Many properties in Beijing have seen overnight price increases!, "Phone exploded"

At 19:05 and 06:00 on September 1st, Zhou Feng received two phone calls from real estate agents, which was only about 10 minutes after Beijing issued the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy. Zhou Feng said, "After this policy is implemented, I have the qualification to purchase my first home, and they are urging me to buy it quickly."

In addition to the excitement of real estate agents, there are also some properties for sale in Beijing, and some projects have eagerly issued promotional posters saying "Don't close tonight". Zhongxin Jingwei learned that on the evening of the policy of "recognizing houses but not loans", both China Merchants and China Construction announced that they would reclaim discounts on their ongoing projects.

"We won't close tonight", multiple properties are taking back discounts and discounts

On August 20th, the brilliant AD project developed by China Merchants Shekou, located in Tongzhou District, Beijing, opened. Afterwards, the property announced to the public that its first day sales reached 1.56 billion yuan, breaking the record for the first sales amount of Tongzhou Sub center in the past two years.

On the 13th day of the brilliant opening of the market, Beijing officially announced the implementation of the "house recognition but not loan recognition" policy, which means that many homebuyers will change their eligibility for a second home to a first home, and the down payment ratio will be significantly reduced. That night, a bright red poster of the property saying "Don't close tonight" and "All available housing prices will increase by 2% tomorrow" spread in the WeChat group.

On the evening of September 1st, Zhongxin Jingwei called as a homebuyer to inquire about the property. A real estate consultant said, "After the policy was released, a few clients haven't left yet. Come and take a look, there are quite a few people looking at properties now, and there are not many good floors. As long as there are clients at night, the sales department won't close." When discussing the issue of raising prices by 2%, the real estate consultant evaded her words. After multiple inquiries, she said that there was a discount of 98% at the opening, which may need to be taken back now.

Xu Qing, another real estate consultant from Brilliant Century, confirmed over the phone that the property plans to recoup the discount. However, if she sincerely wants to buy or can pay a deposit of 100000 yuan, she can apply to the leadership to retain the discount. Booking a room for two days on the weekend, it shouldn't be a problem to keep the discount, but it's not easy to say next week.

At around 22:00 on the 1st, Xu Qing told China News Service that they were still receiving customers and asked the reporter if it was possible to transfer a deposit of 100000 yuan now. Zhongxin Jingwei found that the promotional poster of the property has removed the words "all available housing prices will be raised by 2% tomorrow".

▲ Promotion posters for the Brilliant AD Project in Shekou, China.

There are more than one real estate projects that have announced "no closing tonight" and "no closing for 72 hours". At around 20:30 on the 1st, real estate consultant Hu Ming posted a screenshot of the transaction of the Zhongjian · Jingxi Yinyue project in Fangshan District on his social media, stating that "customers transferred money overnight after the policy was implemented." Hu Ming told China News Service over the phone that after the policy was announced, the sales department's phone number was hit.

The three projects of Jingxi Yinyue, Guoxianfu, and Xuefu Yinyue developed by China Construction in Fangshan District are all sold in one location. Hu Ming said that the discount offered by Guoxian Mansion on August 31st was 97.5% off the total price of the house. On September 1st, it was changed to 99% off, and the discount for Xuefu Yinyue was changed from 96% off to 98% off, reducing the discount intensity.

A large real estate brokerage company located in Fangshan District stated that the company is a primary agent for some real estate projects. On the evening of the first day, they received a notice in their work group that some projects of China Construction and China Overseas have planned to recover some of the discount discounts. The practice of "recognizing a house but not a loan" has finally been implemented since February of this year, and it is estimated that there will be developers taking back the promotional activities in the future.

Within two hours of the policy release, the broker had received five proactive inquiries, saying, "Many customers were previously eligible for a second home, and their down payment was not enough. After the policy was released, they all came to inquire about loan eligibility and interest rates."

10 minutes to answer 2 phone calls, homebuyers remain calm

Zhou Feng has been looking at second-hand houses in Beijing for a long time, but has not taken any action. On the one hand, he believes that the real estate market in Beijing is relatively stable and there is no need to rush to buy. On the other hand, the down payment ratio for second home qualifications is too high.

