It's not easy!, The Top Ten Mysteries Behind the Scenes: Prigoren's Flight Crash
On the evening of August 23rd local time, a private plane carrying 10 people crashed in the state of Rostyville, Russia.
It is reported that the founder of the Russian private military entity Wagner Group, Prigoren, was on this plane. The news says that the controversial figure who attracted a lot of attention due to launching a "rebellion" two months ago has died.
This accident has made the already complex situation even more perplexing. Behind the fog, ten key issues gradually emerge. China News Network invites Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, to interpret this.
Mystery One:
What happened when the plane crashed?
On the evening of the 23rd local time, an Embraer-135 private plane flew from Moscow to St. Petersburg, carrying a total of 10 people, including 3 crew members. TASS quoted the Federal Air Transport Agency of Russia as reporting that the passenger list on board included a passenger named Yevgeny Prigoren.
About 15 minutes after takeoff, the plane lost its signal on radar near the Bologovsky district of Tver state.
On August 23, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations announced through social media that an Embraer-135 private plane flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg crashed in the Tver Oblast that evening.
According to the Associated Press, a video shared by the "Telegraph" social channel "Grey Zone" near Wagner showed a plane plummeting almost vertically like a large rock from a large cloud of smoke. The frame by frame analysis of the video shows that the plane exploded in the air, and the falling plane seems to lack wings.
Sources from the Federal Air Transport Agency Committee of the Russian Federation revealed that the plane was "bombed". Witnesses have reported that there were two explosions before the plane crashed. Russian media also pointed out that there were multiple suspected bullet holes in the wreckage of the plane crash at the scene, which may be related to anti-aircraft missiles, but the image quality is low and the nature of the traces cannot be accurately determined.
Mystery 2:
Might Prigoren still be alive?
Preliminary information shows that all personnel on board have died.
Wagner Group also confirmed that Prigoren had died in the plane crash. "The gray zone posted, 'Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigo, the leader of the Wagner Group, a Russian hero, and the true patriot of our country, died in the act of a' Russian traitor '. But even in hell, he will be the best! Glory belongs to Russia!'"
On the 24th local time, someone went to Wagner Building to lay flowers. In addition, Russian media reported that search and rescue personnel had found Prigoren's phone at the scene. However, the body at the scene has not yet been identified and DNA testing is required.
However, some sources also suggest that Prigoren may not be on the plane, and his true fate is still unknown.
Mystery Three:
Another private plane from Prigoren landed?
According to Russian media reports, after the crash, the second private plane belonging to Prigoren immediately changed course, returned, and landed at Ostavyevo Airport near Moscow.
The report stated that there was "abnormal activity" near Ostavyevo Airport. Local residents said, "Six planes have arrived within half an hour, and never before have so many planes appeared at the same time."
Sources believe that Prigoren may have been on the second plane, as he "often confuses everyone's senses" and his name may have been registered on the list of this plane, but he was actually flying on another plane.
In November 2019, an An-72 military transport plane crashed in Africa. At the time, there were reports that Prigoren had "died" in the accident, but a few days later, it was discovered that Prigoren was still alive. Russian political analyst Yekaterina Schulman said, "In order to hide forever, burning a plane with one of the many spare passports is also a suitable excuse."
Mystery Four:
Who else were on the plane involved in the accident?
According to the list of crash victims released by the Federal Air Transport Administration of Russia, among the 10 victims, 3 were crew members and 7 were senior officials of the Wagner Group, including another founder of the Wagner Group, Utkin, and senior assistant Valery Chekalov from Prigo.
In the eyes of the outside world, Prigoren is the controller of Wagner Group. But in fact, Utkin is the "soul figure" among them, and he was once referred to as the "actual leader of the Wagner Mercenary Corps" by the European Union.
The image is from Utkin, one of the founders of Wagner Group. According to Russian media reports, Utkin was born on June 11, 1970 in Kirovohrad Oblast, Ukraine. In the 1980s, Utkin entered the Russian Military Intelligence Agency after graduating from military academy and participated in the Chechen War twice. Around 2012, Utkin retired and joined the Slavic Legion, having engaged in fierce battles with extremist organizations such as the Islamic State in Syria. In May 2014, Utkin began to work independently and founded the Wagner Group under the name of his call sign "Wagner" in the Gruu army.
It is said that Utkin himself is very low-key and has only been exposed a few times. Professor Dani Bellow from the Norman Patterson School of International Affairs at Carlton University once pointed out, "He is the man who really got Wagner running behind the scenes. Prigorn cannot provide practical combat and tactical aspects."
Mystery 5:
Who is the real culprit behind the scenes?
So who is the real culprit of this plane crash? The situation is once again trapped in the Rashomon mystery.
