Brigade," and "Ayash Brigade.".
According to official Israeli statistics, there have been 50 shooting incidents targeting Israelis in Jenin in the past two years, with 19 wanted individuals hiding in the city. Israel accuses Jenin and even neighboring Nablus of becoming a new "safe haven" for terrorists.
The Palestinian Israeli conflict has been ongoing since it erupted again at the end of September 2000. Although Israel's tough policies and delayed peace talks have become the main reasons for the ongoing conflict, it is not ruled out that Israel has diverted the internal turmoil triggered by judicial reform. The fact is that the West Bank of the Jordan River is gradually becoming "desertified", evolving from a "quiet place" for 20 years to the main battlefield of the Palestinian Israeli conflict outside of Gaza.
Since the Israeli siege of the West Bank's central city of Ramallah and the death of Palestinian leader Arafat in 2004, the internal political and security ecology of Palestine has undergone significant changes. Hamas, which advocates for armed struggle, won the transitional legislative elections in 2006, overturning the long history of Fatah and his Palestinian Liberation Organization leading the national independence movement.
Subsequently, as the conflict between Hamas and Fatah intensified and the latter was expelled from the Gaza Strip, Hamas, which was trapped in international isolation, continued to arm and resist Israel, gradually turning the Gaza Strip into the main or even the only battlefield of the Palestinian Israeli conflict. Since the end of 2008, Israel's multiple large-scale strikes and retaliations against the Palestinian side have targeted Gaza, targeting Hamas and its more hardline allies such as Jahad. No matter how fierce the war is and how heavy the Palestinian losses are, the vast West Bank controlled by Fatah has remained basically calm, and the security forces of the Palestinian National Authority have been watching from the shore, causing the Palestinian side to divide and govern from a geographical, political, and social level, becoming two centers of action against Israel.
The resurgence of the Jenin conflict means that the political influence and military infiltration of Hamas and Jahad have penetrated deep into the West Bank, eroding the remaining territories of Fatah and the Palestinian Authority, which means there are signs of "desertification" in the West Bank. According to the Oslo Agreement signed between Palestine and Israel in 1993, the West Bank is divided into three decentralized management zones: A zone is under the jurisdiction of the Palestinian side for civil and security purposes; Zone B is under the jurisdiction of the Pakistani side for civil matters and for security purposes; Both civil and security matters in Zone C are under the jurisdiction of Israel. Jenin is located in Zone A and is under the jurisdiction of the Palestinian side, but if Israel believes that the Palestinian side is unable to manage the safety of this area, it will take its place.
people evacuate from jenin refugee camp in west bank xinhua/faxin, July 3
In fact, whether it is Jenin or Nablus, the Palestinian national authority has lost control and is being marginalized. After the outbreak of the Jenin conflict in early July, the Palestinian security forces watched as the Israeli army launched a major attack, leading to public protests by the local people against the Palestinian National Authority and attempting to expel them from these two autonomous cities. The Palestinian national authority has also fallen into some kind of division, with hardliners urging President Abbas to cut off ties with Israel and cancel the clause in the Oslo Agreement that recognizes Israel as a sovereign state. All Abbas could do at that time was publicly condemn Israel's encirclement actions and suspend Palestinian Israeli security cooperation.
For this reason, despite Israel's dissatisfaction with Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority, it has also made every effort to protect this peace partner, in order to prevent Palestine from being completely plunged into the abyss of comprehensive armed confrontation with Hamas and Jahad. Some analysts believe that if Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority continue to do nothing, allowing the cause of Palestinian independence and statehood to sink into a quagmire, allowing the people of Gaza and the West Bank to be exposed to fire and water, and losing the support of the entire West Bank and even the majority of the population, it may be a matter of time.
2
Israel is deeply trapped in a vicious circle
Israel has repeated the consistent deterrence strategy and absolute security thinking and logic of the past 20 years by causing huge losses of life and materials to the Palestinian side. But in the face of some radical elements on the Palestinian side and the lower class people who have gradually lost faith in peace, Israel is deeply trapped in a vicious cycle of violent politics and using violence to control violence.