After the implementation of "recognizing a house but not a loan", Zhou Feng regained the qualification for the first home. Within 10 minutes of the policy release, he received calls from two agents who had previously shown him a house, urging him to buy a house as soon as possible. Compared to the excitement of his agent, Zhou Feng remained calm. "Although the new policy can stimulate the market, it may not necessarily lead to a price increase. I will still take my time to see," he said

▲ Maitian Store in Guomao Business District, Chaoyang District, Beijing. Photo by Xue Yufei, Zhongxin Jingwei

On the 1st from 19:00 to 21:00, Zhongxin Jingwei visited three intermediary stores near the Guomao Business District in Chaoyang District. At the entrance of each intermediary store, reporters can see three or two agents dressed in formal attire talking on the phone, mainly discussing the content of house buying and selling. At the wheat field real estate store, two real estate agents are on the phone, and a young person with a child is consulting with the agent.

A male agent at the entrance said that he had already received some phone calls from clients that night inquiring about buying and selling houses. Most clients had a replacement demand and needed to sell their existing houses and then sell another one. He said that according to Beijing's previous policy, even if the existing housing is sold, due to a loan record, purchasing a second property is still qualified, and often requires a down payment of several million yuan, which many people cannot afford. According to the new policy, by selling the previous house, one can purchase a house with the qualification of the first home, which increases the demand for replacement.

Beijing Lianjia Research Institute estimates that the proportion of customers in demand for replacement or improvement in the second-hand housing market in Beijing is about 70%. This means that a considerable portion of the replacement population will be able to enjoy a low down payment ratio.

▲ Lianjia Store in Guomao Business District, Chaoyang District, Beijing. Photo by Xue Yufei, Zhongxin Jingwei

However, some real estate agents have remained calm. The above-mentioned agent of Maitian Real Estate believes that although the market has been looking forward to "recognizing houses but not loans" for a long time, the monthly transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing is about 10000 units, which is relatively cold in the market. After the new policy, it will drive an increase in transaction volume, but the price will not change too much. A broker at Lianjia store also said, "The current market is not in 2016, and it is unlikely to see a significant increase."

During a visit to an intermediary store, a male agent told his colleagues, "After this policy, prices should not increase." However, a female agent next to him said, "Why not? Many people can get on the car now."

The long-term trend of the rebound in trading volume remains to be observed

According to the official website of the Beijing Housing and Urban Rural Development Commission, 10960 second-hand houses were signed online in August, an increase of 12.8% month on month and a decrease of 21.3% year-on-year. In the eyes of some industry insiders, the monthly online signing of 12000 second-hand housing units is the "boom bust line" of the Beijing real estate market, and a price below 12000 units per month indicates a relatively cold market.

Regarding the impact of "recognizing a house but not a loan", Guo Yi, Chief Analyst of Heshuo Institution, analyzed China News Service, stating that this policy is significantly beneficial for families with improved housing demand and has also activated some homebuyers with a wait-and-see attitude to restart their home purchase plans. The "golden September and silver October" of Beijing's real estate market is worth looking forward to.

But Guo Yi also said that for families with improved housing needs, besides caring about the down payment ratio, the core issue is whether existing housing can be successfully sold at the expected price and time to meet the demand for purchasing new housing. The benefits of this policy for the population in urgent need of housing are relatively limited. In the context of a large number of second-hand housing listings and the focus on newly renovated products, relevant measures to benefit the population in urgent need of housing will still need to be introduced in the future to promote the flow of the second-hand housing market and form a virtuous cycle.

She judged that without follow-up measures, the popularity of the Beijing market may only last until the end of this year. She said, "The reason why housing prices in Beijing skyrocketed in 2016 was because there was limited supply of new houses at that time, and the market supply was biased towards' luxury housing '. At that time, market expectations were generally optimistic, and everyone wanted to buy houses quickly when policies were relaxed. However, currently there are too many houses in the Beijing market, with a large supply of new houses and price controls. Buyers can buy now or later, and the price difference will not be too large. Although some real estate projects may use this policy to recover some discounts, this can only affect those who already plan to buy houses, and will not cause too much stimulation to others."

Guo Yi stated that the current core issue is that the market's expectations for a sharp rise in housing prices are generally weak, and there is insufficient motivation to purchase real estate. "A more obvious change this year is that homebuyers will try to pay more down payments to reduce monthly supply pressure, rather than increasing leverage." Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, also predicts that the Beijing real estate market will experience a "golden nine silver ten" situation, and some regions may even see price increases. However, after October, the market may stabilize again after gradually digesting existing demand.

It is undeniable that the policy of "recognizing a house but not a loan" has attracted considerable attention in Beijing. On the evening of the 1st, China News Service concluded its visit to the International Trade Zone and spent several hours writing articles at a nearby caf é. Two groups of people were discussing the policy, and a woman said, "If we lower the down payment, we need to consider monthly payments."