More patience is needed. Economic Daily: Real estate market stabilizes in the first quarter | recovery | market
The real estate market showed clear signs of recovery in the first quarter of this year. But in April and May, this trend did not continue better. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the overall increase in residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities decreased compared to the previous month, with fewer cities experiencing a month on month increase in prices. From the market response, the market activity in May is still not high compared to the first quarter.
At present, the real estate market is still in a period of adjustment, and the decline in April and May should be viewed rationally. Before 2023, real estate development enterprises gradually faced tight funding chains, and the impact of the epidemic on construction progress made it difficult to deliver new commercial residential buildings on time. The market is clearly declining, and homebuyers are in a strong wait-and-see mood. In the first quarter of 2023, many cities experienced a double increase in sales volume and sales prices, and the current decline is considered a normal fluctuation in the process of stabilization and recovery. Relevant departments and regions continue to introduce supportive policies, relax restrictions on home purchases, alleviate financial pressure, and increase financial support. However, the implementation and effectiveness of these policies will take some time. We should have more patience and confidence in the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market, as well as its sustained, stable and healthy development.
Actually, overall it may not be that bad. Both in terms of sales volume and sales price, the current real estate market remains stable and has not experienced a significant decline. There are obvious signs of recovery in the first quarter of this year, due to the concentrated release of the backlog of housing demand in the past year and a half or even longer after the optimization and adjustment of epidemic policies. There was a certain decline in April and May compared to the first quarter, which is a normal adjustment. Some cases of "low down payment", "negative down payment", and house price reductions currently only occur in individual projects with relatively remote geographical locations, and do not represent the situation of the entire city. The number of second-hand housing listings has increased in some cities for multiple reasons, including a certain amount of demand for replacement. Some homebuyers upgrade their living conditions by selling old houses for new ones or selling small ones for larger ones. Moreover, "sell one buy one" can facilitate the transfer of ownership with collateral, as well as enjoy convenience and benefits such as tax reduction and exemption, which also has a certain promoting effect on second-hand housing transactions.
We should still be confident in the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. From January to April, the national residential sales area increased by 2.7%, and residential sales increased by 11.8%, both of which have accelerated. The tight financial situation of real estate development enterprises has also been alleviated. The news from real estate brokerage firms shows that the current enthusiasm of consumers to view houses is still good, indicating that the real demand for buying houses is not weak. Another real estate brokerage firm also believes that they are confident in the overall stability of the market, and the market transaction volume in 2023 will experience a steady recovery compared to last year.
The urbanization process in our country is still steadily advancing, and the high economic activity has led to frequent population mobility. The people still have high expectations for the improvement of living quality, which can strongly support the large demand in the real estate market in our country. The real estate industry will still be a big and good industry, and the real estate market is expected to further achieve stable and healthy development.
For the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, more patience is needed. There should be a bit of patience in the sustained effects of various policies that promote the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. In the past 20 years of rapid development, the real estate industry has formed a "high leverage, high debt, high turnover" model, which will gradually become history. Our demand for housing has shifted from having it in the past to being good or not, and the market has gradually entered a stage of smaller total volume, slower growth rate than in the past, and stable development.
In the process of transitioning from the "three highs" to the new development model, enterprises are actively exploring and policies will gradually be improved. In this process, enterprises need to change their mindset and even experience the pains of transformation. If the high turnover model in the past has supported this industry to make faster money, in the future, the real estate industry will usher in new opportunities in areas such as leasing and purchasing, operating service-oriented businesses, and urban renewal. It is more likely to make small, slow, and hard money, and seek benefits from management, service, and operation. It also requires more patience and effort.
At present, we should continue to make every effort to promote the delivery of guaranteed buildings, and complete the delivery of houses on schedule and with guaranteed quality, which will help restore the confidence of all parties in the real estate market. We should further explore the space for policy adjustment and optimization to help the market stabilize and recover. Strongly support the purchase of the first home and reasonably support the purchase of a second home. We should turn our attention back to the houses themselves, and providing better quality and better housing that meets market demand will help promote housing consumption.
In the long run, we should continue to improve the housing security system, so that new citizens, young people, and others can take root in the city through affordable housing, and work hard to alleviate their housing concerns. After they have a certain amount of savings, they will gradually form new purchasing power.