Not affecting Biden's hosting of the US, Japan, and South Korea "holiday festival", Hawaii wildfire is out of control

Is the US, Japan, and South Korea alliance fully upgraded?

China Newsweek was published in the 1106th issue of the magazine "China Newsweek" on August 28, 2023

The uncontrollable wildfires in Hawaii have not affected US President Biden's hosting of a "holiday extravaganza" for Japanese and South Korean leaders. On August 18th local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol arrived at Camp David, becoming the first foreign leaders Biden has received at this resort since taking office in 2021. This is also the first time that leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea have held a separate summit outside of a multilateral meeting.

As the host, Biden made full preparations for this historic meeting, and Japanese and South Korean leaders were specially invited to take the US President's helicopter to Camp David, where the US President has received close allies multiple times. During the meeting and press conference, the leaders of the three countries did not wear ties to show intimacy. In a relatively relaxed atmosphere, they jointly announced that a new chapter in the tripartite relationship had begun.

Where does the "new chapter" point to?However, in reality, the statement begins by listing the four major tests faced by the United States, Japan, and South Korea at "historical turning points": geopolitical competition, climate crisis, Russian military invasion of Ukraine, and nuclear threat. Among them, "Russian invasion of Ukraine" only occupies a paragraph at the end of the statement.

On the contrary, the joint statement almost entirely revolves around "geopolitical competition", focusing on security cooperation across the Indo Pacific region, promoting cooperation with ASEAN and Pacific island countries, maintaining a "rule-based international order" in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, responding to North Korea's nuclear threat, strengthening supply chain resilience, and shaping artificial intelligence international governance that conforms to "common values". The Korean Herald quoted South Korean experts as saying that these contents are "sending messages to Beijing.".

The so-called "new chapter" is not simply adding up old bilateral cooperation mechanisms such as the Japan US Security Treaty and the US South Korea Joint Defense Treaty. On the one hand, the summit institutionalizes trilateral meetings between leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea, foreign ministers, defense ministers, and national security advisors, and adds trilateral dialogues between finance and commerce ministers, as well as the annual "Indo Pacific trilateral dialogue". At the same time, it regularly holds trilateral joint exercises in multiple fields under the guise of addressing North Korea's nuclear threat. As Yin Xiyue pointed out, after the comprehensive establishment of the dialogue mechanism, the trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea can now be combined with AUKUS and QUAD, becoming the third close multilateral security alliance established by the United States in the Indo Pacific region.

On the other hand, the summit reached a trilateral crisis negotiation pledge to address common challenges, provocations, and threats. US media pointed out that although the agreement is not yet a joint defense commitment like NATO, considering the long-standing historical conflicts and territorial disputes between Japan and South Korea, the two countries signed the agreement only three months after the thawing of relations in May this year, which is a "bold step".

Previously, the mainstream view in the Washington policy community was that the United States would not form an Indo Pacific NATO. The most commonly used argument among analysts is that the United States has too many historical and practical differences in its partners in the Indo Pacific region, and differences in culture, systems, and development strategies make it impossible for all parties to form a transatlantic defense alliance. Senior Asian experts from the United States, such as Bao Daoge, have also advised Biden not to interfere in the complex historical disputes between Japan and South Korea. Based on this logic, forming "small alliances" with partner countries in different fields has become a key means for the US to build the "Indo Pacific circle of friends".

With the conservative South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol, who advocates for reconciliation with Japan, taking office, Biden seized the opportunity of reconciliation between Japan and South Korea, resumed the 12 year hiatus in mutual visits between the leaders of Japan and South Korea, and quickly transformed it into a small multilateral security alliance led by the United States. This has to some extent changed the pessimistic assessment of "Indo Pacific NATO" by the Washington policy community. Some commentators refer to the "new chapter" of the US Japan South Korea alliance as the "Little NATO", which is not without reason. And whether the US government, which has multiple "Indo Pacific NATO", will include the construction of "Indo Pacific NATO" as a strategic goal in the future has become an important issue again.

However, whether the United States will change its partnership strategy in the Asia Pacific region depends on the actual results of the comprehensive upgrade of the US Japan South Korea alliance. In South Korea, Yoon Seok yeol's approval rating for his administration is still hovering around 30%, with over half of the public dissatisfied with the current government's "bowing to Japan". Former South Korean Ambassador to Japan, Shin Jue soo, emphasized that "we need to strengthen the connection between Seoul and Tokyo, and also make room for China.".

In Japan, important security advisors to the Liberal Democratic Party, such as Yuichi Hosiya, argue that since South Korea will be constantly changing between pro Japanese and anti Japanese governments, Japan does not need to vigorously develop relations with South Korea. In their respective security strategies, Japan and South Korea's characterization of China is also different from that of the United States. It remains to be seen whether the "new chapter" in the alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea can be transformed into a "new normal".

China Newsweek, Issue 32, 2023