Is it effective? A "birth promotion" practice in a small western county: giving birth to two or three children, buying a house, giving birth to "bedrooms" | support | bedrooms

Linze County, Zhangye City, Gansu Province, launched a series of birth support policies early after the implementation of the three child policy in 2021, including cash subsidies and housing purchase subsidies. In December of the same year, the research team of the China Population and Development Research Center conducted a survey in Linze County, and the relevant research report was recently published in the journal Population and Health.

Is real gold and silver effective in encouraging fertility? During the research, the research team noticed that some policies have achieved effectiveness in terms of guidance. For example, in the two months after the policy was introduced, the number of births in the county people's hospital has exceeded the total of the nine months before the policy was introduced.

But there are also some issues that need to be addressed, such as the lack of effective incentives for the most promising one child to have a child through childbirth subsidies; Some policies are "good but not good", and no one has applied for a housing reward of up to 40000 yuan during the research period.

Analysis of negative growth: Nine out of ten people are experiencing population outflow, with low fertility accounting for only one of them

Linze County is located in the central part of the Hexi Corridor and is a typical western outflow type area with negative population growth.

This report points out that due to the population siphon effect caused by the loose household registration policies in economically developed areas, especially in large cities, there is a significant outflow of population in Linze County, which has become the main cause of negative population growth in Linze County. The seventh national census data shows that the permanent population of Linze County is 115900, a decrease of 18400 from 134300 in the sixth national census in 2010. Due to the high rate of college entrance in Linze County, a large number of young college students emigrated, coupled with marriage emigration, resulting in a downward trend in both the registered residence population and the permanent population of Linze County. From December 1, 2020 to November 30, 2021, 3751 people moved in and 4263 people moved out of the county, with a population of 512 more than the incoming population.

Meanwhile, Linze County is facing a serious problem of low fertility levels. The seventh national census data shows that the crude birth rate in Linze County in 2020 was 6.5 ‰, slightly lower than the national crude birth rate of 8.52 ‰ during the same period, with a natural growth rate of 2.01 ‰, slightly higher than the national natural growth rate of 1.45 ‰. This is mainly because the crude mortality rate in Linze County is significantly lower than the national average.

The authors of the article, He Dan, Yuan Tao, and Huang Kuangshi, analyzed in their report that Linze County is facing dual pressures of population outflow and low fertility rate, with 10% being a low fertility rate factor and 90% being a net population outflow factor. Therefore, the key factor restricting the population development of Linze County is the outflow of population. Of course, as the aging population becomes increasingly severe, the crude mortality rate will gradually increase, and the natural population growth rate will shift to negative growth. In addition, the increasingly prominent net population outflow will exacerbate the negative population growth.

In September 2021, Linze launched a series of measures to encourage childbirth. For example, one child aged 0-3 can receive a one-time childbirth subsidy of 2000 yuan, two children aged 0-3 can receive a total subsidy of 18000 yuan, and three children aged 0-3 can receive a total subsidy of 35000 yuan. In addition, Linze County stipulates that permanent families with registered residence of Linze who have two or three children will be given a government subsidy of 40000 yuan when purchasing commercial housing in the urban area of Linze County, and 30000 yuan when purchasing commercial housing in central market towns, Tunquan Town, Danxia Health Village and other concentrated residential areas.

Referring to the housing prices in Linze County at that time, the above measures were also described as government subsidies for one bedroom.

Why approach from the perspective of housing and other aspects? The relevant person in charge of the Health Bureau of Linze County explained in 2021 that through analysis, it was found that the main factors affecting the willingness of the public to have children are high housing pressure, high investment in education, and high economic pressure for couples born in the 1980s and 1990s who have no one to take care of their children during the period of 0-3 years old.

The research group of the China Population and Development Research Center believes in the report that the optimized birth policy of the Linze County Party Committee and County Government has effectively reduced the burden of raising children in families with multiple children, enhanced the sense of gain among the masses, and received praise from society and local people. The research team in Linze County found that the guidance of some policies has already played a role, such as a significant increase in the number of people returning to Linze County People's Hospital for childbirth after the policy was introduced. The total number of births in the county people's hospital in the two months after the policy was introduced has exceeded the total of the nine months before the policy was introduced. However, most of these births are only changes in the place of delivery, rather than new births due to policies. Whether policies bring about new births still needs to be continuously observed.

