Jin Yinan: Relying on "buy buy buy" will always be subject to others, India and the United States sign a series of defense agreements Military | Modi | Agreement
At the invitation of US President Biden, Indian Prime Minister Modi recently made a three-day state visit to the United States. During the visit, the two countries signed a series of defense agreements to advance their military relations. At a joint press conference after the meeting, the leaders of the two countries stated that the partnership between the United States and India is "stronger, closer, and more dynamic than ever before in history.". The American media also actively campaigned, claiming that Modi's visit to the United States is a milestone and an important turning point in the relationship between India and the United States. So, has the current US India relationship really ushered in the "turning point" that the US is looking forward to? Will India abandon a balanced diplomatic war and form an alliance with the United States in the future? Stay tuned for the Southern Military Forum on National Defense Time and Space.
Li Yue:
Some comments suggest that Modi's visit to the United States has been fruitful, with the biggest highlight being the deepening of defense industry cooperation between the United States and India, and the sharing of high-tech equipment and technology. According to a joint statement released after the meeting between Biden and Modi, India plans to spend $3 billion to purchase 31 MQ-9B Sea Guard drones, and the United States will approve General Electric's production of domestically produced fighter jet engines in India. In addition, US Navy vessels are allowed to undergo major repairs at Indian shipyards. We know that India is one of the world's largest importers of weapons and equipment, and has long relied on importing weapons and equipment to develop its military strength. After the Modi administration came to power, it was committed to changing this situation. He regarded the autonomy of military equipment and the "Made in India" of weapons and equipment as the ultimate goal of the development of the defense industry. However, Modi's visit to the United States this time is still "buy buy buy buy". In the words of netizens, "The so-called autonomy of military equipment was originally purchased at a high price.". Professor Yinan, how much improvement can these collaborative projects bring to India's military strength? Over time, won't India still have to be controlled by others?
Jin Yinan: I believe that the introduction of American equipment and technology by India will help improve the combat effectiveness of the Indian army in the short term. For example, the problem of India lacking fighter jet engines has not been solved for a long time. Although Russia has provided some to India before, the quantity is limited and cannot fully meet India's needs. During Modi's visit to the United States, the United States agreed to provide India with some less advanced fighter jet technology, which could indeed bring India's fighter jet development work to a new stage. But I believe that relying on the introduction of foreign equipment and technology to develop one's own military power is like smoking opium, which can only provide short-term pleasure but can bring long-term harm. Because it is easy for others to get stuck in technology, once a country that has been introduced technology upgrades, or if the relationship between the two countries breaks down, or if there is a conflict between the two countries, it will be controlled by others. So, relying on purchasing military equipment to enhance military strength, after taking too much of this medicine, is actually drinking poison to quench thirst.
For a long time, India has rarely developed itself through self-reliance and striving for self-improvement. It always wants to leverage the power of the Soviet Union in the past, and now it wants to leverage the power of the United States to achieve its own rise. India has indeed gained some advantages in this area now, but it will suffer significant losses in the future.
On June 22nd local time, US President Biden held a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Modi
Li Yue:
Recently, the United States has increased its efforts to woo India. Prior to Modi's visit to the United States, US Secretary of Defense Austin and Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Sullivan visited India and engaged in a series of intensive high-level contacts. Modi's visit to the United States was received with the highest level of hospitality from the US side, and he was invited to give a speech in the US Congress. The scale of the battle was truly greater than before, so he was praised by the media as a substantial leap in India US relations. However, despite being referred to by the United States as "one of the world's closest partners," India has recently explicitly rejected the US invitation to join NATO+. Indian Foreign Minister Su Jiesheng stated that this alliance model is "not suitable for India.". Professor Yi Nan, India seems to have always been good at walking the tightrope between major powers. Why does the United States still strive to win over such a country that is swaying from side to side?
Jin Yinan: This time, the atmosphere of Modi's visit to the United States has been very lively, and both sides have reached multiple transactions in the military and high-tech fields. What are the commonalities of these transactions that we can discover? This time, the United States has promised to provide India with the most advanced technology, including chips, aircraft engines, drones, and so on, for any technology that the United States has blocked from China.
There is also a very subtle point that the leaders of the United States and India hardly mentioned China during the meeting. But discerning people know that the biggest factor behind the hot US India relationship is China. The United States is making every effort to woo India, on the one hand, to use India as a "gun" against China, and on the other hand, it also has the intention of "distancing" India Russia relations. As is well known, the relationship between India and Russia is very close, not only in military trade, but also in politics and economy. Therefore, the United States has promised India many "benefits", which are bait. From the current perspective, Modi did indeed bite the bait. Whether he will take the bait in the future still needs further observation.
Li Yue:
Yes, although both the United States and India have highly praised the achievements and significance of this visit, the public opinion is generally not optimistic about the prospects of military relations between the United States and India. Even American media have stated in relevant reports that the friendship that the two countries are striving to demonstrate is only one side of the coin. Some netizens also believe that the United States has overestimated India's role in the US Indo Pacific strategy and underestimated India's strategic autonomy, and India will not be willing to serve as a strategic tool for the United States. Professor Yinan, as the military relationship between the United States and India continues to strengthen, do you think the United States and India will gradually develop into a military alliance country?
Jin Yinan: From the current situation analysis, the possibility of the United States and India upgrading to a military alliance is not high, because there is still greater temptation for India. In the past, non aligned countries were referred to as developing countries, and India was considered one of the leaders of non aligned countries. Today, a new concept has emerged internationally, which refers to developing countries as "southern countries". And India has always wanted to be the leader of "southern countries". In this Russia-Ukraine conflict, the "southern countries" all showed indifference, including Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, and even some countries in the Middle East and Africa. They were generally disgusted with the hegemony of the United States and the West and the international order dominated by the United States and the West. So, I judge that India is unwilling to risk losing its leadership position as a "southern country" for the sake of a military alliance treaty.
Of course, Modi delivered a speech in the US Congress this time, mainly stating that in a few years, India will become the third largest country in the world economy, only behind the United States and China. At that time, the US Congress applauded him warmly, why? Because even if India becomes the world's third-largest economy, it cannot pose a threat to the United States. Let's imagine that if one day India's economic output ranks second in the world, the United States will definitely turn around and deal with it. India is also very clear about its positioning. It will take a very long historical period to become the world's third largest economy, and even longer to become the world's second largest economy. During these two stages, he has great room for development and needs to fully utilize American technology and resources to achieve his growth.
So, from independence to today, India's independence has been greatly compromised. Before praising the United States, he relied on the Soviet Union for a long time. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, he also relied on Russia. Now, he is on two different paths between the United States and Russia. In the future, India may gradually shift its focus to the ship of the United States, but it will not completely withdraw from Russia because this will have a significant impact on it and reduce its influence in the "southern countries". And this cost is too high for India, so India won't do it.
