"Longest serving Prime Minister" Hun Sen is about to leave: Will the strong end or will they continue to retreat? Time | Hun Sen | Prime Minister
On July 23rd, Cambodia held its seventh National Assembly elections. On the 25th, the spokesperson of the ruling People's Party, Soyasan, stated that the People's Party won a complete victory, winning 120 out of 125 seats in parliament. At 2pm on the 26th, Cambodian Prime Minister and Chairman of the Cambodian People's Party, Hun Sen, delivered a televised speech announcing to the world that he will step down as Prime Minister and officially resign on the 27th. The new government will be led by his eldest son, Hun Manai, and he hopes that Cambodian citizens can understand his decision.
As the longest serving Prime Minister in the world, Hun Sen, who has been in power in Cambodia for 38 years, announced his resignation at this moment and supported his son as the new government leader, which has attracted global public attention and criticism from Western countries. According to Agence France Presse on August 3rd, in response to criticism, Hun Sen said that handing over power to his son was a necessary move to "avoid bloodshed and conflict.".
In May before this year's general election, the Cambodian government temporarily changed the rules, stating that the Candlelight Party was disqualified from running due to the lack of a document that was not required in last year's local elections. After the People's Party achieved an absolute victory, Hun Sen revealed that he had requested King Sihamoni to appoint Hun Manai as the new Prime Minister on August 7th. The Prime Minister's confidence vote against Hun Manai will be held on August 22nd.
It is not yet known whether Hong Sen can "avoid bloodshed and conflict". Behind the inheritance of his father's legacy, the role and status of Hong Sen are even more concerning. "Even if Hun Sen steps down as the Prime Minister of Cambodia, he will still serve as the Chairman of the People's Party, which means he will continue to be active on the political stage. Hun Sen also made it clear that if Hun Manai fails to achieve his expected goals, he will return to serve as Prime Minister." Joyce Theodoro, Southeast Asia analyst at global risk management consulting firm Chem Insurance Group, told Paper.
It seems that Cambodia's "Hun Sen era" is yet to come to an end.
A strong man in troubled times
Hun Sen, who had just celebrated his 71st birthday, had been in power for 38 years. In 1985, at the age of only 32, Hun Sen served as the Prime Minister of the People's Republic of Cambodia for the first time, becoming the youngest head of government in the world at that time.
"Hun Sen was the first generation leader to emerge from the Cambodian Civil War, mainly responsible for completing the important task of peace and stability in Cambodia, and leading Cambodia gradually towards development." Zhou Shixin, Director of the Peripheral Diplomatic Office of the Foreign Policy Research Institute of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told Pengpai News.
Hun Sen's life can be regarded as a microcosm of Cambodia's modern and contemporary political history: he was young and poor, participated in the revolution, and made military achievements in the anti American struggle; He once joined the Khmer Rouge, but eventually defected and relied on the power of Vietnam to strengthen; Witnessing the withdrawal of Vietnamese troops and reaching the pinnacle of power, but also experiencing political crises and other interludes in 1997, ultimately achieving long-term governance. He implemented pragmatic economic policies, but was criticized for corruption and "iron fisted politics.".
On July 3, 1998 local time, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen received villagers in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
Biographical data shows that Hong Sen's ancestral home is Chaoshan, Guangdong. After his family moved to Southeast Asia, they settled and took root in Cambodia. In August 1952, Hun Sen was born into a poor farmer's family on the banks of the Mekong River in Cambodia. He worked in cotton fields at a young age. At the age of 13, he left his hometown and went to Phnom Penh to study alone. He stayed in a temple as a temple boy until he finished middle school. He once wrote in a poem "The Children of the Temple", "Ah, the temple is a holy land of Buddhism, where I draw spiritual nourishment. Don't envy the children of wealthy families, I will work hard to learn and enrich myself. The children of the temple will surely have a bright future."
In the 1960s and 1970s, the United States supported Ronaldo's coup. In 1970, at the age of 18, Hun Sen joined the Cambodian People's Revolutionary Army under the "Khmer Rouge" and served as company commander, battalion commander, and regimental commander in the Eastern Theater Command, achieving military achievements. In a battle with the US military in 1975, Hun Sen lost his left eye and continued to rely on a prosthetic eye.
After overthrowing the Ronno regime, the atmosphere of internal suppression within the Khmer Rouge caused concern for Hun Sen. In 1977, Hun Sen announced his departure from the "Khmer Rouge" and used the power of Vietnam to establish the "Cambodian National Unity and Salvation Front" with Han Sanglin and others. In January 1979, the Khmer Rouge regime was overthrown due to Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia, and Hun Sen gradually reached the pinnacle of power. Since 1979, he has held multiple important positions and participated in political negotiations to resolve the Cambodian issue. In 1985, Hun Sen became the Prime Minister, and four years later, Hun Sen witnessed the withdrawal of Vietnamese troops.
