Multiple major banks have made clear statements, heavyweight! The interest rate reduction of existing housing loans is imminent
Recently, how to optimize the real estate policy in the next step has become a focus, and many cities have already taken measures. Among them, the implementation of "recognizing a house but not a loan" and the adjustment of interest rates on existing housing loans has attracted much attention, and many homebuyers are also looking forward to it.
Is the adjustment of interest rates for existing housing loans coming soon?
On August 29th, Agricultural Bank of China held a mid-term performance conference. Lin Li, Vice President of Agricultural Bank of China, responded to the adjustment of interest rates for existing housing loans by stating that the People's Bank of China has recently provided clear guidance to commercial banks to adjust interest rates for existing personal housing loans in an orderly manner. Our experience is that this opinion is beneficial for reducing the financial burden on some existing resident loan customers and also for commercial banks to smooth out the pressure of early repayment. After the relevant policy proposals are clarified, we will quickly formulate specific operational rules and prepare the contract text as soon as possible to ensure system integration. As a state-owned bank, we adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living, not for speculation", and we will do our best to provide services that benefit the people.
On the same day, China Merchants Bank held a mid-term performance exchange meeting. Regarding the adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates, Peng Jiawen, Assistant to the President of China Merchants Bank, stated that from the central bank's voice, "encouragement and support" has directly become "guidance". He judged that the reduction of interest rates on existing housing loans is also an inevitable and highly probable event. At present, China Merchants Bank has formulated corresponding contingency plans, but there is no final plan yet. The main consideration is that there are many factors that need to be taken into account.
Regarding the issue of interest rate adjustment for existing housing loans, at the recent performance conference of CITIC Bank for the first half of 2023, Vice President Xie Zhibin stated that CITIC Bank closely monitors regulatory guidance and market trends, has timely sorted and analyzed the bank's internal business situation, and has prepared contingency plans for possible business adjustments. Based on the information currently available, the understanding of policies varies among different banks in the industry.
On the 29th, a screenshot of the notice on convening the kickoff meeting for the adjustment of the stock interest rate of personal housing loans was also circulated online, showing that Bank of Communications plans to hold the kickoff meeting for the adjustment of the stock interest rate of personal housing loans on August 30th. The reporter consulted the Shenzhen branch of Bank of Communications regarding the adjustment of the stock interest rate of personal housing loans, and the staff stated that no specific notice has been issued yet.
The practice of "recognizing houses but not loans" in first tier cities has not yet been implemented
In addition to the adjustment of interest rates on existing housing loans, the issue of "not having to subscribe to loans" has also received much attention.
On August 25th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued a notice on optimizing the standards for determining the number of housing units in personal housing loans, promoting the implementation of the policy measures of "not recognizing loans but recognizing houses" for the purchase of first home loans. The document clearly states that the policy of "recognizing houses but not loans" is included as a policy tool in the "One City, One Policy" toolbox for cities to choose independently. That is to say, the specific implementation will be decided by each city.
In Shenzhen, there are market rumors that the detailed rules for "recognizing a house but not a loan" have been implemented, including multiple properties in different locations or loans. As long as there is no house in Shenzhen, it can be recognized according to the down payment ratio for the first home and the loan interest rate. However, the reporter consulted with personal loan departments such as Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Bank of Communications, and as of the 29th, bank staff have all replied that they have not yet received relevant documents. "This is not a question of whether a particular bank has executed it, we have not received any relevant notification yet."
Generally speaking, "recognizing a house but not a loan" refers to commercial banks determining the loan ratio only based on whether the family has a house under their name, regardless of whether the purchasing family has a housing loan record. Beike Research Institute believes that the implementation of "recognizing a house but not a loan" can reduce the cost of house replacement and accelerate the release of demand for improvement. On the one hand, it enables the circulation between the demand for housing and the improvement group. The improvement group will list and sell their existing housing, increase the supply of demand housing, meet the demand for demand to enter the market, and achieve a virtuous cycle between the demand for housing and the improvement group. On the other hand, improving the sex group's ability to sell second-hand houses and purchase new ones can promote a virtuous cycle between second-hand and new houses. Furthermore, sales in the new housing market improved, and real estate companies accelerated their payments, ultimately achieving a virtuous cycle between the real estate market and the industry.
How is the market reaction
Whether it is "recognizing a house but not a loan" or adjusting the interest rate of existing housing loans, the new policies and regulations for the real estate market in core first and second tier cities are expected to be implemented one after another.
As a super first tier city, Shenzhen's relevant policies have not changed. How have all parties in the market responded? The latest data released by the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association shows that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen last week was 667 units, a month on month increase of 8.3%. At the same time, the sales volume of second-hand houses continues to rebound, and the willingness of homeowners to sell has increased.
The reporter interviewed several senior real estate agency managers in the area, and they all believed that both homeowners and homebuyers are still waiting for the introduction of policy details. "Everyone is actually 'waiting', but the expectations seem to be very consistent, that is, the current market environment is different from before, so everyone is relatively calm."
At the same time, news of discount recovery was also reported from several properties in Shenzhen, but some developers immediately clarified. For example, China Resources Land Shenzhen Region issued a clarification statement on its official official account, saying, "Recently, the company learned that the screenshots of the meeting minutes about the sales price of Runyao Mansion were circulated on the Internet, and it was verified that no relevant meeting was held for the project, and no decision on price adjustment was made. All information about price is subject to the announcement of the project sales office."
Industry insiders have expressed that the "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching, and real estate companies should seize the favorable opportunity, do a good job in marketing planning, achieve effective recovery of real estate sales, and improve cash flow.
Yan Yue, the research director of E-House Research Institute, believes that due to the coexistence of hot and cold in the real estate market in some major cities, and the high demand for the implementation of the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy, it is expected that first tier cities will gradually introduce new mortgage policies from the end of August to early September.
According to He Qianru, Director of the National Research Center of Meilian Property, even if regulatory policies are relaxed, the market cannot immediately enter a channel of simultaneous increase in quantity and price. Therefore, for owners who need to dispose of properties in the near future, they can certainly wait and see, but if they want to sell properties smoothly, their pricing still needs to be competitive. For first tier cities, it is hoped that policies can be introduced as soon as possible to stimulate the trading activity of the real estate market, in order to promote the market to return to a healthy trading state as soon as possible.
