Jin Yinan: Your statement is very cunning!, Biden calls Ukraine's entry into the treaty a "backdoor" for Zelensky | NATO | Ukraine
In recent times, Ukraine has launched large-scale counterattacks on multiple fronts. In addition to continuing to call on the West to increase military support, Ukrainian President Zelensky has once again expressed his urgent desire to join NATO. However, US President Biden announced on June 17th that there will be no "special arrangements" for Ukraine's accession to NATO. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg subsequently stated that Ukraine will not be invited to join NATO at the Vilnius NATO summit to be held in mid July. So, is there still a chance for Ukraine to enter the treaty in the future? Stay tuned for the Southern Military Forum on National Defense Time and Space.
Li Yue:
Last Wednesday, Ukrainian President Zelensky reiterated his desire to quickly join NATO during a telephone consultation with Polish President Duda; Igor Rovkova, Deputy Director of the Office of the President of Ukraine, recently issued a statement stating that out of the 31 NATO member states, 20 have supported Ukraine's accession to NATO; At the NATO Defense Ministers' Meeting held on June 15th, some NATO member countries in Central and Eastern Europe expressed their hope to provide Ukraine with a clear roadmap for accession at the NATO summit in July. On the issue of Ukraine's accession to the treaty, the attitude of the United States, as the leading force of NATO, can be said to be crucial. On the 17th, US President Biden stated in an interview that Ukraine must meet the same standards as other transatlantic alliance countries in order to join NATO, which undoubtedly poured cold water on Ukraine's eager desire to join the treaty. Professor Yinan, why are there differences within NATO regarding Ukraine's accession to the treaty?
Jin Yinan: Can Ukraine join NATO? When will we join NATO? There are indeed differences within NATO regarding these issues, and the attitudes of member countries in Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and Western Europe are clearly different. Why is this happening? Because all parties are considering their own interests.
For example, NATO member countries located in Eastern Europe are mostly NATO's "beneficiary countries". They can use NATO funds and weapons to arm themselves, enjoy the collective defense mechanism and security guarantees of NATO member countries, and are beneficiaries in NATO. The Western European member countries in NATO are different, especially Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, as well as the United States, which constitute the backbone of NATO. From recent reports, we can see that member countries such as Germany, France, the UK, and the US have not expressed clear or positive views on whether to accept Ukraine's accession to NATO. Because they are the initiators, leaders, and core members of NATO, they need to bear more responsibility. For example, who will invest more funds to support Ukraine, or who will be at the forefront of participating in wars with Russia in possible future conflicts? This is a question they need to think carefully about. So on the issue of whether Ukraine can join NATO, the attitudes of the Eastern European and Western European members of NATO are clearly different. As you can see, among the Eastern European member states, Poland and the Baltic States have the most positive attitude. They are very willing to NATO's eastward expansion and let Ukraine join as soon as possible. In this way, Ukraine can become a buffer zone for conflicts between Eastern European countries and Russia. But in the end, the situation became uncontrollable, and the responsibility and cost of NATO's eastward expansion ultimately had to be borne by countries such as Germany, France, Britain, and the United States, so this is a huge contradiction.
US President Biden recently stated that there will be no "special arrangements" for Ukraine's accession to NATO and that there will be no "shortcut" for Ukraine's accession to NATO. A key condition for Ukraine to join NATO is that the country applying for membership cannot have territorial disputes or bring new wars and conflicts to NATO. Now the United States, Germany, France and Britain are very clear that Ukraine cannot completely drive Russia out of its territory, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is bound to be a protracted affair. So US President Biden is very cunning. He said that if Ukraine wants to join NATO, it must meet all the conditions, which indirectly indicates that Ukraine is currently unable to join NATO. In fact, the leading forces of NATO such as the United States, Britain, Germany, and France are not unwilling to accept Ukraine, but rather unwilling to accept the existing risks, especially the significant risks that NATO cannot bear.
Li Yue:
Based on the currently released information, Ukraine's accession to the Treaty will not be a topic of discussion at the Vilnius summit. However, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg has previously stated that he believes that the day when Ukraine joins NATO will eventually come, and NATO leaders will discuss how to bring Ukraine closer to NATO at the summit. And it seems to be a reassurance for Zelensky, and Stoltenberg also stated that NATO is working hard to establish a new organization: the NATO Ukraine Council. Professor Ichinan, since NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine's accession to the treaty, it is constantly "drawing pie", making Ukraine feel infinitely close to joining NATO. What is the true purpose of NATO?
Jin Yinan: Now that the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached the current stage, the US and Western countries must draw a cake big enough for Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from not working hard on the battlefield and sitting on the negotiation table with Russia.
Even if NATO does not currently accept this huge "risk", it still needs a "buffer zone" that consumes Russia. This "buffer zone" is Ukraine. At present, although Ukraine has not joined NATO, it has caused huge consumption to Russia. If we want this consumption to continue, we need to meet some of the conditions proposed by Ukraine. We need to paint a pie for Ukraine, give Zelensky encouragement, and not let them lose their desire to join NATO. So, Stoltenberg said that we need to establish a NATO Ukraine Council, which can also enjoy "quasi NATO" treatment even if Ukraine has not joined NATO. But as for what NATO can provide to Ukraine, it is up to NATO to discuss and decide, and no promises can be made now.
In addition, there is one more point, which is that Stoltenberg is about to step down in October this year. After making promises to Ukraine, there is still uncertainty about whether he can fulfill them in the future. However, Stoltenberg will definitely want to make this matter as successful as possible during his term, and give Ukraine hope by slowly adapting and adjusting. And Stoltenberg also hopes to eliminate internal disagreements within NATO through this approach. At present, NATO must unite internally. Because from the development process of NATO, without war, there would be no NATO. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, former US President Trump said that NATO was "an outdated dinosaur" and should be dissolved. French President Macron has also said before that NATO has "brain dead". After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the "dinosaur" recovered after drinking blood. NATO is now very active, and its bloodthirsty nature has brought endless wars to the world.
Li Yue:
At present, the Russia-Ukraine conflict still does not see the dawn of peace talks, but the spillover effect of the continued military confrontation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has gradually emerged. Recently, Russia's first batch of tactical nuclear warheads have been delivered to Belarus, and Ukraine has recently deployed a military force on the border with Belarus; In addition, the only remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia is in a suspended state, causing widespread concern in Europe about the escalating nuclear risks. Some netizens even said that if NATO did not stop and continue to stir up trouble, the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict would sooner or later spread to Europe and eventually infringe on NATO's own interests. Professor Yinan, how do you analyze this?
Jin Yinan: What is the ultimate way out for NATO? I believe that NATO will eventually disappear in infinite expansion. NATO, like animals, has no food if they don't kill or compete; NATO has no value in existence if it is bloodthirsty and does not provoke war. Now Finland has joined NATO, Sweden's accession is only a matter of time, and South Korea and Japan are also eager to close relations with NATO. However, like dinosaurs, as their bodies grow larger, they will perish due to climate change, food shortages, and inability to adapt to their living environment. In the future, NATO will eventually decline during its expansion process, and now this symptom has emerged. Now NATO has also recognized this issue and is taking measures to prevent it. For example, on the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO, it has maintained some clarity, which indicates that NATO does not want to perish in expansion, which we can clearly see.