Pengpai News noticed that in 2018, the total birth population of Linze County was 1497, with a birth rate of 9.98 ‰; In 2021, the total number of births was 817, and the birth rate dropped to 5.41 ‰. In 2022, after the introduction of the aforementioned fertility support measures, the birth rate in Linze stopped falling and rebounded to 5.63 ‰ with a population of 844.

From October 1, 2022 to April 30, 2023, the Linze County Health Bureau reviewed a maternity allowance of 708000 yuan for 240 postpartum women who gave birth in public medical institutions in the county; For 174 families who have given birth to a second or third child in public medical institutions in the county, a parenting subsidy of 1.005 million yuan will be reviewed and approved; For 173 families with two or three children, a second year parenting subsidy of 955000 yuan was reviewed, and a total of 2.668 million yuan was pre allocated for various eugenics and childcare policies.

Realistic issue: Why are there no applicants for housing rewards

This report also points out that there are still many issues worth paying attention to in the birth support policy of Linze County.

Firstly, its policy coverage is broad but lacks specificity, and the effectiveness of promoting moderate fertility levels remains to be observed.

The report mentions that Linze County ranks among the top in terms of per capita disposable income in the province, with lower living costs. The main reason for the negative population growth is the change in the fertility concept of young people going out during the rapid urbanization process. However, there are no targeted policies in the local area to guide young people's marriage and childbirth concepts and attract and retain migrant populations. The subsidy for childbearing and nurturing this time mainly reduces the burden of childbearing and nurturing education on existing families with multiple children by implementing the policy of incentivizing children in reverse order, while lacking effective incentives for the most promising one child childbirth. The average proportion of first child births in Linze County in the past three years is only 39.67%, the average proportion of second children is 52.4%, and the average proportion of third children is 7.93%. There are also some policies that are "good but not good", such as housing incentive policies for second and third children. Due to many young couples already purchasing commercial housing when getting married and having a first child, they rarely purchase new houses when having a second and third child, resulting in the embarrassment of no one applying for housing incentives for second and third children.

Secondly, the sustainability of fiscal investment deserves attention. After rough calculation by the research group, under the current subsidy policy, the cost of childbirth, childcare, kindergarten, and other expenses for children basically do not need to be borne by families. However, the high welfare childbirth support policy will bring significant financial pressure to Linze County. According to the estimation of the Linze County Government, a total of 105 million yuan is required during the 5-year policy implementation period, with an average annual payment of 21.02 million yuan. For Linze County, which has an annual increase in fiscal revenue of only 10 million yuan, the financial pressure is very high. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, it is necessary to allocate about 20 million yuan of fiscal revenue each year to support the optimization of the birth policy.

The survey also found that Linze County is a major agricultural county, and the demand for childcare institutions is very high during the busy farming season. According to childcare institutions, during the peak summer season, 200-300 infants and young children are received every day, while during the winter leisure period, fewer infants and young children are received every day. Therefore, there is a problem of overcrowding during busy summer hours and idle resources during idle winter hours; The demand for preschool children in the entire county is concentrated in urban areas, resulting in excess and waste of childcare space in urban and rural areas respectively. The demand for accommodations and degrees has obvious regional and seasonal imbalances.

Based on the population situation, influencing factors of negative population growth, and fiscal situation in different regions of China, this report suggests that some regions should be selected according to their characteristics to carry out pilot programs for optimizing the birth policy, ensuring that the policy is targeted and effective, and providing reference for optimizing the birth policy nationwide. Linze County can be included in the national pilot program as a representative of western counties.

The report calls for top-level design in institutional design to avoid policy fragmentation and regional differences, and to guide local governments to adapt to local conditions within a larger policy framework, as optimizing the birth policy is a long-term, forward-looking, and fundamental systematic project.

The research team also found that the reason why Linze County was able to introduce an optimized childbirth policy is mainly due to the promotion and support of party and government leaders such as the county party secretary and county mayor.

"The current and future optimization of fertility policies is a highly professional, technical, and policy oriented system, and cannot be solved simply by incentive policies such as subsidies." The research group stated that there is an urgent need to carry out population and national education and training on optimizing fertility policies to enhance the population management decision-making ability of party and government officials.