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed that firstly, some media speculated that after the Wagner rebellion, Prigoren became a "hot potato" and continued to stay in Russia, posing a threat to the security of the regime. Punishing Prigoren is suspected of persecuting "Russian national heroes". The brief exile of Wagner Group soldiers to Belarus has led to a sharp increase in security pressure in Poland and Lithuania, prompting them to expand their troops and prepare for war, which is not conducive to regional stability.
Secondly, the suspicion of Ukraine or the West cannot be ruled out. The Wagner Group is engaged in fierce fighting in the Bakhmut region, and the Ukrainian authorities have long issued a wanted order for them. Therefore, this plane crash may be due to Western countries and Ukraine using special operations methods to carry out physical annihilation.
In addition, the "gray zone" claims that Prigoren and others were killed by "Russian traitors". Zhang Hong believes that "traitors" may refer to internal personnel within Russia, not the West or Ukraine, and may even be members of the Wagner Group.
Mystery Six:
Why is the timing of a plane crash so subtle?
It is worth noting that the second day of the plane crash, August 24th, is Ukraine Independence Day.
Previously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces Command released an animated video on social media, which seemed to warn that multiple cities in Russia were about to be attacked, including the capital Moscow, and predicted that this would happen on August 24th.
"The killing of Wagner's founder Prigoren and Utkin is undoubtedly a terrorist attack on Russia before Ukraine's Independence Day. All Russian enemies are delighted today. Prigoren's killing is Ukraine's main achievement this year," said Russian political scientist Sergei Markov.
At the same time, Ukrainian political scientist Yuri Romanenko said after the plane crash, "Glory belongs to Ukrainian drones!"
But Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on the 24th, "We have nothing to do with this matter, everyone knows who did it."
Mystery Seven:
Why did the Wagner army stationed in Belarus retreat?
According to media reports, after the crash, a Russian Ministry of Defense Il-76 aircraft quickly arrived in Belarus and began to withdraw Wagner soldiers to Russia.
Zhang Hong believes that "if the Russian government were to mobilize the Wagner troops, it would indicate that the Russian government is controlling the risks. After high-level commanders such as Prigorn 'disappear', it is necessary to avoid the troops losing control. Another possibility is that the Wagner troops will leave Belarus on their own and head to Russia."
Regardless of the actual reasons, analysts believe that this military retreat may to some extent mean that Wagner's role in international activities may be affected.
Mystery 8:
Where does Wagner's future lie?
Two months ago, Prigoren still had 50000 troops, but recently, the situation around him has become tense.
According to Russian media reports, some former executives of Wagner Group are "luring former colleagues to switch jobs to other companies.". There are reports that the UK plans to recognize the Wagner Group as a terrorist organization in the coming weeks.
In addition, the Russian authorities temporarily suspended funding for Wagner.
Although Russian President Putin stated in an interview on July 14th that Russia may grant legal status to the Wagner Group, he proposed many options, one of which was to hope that a person named "White Hair" would replace Prigo as the leader of Wagner.
"White Hair" is the pseudonym for former retired Russian Colonel Troshev and one of the co founders of the Wagner Group, serving as the highest commander. Over the past year and a half, Wagner's military operations in Ukraine have been commanded by Troshev.
Various signs indicate that Wagner Group may face internal and external troubles in the future.
Mystery Nine:
Why is the US President "not surprised"?
On the 24th, when it comes to the plane crash, President Biden's first reaction was intriguing. He said in an interview, "I don't know what exactly happened, but I'm not surprised."
Previously, when Wagner's "rebellion" failed, Biden bluntly stated, "We haven't seen the final scene yet."
Biden also hinted at paying attention to Prigoren's security issues, saying, "There are not many things that happen in Russia that Putin is not behind the scenes, but I don't understand enough and don't know the answer."
Zhang Hong pointed out that the reaction of the US President once again demonstrates that, at least without understanding the cause of this sudden incident, the US government still mechanically points suspicion towards the Putin regime.
Mystery 10:
What are the impacts on the Ukrainian crisis and other aspects?
Will the news of Prigoren's possible plane crash and death affect Russia's internal military morale and morale?
Zhang Hong believes that this plane crash will not bring pressure to Russia's internal affairs, and the Russian government will conduct an investigation. He also stated that this matter may have an impact on the Ukrainian crisis, and the mastermind of the plane crash may point to Ukraine or the West, but Ukraine may not necessarily claim it. Therefore, the outcome could make the situation more complex or trigger retaliation from Russia.
It is worth noting that the Wagner Group has significant influence in multiple countries in Africa, including Libya, Mali, and Burkina Faso. On August 21st, Wagner Group released a video suspected of being filmed in Africa. Prigoren appeared in the video and stated that the Wagner Group is conducting reconnaissance and search activities in Africa, in order for Russia to become stronger on all continents and make Africa more free.
Since the coup in Niger at the end of July, public opinion has generally believed that Niger will become another country that opens its doors to Wagner. Analysis suggests that if Prigoren really dies, it may affect Wagner Group's activities in Africa and the Middle East.
