Maybe it hasn't arrived yet, the hottest year may have reached high temperatures and El Ni ñ o phenomena worldwide

In the just past June, many northern regions of China experienced a series of intense high-temperature weather processes, with North China and the Huanghuai region experiencing the most prominent high-temperature phenomena, and Beijing having the highest number of high-temperature days in history since 1961. As China officially enters the summer heat on July 11th, the high-temperature "baking" test will continue.

At the same time, many countries are experiencing extreme high temperatures, with global sea surface temperatures reaching new highs and the Antarctic sea ice area reaching a historic low. The World Meteorological Organization released a report on July 4th local time confirming the occurrence of El Ni ñ o, which is expected to break the record for high temperatures within 5 years.

In the summer of 2023, the world is facing a "big grill". What exactly caused this? How should we respond?

Article | Tian Shuo, Observer of Outlook Think Tank

Source | Outlook Think Tank

1

Frequent occurrence of extreme weather

Since the beginning of this year, China has had the highest number of high-temperature days in its history since 1961. As of June 30th, the average number of days with high temperatures in China was 4.1, which is 1.9 days more than the same period in previous years. Compared with the same period throughout the year, the eastern part of North China, the northern part of East China, the western part of South China, the southern part of Southwest China, the southern part of Xinjiang, and the western part of Inner Mongolia have an extra 5-10 days, and some areas have an extra 10 days.

On June 23, 2023, the thermometer showed that the outdoor temperature in Beijing exceeded 40 degrees Celsius. Image: Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Muzi

301 national meteorological stations across the country have reached the extreme event standard for daily maximum temperatures, while 110 meteorological stations, including Qiaojia and Yuanmou in Yunnan, Tanghekou in Beijing, and Langfang in Hebei, have reached or exceeded historical extremes in daily maximum temperatures.

Entering July, the largest range of high temperature weather since the beginning of this year has been put into operation. During this process, some areas in the north have once again reached 40 ℃, and extreme high temperatures may occur in some areas such as Hebei and Liaoning. The National Climate Center predicts that this summer, there will be periodic high temperature processes in North China, Central and Southern China, and Northeast Southwest China.

2

Global suffering

According to data released by the Mexican Ministry of Health on June 28th, the highest temperature in Mexico reached 49 ℃ in June, and the extreme heat of the month has caused over 100 deaths in the country. Between June 12th and 25th alone, Mexico reported over 1000 emergency situations related to extreme heat, of which 104 resulted in fatalities. As of now, the number of deaths caused by heat in Mexico is almost three times that of 2022.

On June 26, 2023, a man was relaxing at the beach in Miami, Florida, USA. Image: Xinhua News Agency/Faxin

In the United States, as of June 28th, the number of people affected by various high temperature warnings has reached one-third of the national population, and the sustained high temperatures in the southern United States have caused at least 17 deaths. According to CNN, the heatwave affecting the southern region will expand northward and eastward, with an expected record breaking of over 150 heatwaves in the next six days.

Europe cannot be spared either. The Spanish National Meteorological Agency announced on June 26th that the country has experienced the first round of heatwave weather this summer, with the highest temperature in the southern region reaching 44 ℃. In response to high temperatures, some places have implemented bans on outdoor work in extreme high temperatures.

The Spanish National Meteorological Agency stated that since 2011, there have been six heatwaves in June, compared to only five heatwaves in the previous 35 years.

Britain, with a temperate maritime climate, has just experienced the hottest June on record since 1884. According to preliminary data released by the UK Met Office on July 3rd, the average temperature in June reached 15.8 ℃. The previous highest record occurred in 1976, at 14.9 ℃.

According to data from the Indian Meteorological Agency, the highest temperature in northern India recently reached 43.5 ℃, higher than the average level in previous years. Nearly 170 people in the most populous states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have died from the scorching heat. The heatwave also caused widespread power outages in Uttar Pradesh, leaving many people suffering without air conditioning and fans. According to a survey by the World Weather Attribution Union, an international scientific research institution, climate change has increased the probability of South Asia experiencing extreme high temperatures by at least 30 times this year.

In fact, since the second quarter of this year, heatwaves have hit multiple countries in the northern hemisphere. From a global perspective, Asia has experienced the hottest months in history in April and May, with most Southeast Asian countries experiencing temperatures exceeding 40 ℃ since June. The temperature in Vietnam reached a record high of 44.1 ℃ in April. On April 15th, Daphne in northwestern Thailand set a record high temperature of 45.4 ℃.