In 1993, under the auspices and supervision of the United Nations, Cambodia held its first national election, with the Fongsin Bik Party, chaired by King Sihanouk's son, Ranareg, becoming the largest party in parliament, and the People's Party of Hun Sen being the second largest party. In order to resolve the power struggle between the two parties and save the crisis of forming a government, according to the suggestion of King Sihanouk, Cambodia implemented a two prime minister system, with Ranareg as the first prime minister of the Kingdom of Cambodia and Hun Sen as the second prime minister. However, due to a strained relationship with Lana Lie, Hun Sen launched a violent action in 1997, and Lana Lie was dismissed from his position and forced to flee abroad. In 1998, Hun Sen was elected as the Prime Minister of Cambodia and has been re elected since then.
On July 10, 1997 local time, in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Hun Sen, then the second Prime Minister of Cambodia.
Reconstruction Leader
"During Hun Sen's tenure, he was known for being tough and bold, not succumbing to pressure, and maintaining pragmatic and flexible policies. He demonstrated strong autonomy and flexibility in dealing with opposition forces in Cambodian domestic politics and pressure from the United States in foreign relations." He Jiajie, Associate Researcher at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University, told The Paper.
In terms of economic policy, Hun Sen regards developing the economy and eliminating poverty as the top priority. In 1998, Hun Sen positioned the government as an "economic government". During his tenure, according to World Bank data, Cambodia's per capita GDP increased by more than seven times from $247.3 in 1993 to $1786.6 in 2022. In 2015, Cambodia jumped from a low-income country to a middle-income country, and Hun Sen believes that the country is expected to become a middle-income country by 2030.
In addition, Hun Sen and the People's Party maintain considerable attraction for the young generation in terms of education popularization and Internet development. Huang Yizhan, a consultant of the United Nations Information Technology Office, once wrote in the Lianhe Zaobao that in the 2022 election, many young people and intellectuals chose to vote for Hun Sen, which is a big contrast to outside expectations. Huang Yizhan believes that in addition to economic development, successful epidemic prevention and control measures are also important reasons.
On February 3, 2003, local time, in Kampot, Cambodia, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen delivered a speech at the Buddhist pagoda ceremony, which was welcomed by the public.
When the epidemic occurred, Cambodia achieved high vaccine coverage in the shortest possible time, leading Southeast Asia. Afterwards, border restrictions were lifted earlier, effectively reducing economic losses, especially compared to neighboring countries such as Thailand and Vietnam. For example, Thailand, which also heavily relies on tourism revenue, has seen its unemployment rate soar to double digits, while Cambodia is only two to three percentage points higher than before the pandemic. Furthermore, Cambodia's foreign direct investment during the pandemic increased by 11.4% against the trend last year.
These have given Hun Sen strong confidence and continued to suppress the opposition party. In 2017, the People's Party controlled parliament passed a law to dissolve any political party on security grounds. Then, he used his new power to dissolve the opposition party, the National Salvation Party, in the Supreme Court. About 100 members of the Salvation Party have been prosecuted, and several senior members of the party have gone into exile abroad. In 2018, after the dissolution of the main opposition coalition by the court, the Cambodian People's Party led by Hun Sen won all 125 seats in parliament.
On the international stage, Hun Sen has always been known for his tough style. Commenting on the internal affairs of neighboring countries, angrily criticizing Western interference, and vowing "iron fisted" politics... Hun Sen often appears in international news for his slightly outrageous remarks. According to Al Jazeera, in January of this year, Hun Sen rebuked some individuals who accused the People's Party of "stealing votes" during a live broadcast. He said, "Either you face legal action in court, or I convene a demonstration and beat you."
"He is not afraid to say 'extraordinary' words because Cambodia has not only achieved peace, but also achieved sustained and rapid economic growth, which has lifted millions of people out of poverty. Nearly two decades before the COVID-19, Cambodia's GDP had an average annual growth rate of nearly 8%, which is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. All these have made him win the support of the majority of the people in China, and he has the confidence to do so," said He Jiajie.
But this does not mean that the Hun Sen government is not under pressure. "In recent years, Hong Sen has been criticized and challenged by some opposition forces in China. Especially the younger generation is increasingly influenced by Western culture and political infiltration, which has strongly questioned long-term leaders. He himself also said that if he continues to serve, it will cause dissatisfaction." He Jiajie added.
Tiger father has no dog son?
Perhaps to appease domestic sentiment and avoid bloodshed, Hun Sen chose to step back from behind the scenes at this time and support his son to become the new generation leader of Cambodia. However, it is worth noting that Cambodia seems to have entered an era of regime change, and the "elders" of the Hun Sen cabinet have also successively introduced their second generation successors.
