New Bottled Old Wine: The United States' "New Two Hands" in China Strategy: Actually, Is It "Old Two Hands" or "New Two Hands"
Recently, several US officials visited China one after another, saying that the Biden administration has no intention of curbing China's development and does not seek to decouple from China. It is willing to maintain communication with China, maintain normal US China economic and trade relations, and promote the stable development of bilateral relations. However, at the same time, the US has approved the arms sales case to Taiwan, provided military financing to Taiwan, continued to stir up trouble on issues related to Tibet and the South China Sea, and publicly criticized the Chinese economy. These reflect the obvious dual nature of the Biden administration's strategy towards China, namely its manipulation of "new two hands". In the past few decades, the United States has used "contact+containment" as its "old hands" in its strategy towards China; The Biden administration's "new hands" are "competition+control competition".
"Old Two Hands" - Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States decades ago, the typical feature of the United States' strategy towards China has been the combination of "contact+containment". On the one hand, it has attracted China to integrate into the international system and expand cooperation with China, and on the other hand, it has quietly promoted infiltration and containment of China. It is precisely because of the combination of these two approaches that the relationship between China and the United States has always shown a high degree of complexity.
"New Two Hands" - With the accelerated evolution of the century long changes, the game of great powers has become the main theme of international politics, and China US relations have entered a new track. The United States' new strategy towards China is gradually taking shape and presenting a new two hand approach, namely "competition+control competition". Especially recently, the characteristics of "new hands" have been quite prominent.
The new characteristics of "new hands"
Among them, "competition" is the main part of the United States' strategy towards China. This includes decoupling and disconnection at the economic level, cliques and alliances at the political level, deterrence and containment at the security level, smearing and belittling at the public opinion level, and constraints and lockdowns at the rule level. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have been ruthless and constantly escalating in this regard. Looking to the future, the United States' competition with China is far more than just these, and more ruthless measures may not have been revealed yet.
At the same time, "controlling competition" is also very obvious. If the essence of "competition" is to contain pressure on China, then "controlling competition" is the management of this uncontrolled suppression. The concepts repeatedly mentioned by the Biden administration since taking office, such as "guardrails," "bottom plates," and "parameters," as well as the self justification of "de risk" rather than "decoupling," and the repeated verbal promises made by the Biden administration, such as "four no's and one no's", can all be classified as "controlling competition.". Competition is strategic, while controlling competition is strategic and serves to initiate competition.
Why do we use "new tricks"?
The objective reason is the highly complex structure formed in the long-term relationship between China and the United States, and more importantly, the three subjective intentions of the US government.
——The basic tactic during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union was to attempt to provide multiple arguments and increase the difficulty of opponent analysis by releasing mixed signals.
——It is not uncommon in the history of great power games over the past few hundred years to appease opponents' emotions and prevent them from overreacting by demonstrating self-restraint.
——Expand influence channels by reserving a "dialogue window" and strive for limited cooperation from opponents. If this round of interaction between China and the United States is put in the context of the rising financial risks in the United States, the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the sudden rise of pressure on global climate change governance, we can have a clearer understanding of the motives behind the "new two hands", especially the "control competition" hand.
"New hands" are destined to fail!
The game between China and the United States is a long-term, all-round, multi turn, and interactive process. To recognize its overall trend, it is necessary to look at it in the long river of history, in the global context, and in a dynamic and dialectical manner.
The "new two handed" strategy of the United States, even if it benefits slightly at the moment, does not mean that it can be laughed at until the end; Even if some achievements are made locally, there may still be errors in synthesis. It can even be said that the United States' new two pronged strategy towards China is destined to fail. The fundamental reason for destined failure is that the timing and momentum of historical development are not on the side of the United States. In the current highly developed world modernization process, the international community cannot allow a country known for its hegemonic hegemony to act recklessly. The fundamental reason for destined failure is that China cannot act at the pace of the United States, but always maintains strong strategic determination and confidence, adhering to a "two handed approach". The "new two hands" of the US strategy towards China are just old wine in new bottles, but in reality, they are just "old two hands". It is impossible for the United States to compete with China through a small trick of "new hands". Only by completely abandoning hegemonic thinking, establishing a common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable global security concept, and persisting in promoting international common security, can we achieve the right path on earth!
In the new era and new journey, the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has entered an irreversible historical process. China will never let its guard down because of the United States' beautiful words. Faced with hegemonic hegemony, China will continue to deepen its great struggle with many new historical characteristics. The various obstacles, containment, and suppression by the United States will only make China more courageous and independent in the face of war. To truly achieve "from Bali to San Francisco", the United States needs to show enough sincerity.