In early July, 128 out of 180 regions in South Korea issued a heatwave warning, with most areas experiencing daytime temperatures approaching 35 ℃. Temperatures have also skyrocketed in many parts of Japan, with the capital Tokyo experiencing extreme high temperatures for six consecutive days, exceeding 35 ℃.

North Africa and the Middle East also frequently set records for high temperatures. Even in Antarctica, which is currently experiencing winter, the area where the Wonadsky Research Station is located has recently broken the temperature record for July with a temperature of 8.7 ℃.

All of this indicates that the long lost El Ni ñ o will reappear.

3

The strongest in history?

The World Meteorological Organization released a report on July 4th local time confirming that the tropical Pacific region has experienced an El Ni ñ o phenomenon for the first time in seven years, laying the foundation for possible global temperature surges and destructive weather and climate patterns.

The latest forecast from WMO indicates that the likelihood of an El Ni ñ o event continuing in the second half of 2023 is as high as 90%. In its report in May this year, WMO pointed out that there will be at least one year between 2023 and 2027 that will break the hottest record set in 2016, with a probability of 98%. Mufuma Okia, head of the WMO Regional Meteorological Forecasting Service, said at a press conference that "we may experience the hottest year on record" in the next five years.

Considering that El Ni ñ o usually affects global temperatures in the second year of its formation, 2024 may witness the most severe impact of El Ni ñ o. The Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization, Petri Taras, said that the El Ni ñ o phenomenon will "make record breaking high temperatures more common, and many parts of the world and oceans will experience more extreme high temperatures."

In fact, as early as June 8th, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States issued an alert stating that the El Ni ñ o phenomenon had already occurred and was expected to continue into winter, with an 84% probability of developing into a moderate to strong El Ni ñ o.

According to data from the Japan Meteorological Agency, the surface heat storage in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has reached its highest record since statistics began in 1949. Professor Yasuhiro Watanabe from the Institute of Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies at the University of Tokyo said that it is expected to develop into a strong El Ni ñ o phenomenon.

The National Climate Center of China also predicts that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will maintain an El Ni ñ o state in the next three months, and the sea surface temperature index will continue to rise, forming an eastern type El Ni ñ o event of moderate or higher intensity in the autumn of this year.

Due to the early occurrence of the El Ni ñ o phenomenon this year, there is a lot of room for development. If it develops into a strong El Ni ñ o phenomenon, it may bring rainstorm, flood or extreme high temperature in the summer of 2024. At present, multiple institutions have predicted that there is a high possibility of setting a new global record for the warmest weather in 2023 or 2024. Whether it can truly break the record depends on the intensity and duration of El Ni ñ o.

The El Ni ñ o phenomenon is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with rising ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, occurring on average every 2 to 7 years and typically lasting for 9 to 12 months. According to the definition of the meteorological department, if the sea surface temperature in a specific area of the East Pacific Ocean is observed to be 0.5 ℃ higher than usual for three consecutive months, it indicates that an El Ni ñ o state has been entered. If the high temperature persists for more than 5 months, it is confirmed to be an El Ni ñ o event. According to the standards of China's meteorological department, a strong El Ni ñ o event can be considered if the temperature in a specific sea area of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is greater than or equal to 2 ℃, and a super strong event can be considered if the temperature is greater than or equal to 2.5 ℃.

According to this standard, there have been a total of 20 El Ni ñ o events on Earth since 1951, including three super strong El Ni ñ o events that occurred in 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2014-2016, respectively. After each occurrence of a strong El Ni ñ o, it will have an impact on the global atmospheric circulation, leading to abnormal climate and extreme weather outbreaks worldwide, and China is no exception.

For example, in 1983, there was a big flood in Shaanxi, in 1998, there was a big flood in the Yangtze River basin, and in 2014-2016, extreme typhoons and rainstorm occurred frequently in China.

The phenomenon of abnormal decrease in seawater temperature in the central eastern Pacific equator, which is opposite to the El Ni ñ o phenomenon, is called the La Ni ñ a phenomenon. The El Ni ñ o Southern Oscillation, which includes both, can cause changes in global temperature and precipitation. This year's El Ni ñ o phenomenon is even more complex. The La Ni ñ a phenomenon has been ongoing for nearly three years from the summer of 2020 to early spring of 2023. Some meteorological experts pointed out that extreme weather events such as rainstorm are likely to occur during the transition from La Nina to El Nino.

four

Double stacking

When an El Ni ñ o event occurs, seawater abnormally heats up and transfers some of the heat and water to the atmosphere, which can easily cause a rise in temperature. Since 1980, the global average temperature has broken records 12 times, with 10 of them occurring during the year of El Ni ñ o. The last time the global temperature record was broken occurred in 2016, and 2015 and 2016 set the warmest historical record in the world since 1850 for two consecutive years. At that time, the strongest El Ni ñ o phenomenon since the beginning of this century occurred, which was considered one of the important factors driving global temperature to reach new highs.