Hong Manai, who is 45 years old this year, has a Western education background. He entered the United States Military Academy at West Point in 1995, and after graduation, he transferred to New York University to obtain a master's degree in economics, and then obtained a doctoral degree in economics from the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom. He has also visited Western countries such as the United States multiple times to promote defense cooperation between Cambodia and related countries.
Hong Manai
The Khmer Times referred to Hung Mane as a "transformational leader". "As the youngest leader of Southeast Asia, Hong Manai can be said to have learned from both the East and the West, and has a clearer and more profound understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of the political systems of the East and the West than others." Zhou Shixin said that compared to Hong Sen, who carried historical burdens, "Hong Manai had fewer ideological constraints during his tenure, and would have stronger initiative and enthusiasm. He also had more confidence in promoting Cambodia's development and prosperity, and was more pragmatic and forward-looking in promoting various policy work. He was willing to invest more resources and energy into the goals he had decided on.".
But as a son inherits his father's business, Hong Manai's policies will not deviate too much from Hong Sen. Hong Manai has repeatedly stated that his domestic and foreign policies will be a continuation of his father. Joyce Theodoro analyzed, "It is unlikely that Hun Manet will undergo significant political reforms and will continue the path set by Hun Sen. Considering Hun Manet's Western educational background, it is worth noting whether he will adopt more subtle foreign policies in the future to maximize his own interests. In addition, Hun Manet needs to find ways to satisfy the younger generation's desire for economic opportunities and other benefits."
Compared to emerging political figures from other Southeast Asian countries, Hong Manai's political philosophy is more old-fashioned and closer to monarchy, Buddhism, and the military. Pushing Hong Manai to the front and back of the stage, Hong Sen still "retreated". He said that after the new batch of successors take office, "the elders of the People's Party will be by their side to guide.". He Jiajie analyzed that the reason why Hong Sen emphasized that he would not completely withdraw from politics may be related to Hong Manai's shallow qualifications and the need for support. "Hun Sen may also hope that his own behind the scenes control can ensure that the new government will not deviate from the country's established development path, thereby maintaining policy stability. If Hun Sen immediately withdraws from the Cambodian political arena, different political views and opposition forces in Cambodia may launch a challenge against the government, and the country's policy direction may change, causing instability," said He Jiajie.
The article by Diplomat states that the potential challenges faced by Hun Sen and Hun Manet in the transfer of power do not come from outside the party, but from within the leadership collective. At present, other members of the Hun Sen cabinet are older. The current Minister of Defense, Deban, is 77 years old, Foreign Minister Blasokun is 69 years old, Minister of Land and Construction, Chesapala, who is in charge of construction, is 70 years old, and Minister of Commerce, Pansorasak, is 68 years old. According to the Cambodian China Times, Hun Sen stated that the aforementioned cabinet members will step down together with him. The Khmer Times hinted that "up to two-thirds of the incoming ministers will be second-generation leaders."
It is speculated by the outside world that the successors of these "elderly people" from the Hunsen era may appear on Hunmanet's list of cabinet members as trainees. An editorial in the Khmer Times pointed out that the People's Party is currently transitioning from a generation of leaders in their sixties and seventies to a generation of young people in their thirties and forties under the leadership of Hung Mane, but this has somewhat overlooked the generation in their forties and fifties. The Khmer Times stated that only after the younger generation demonstrated sufficient abilities, "the older generation can confidently hand over the fate of the country to the younger generation.". However, Hun Sen still holds the position of party chairman and bluntly stated, "If my son fails to achieve his expected goals, I will take on the role of prime minister again.".
"Hong Manai needs to make more efforts to replace Hun Sen in the party in order to reassure the leaders of the Hun Sen generation... It can be said that Hong Manai's desire and possibility of trying to replace Hun Sen as the chairman of the Cambodian People's Party are still low for at least the first term. Cambodia will gradually see a situation of mutual support and support between the ruling party and the government, promoting a smoother and more stable political transformation in Cambodia." Zhou Shixin told Paper.
The upcoming government of Hongmanai will face many difficulties. On August 3rd, Diplomat reported that Cambodia needs to maintain diplomatic balance and cope with political conflict pressure. More importantly, in recent years, Cambodia has been deeply embroiled in scandals of "fraud parks", human trafficking, employment fraud, and cross-border fraud, with numerous sensational reports that have affected the reputation of Cambodia's tourism and investment. The US State Department's ranking of Cambodia's "Human Trafficking Index" as the third most severe level in 2022 and 2023 has caused strong dissatisfaction from the Cambodian government.
"Considering that the tourism industry is an important source of fiscal revenue and local employment in Cambodia, the new government led by Hung Manai may continue to be committed to combating crime, including cooperation with foreign governments when necessary, strengthening training, etc., to ensure that the country continues the good momentum brought about by the country's departure from the anti money laundering" gray list "of the Financial Action Task Force earlier this year." Joyce Theodoro said.