In fact, the reason why Jenin has become what Israel calls a "terrorist sanctuary" and the West Bank has been "desertified" is, in the medium to long term, due to the signing of the Oslo Agreement, especially after the end of the five-year transitional autonomy of Palestine, the delay in achieving a breakthrough in the final status negotiations between Palestine and Israel, especially Israel's stubborn refusal to make concessions on the two deadlocked issues of Jerusalem's ownership and refugee return; In recent times, Israeli society has continued to tilt towards the right and gradually deviated from the "two-state solution" roadmap, continuously damaging the fundamental and long-term interests of the Palestinian side.
For the Pakistani side, if the economy cannot be improved and a just and lasting peace cannot be achieved, the legitimacy of the Palestinian national authority will be compromised; And Hamas and Jahad received support mainly because they raised the banner of nationalism and were close to the grassroots. Israel's long-term tough policy towards Palestine has increasingly weakened the legitimacy of the Palestinian national authority, squeezing the living space of the main and powerful factions within the country. At the same time, it has opened the door for the growth and expansion of radical factions such as Hamas and Jahad, thereby transforming Israel from mainly facing the "Gaza threat" to facing a new challenge of simultaneously facing the "two line threats" of Gaza and the West Bank. In the end, the right-wing forces on the Israeli side have dug a pit for themselves, turning Israel into the contemporary "Sisyphus" - forever burdened with the heavy shackles of occupying Palestine and constantly consuming itself.
On July 4th, in the West Bank city of Hebron, Israeli soldiers targeted Xinhua News Agency during a conflict
The Jenin conflict may lead Israel into a bigger and more powerless security nightmare. Although Israel has normalized its relations with several distant enemies such as Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, and Morocco under the push of the United States, the neighboring enemies have not been eliminated or weakened, but have gradually formed a encirclement with Israel:
Hezbollah in Lebanon to the north has always been a major strategic opponent and mortal enemy; In the northeast direction, the prolonged civil war in Syria has led to an unprecedented influx of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah armed forces, attempting to establish a base and long-term presence. Israel occasionally launches air strikes deep into Syria; Hamas and Jahad formed a united front under the banner of "liberating Islamic land", and even the secularized Fatah has been infiltrated by external forces. Nowadays, the situation in Jenin and Nablus is clearly out of control, which means that the political and military influence of major Middle Eastern powers has surpassed that of the Gaza Strip and taken root in the West Bank.
At the end of the day, Israel's tough line and zero sum thinking objectively suppressed and suffocated the Palestinian leader and power, weaving increasingly entangled tangles for itself.
3
The end point of peace is far and away
In mid June, Abbas completed his fifth state visit to China. During this period, China put forward three proposals for resolving the Palestinian issue and expressed its willingness to play a positive role in achieving internal reconciliation and promoting peace talks for the Palestinian side. This will help the international community pay more attention to the situation between Palestine and Israel and promote regional peace processes.
Objectively speaking, the current reconciliation situation in the Middle East is mainly the cessation of identity politics and factional struggles between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which cannot change the overall trend of marginalization of the Palestinian issue, nor fundamentally change the hostile relationship between Iran and Israel, nor can it promote mutual concessions between Palestine and Israel on core issues.
On July 10th, the Ministry of Security expanded the distribution of weapons to citizens in order to deal with possible attacks from the Palestinian side, thereby increasing the number of legally armed Israelis to 200000, which increased the risk of Israelis, especially radical settlers, shooting at Palestinians; On the same day, the "Ayash Brigade" fired "Kasem-1" rockets from Jenin towards nearby Jewish settlements... Therefore, the Jenin conflict is only a new starting point for the strategic dilemma between Palestine and Israel, and the end of peace between Palestine and Israel is still far away.