As stated in the WMO report, with the return of El Ni ñ o, the Earth will once again face the risk of rising temperatures, and the Paris Agreement's 1.5 ℃ warming target will also face additional challenges.

In recent years, heatwaves have become more frequent in June, and scientists generally believe that this is related to the combination of global climate change caused by human activities and the naturally occurring El Ni ñ o phenomenon.

Dirk Arnt, director of the National Environmental Information Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, described the impact of El Ni ñ o as "jumping up the escalator of climate change.".

Kasten Haustein, an atmospheric radiation researcher at the University of Leipzig in Germany, said that the highest global temperature occurs at the end of July every year, and we are likely to face higher temperatures. Haustein also said that July is likely to be the "hottest month" in 120000 years.

According to Zhou Bing, Chief Expert of Climate Services at the China Meteorological Administration, the extreme high temperatures in northern Chinese cities since June this year have also been indirectly affected by El Ni ñ o.

"As El Ni ñ o continues to strengthen, the summer of 2023 is likely to surpass the summer of 2016 and become the hottest summer in history." Professor Friedrich Otto from Imperial College London, UK, said that as long as fossil fuel consumption in human society cannot be reduced, the trend of climate warming will not stop.

five

Widespread impact

Agriculture is a field directly affected by climate, and climate change has posed a threat to agricultural production in many regions. For developing countries, due to the lack of modern agricultural facilities such as greenhouses, the impact of external weather is more pronounced. The emergence of El Ni ñ o phenomenon will exacerbate crop yield reduction, leading to food shortages and price increases, directly affecting the stability of the global food supply chain.

From the past, El Ni ñ o has led to increased rainfall and even flooding in the southern United States, South America, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, while severe droughts will occur in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Australia, and other regions. These regions, which are most affected by El Ni ñ o, happen to cover the world's major food producing areas and important exporting countries.

When the strongest El Ni ñ o phenomenon occurred in 2015-2016, the global food supply chain suffered a certain impact: in 2016, due to the prominent drought in India, the wheat planting area and yield continued to decline, and the total wheat production dropped to the lowest in five years. The corn production of Brazil, a major corn producing country, also declined. The southern region of Africa, with a population of approximately 14 million, is threatened by severe drought and hunger due to the global El Ni ñ o phenomenon.

According to historical data, within one year after the start of El Ni ñ o, global non fuel commodity prices have risen by approximately 5.3%. On June 29th, the Financial Times website reported that the rise in temperature poses a threat to the growth of major Southeast Asian crops and cash crops such as palm oil, rice, and coffee beans. Drought and water scarcity have also had an impact on the rapidly developing manufacturing industry in the region.

Thai research institutions predict that the comprehensive agricultural economic losses in Thailand may exceed 60 billion baht due to the impact of the El Ni ñ o phenomenon. And Malaysia, the palm oil producing country, has also predicted that production may decrease by 20% next year.

In addition, according to the Nikkei Chinese website, due to meteorological disasters such as floods, Ivory Coast, the largest producer of cocoa beans, has been plagued by cocoa crop failures since the autumn of 2022. This has led to a surge in the international price of cocoa beans, with its London futures price closing 30% higher on June 27 compared to the end of 2022, reaching a new high since 1977.

Meanwhile, the impact of El Ni ñ o on the world is also reflected at the biological level. At the bottom of the sea, corals are facing the threat of El Ni ñ o, and marine organisms that rely on coral reefs for survival may also face extinction.

Land is also not immune, and under the influence of high temperatures, mosquito activity will become more rampant. The spread of diseases such as dengue fever and malaria is highly likely to further expand.

Since the beginning of this year, Chile and Peru in South America have experienced severe outbreaks of dengue fever. The hot and dry weather will put tropical rainforests in a "dehydrated" state, making vegetation growth difficult and carbon absorption in the "lungs of the earth" severely disrupted.

Faced with the strong appearance of El Ni ñ o and its potential impact, as Petri Taras said, governments around the world should "be prepared, establish warning systems, reduce the impact on people's health, local ecosystems, and economies", and also prepare for more "destructive weather events" that can be faced.

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