Is it a lie or is humans more heat-resistant?, Year after year, it is said that the "hottest" El Ni ñ o in history | average temperature | humanity

The recent Dragon Boat Festival holiday saw temperatures in the north and south hang upside down.

In the south, under the continuous suppression of the "violent plum", the temperature is not rising, and the body feels cool and comfortable. At the same time, many areas in the north have persistent high fever, and frequent visits to areas with temperatures above 40 ℃ in North China and the Huanghuai region have made many people doubt their lives.

Although there are significant regional differences in the concentration of high temperatures in various parts of China, it is not common for many northern regions to experience high temperatures above 40 ℃ in June. If something goes wrong, there must be a demon. Once the subtropical high pressure lifts northward, will the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River experience plum blossoms, and will the hot and hot weather be even more severe than in previous years?

The truth is often more thrilling than imagined. According to the prediction of the National Climate Center, the temperature in most parts of the country this summer is close to the same period as usual and above 0.5 ℃; In some areas, the temperature will rise by 1 ℃ to 2 ℃, and the number of high-temperature days will also be higher than the same period in normal years, which may lead to periodic high-temperature heatwaves.

However, as the world is hot and cold, it is not just China that is being grilled. According to the China Science Daily, with the soaring global ocean temperatures and the arrival of El Ni ñ o in the Pacific, 2023 may become the hottest year on record.

Flipping through recent reports on high temperatures, such as "the hottest year in history" and "the hottest year on record"... Such statements seem familiar, but is it true?

Multiple domestic regions have repeatedly broken records for high temperatures

Watch the "exaggerated performance" of this year's high temperature

High temperatures occur every year, and this year is particularly hot - in recent summers, people can always find similar words online. This year seems to be another "hottest candidate year", and many of us have already had such a "user experience":

On April 17, 2023, for many people in Hangzhou, it was an ordinary day. However, in the afternoon, there was a sudden change - at 16:13 on the same day, the real-time temperature at the Hangzhou National Station soared to 35.0 ℃, setting the earliest high-temperature day in Hangzhou since the founding of the People's Republic of China and breaking the record for the highest temperature in April.

The National Meteorological Administration defines a day with a maximum daily temperature greater than or equal to 35 ℃ as a "hot day". Therefore, the first hot day in Hangzhou this year was earlier than the one in Israel.

Not only in Hangzhou, but also in various parts of the country, high temperatures are rolling up.

As early as June, more than half of China's provincial capital cities experienced the "first high temperature" of the year, and the vast majority of them were "early registration": Chongqing, Guangzhou, Chengdu and other places were more than a month early; Nanjing, Hefei, Jinan and other places are more than 20 days earlier; Wuhan, Tianjin, Changsha, and Haikou are also more than 10 days earlier than the annual average.

In recent years, summer has come earlier and hotter, is it our illusion? Maybe not really.

Sorting through China's meteorological big data, it is found that the high temperatures in most areas of China are coming earlier and earlier, and the number of days is also increasing. Among provincial capital cities, Chongqing, Fuzhou, Hangzhou, Haikou and other places have the highest number of hot weather days, with an average of over 30 days per year; Changsha, Nanchang, Xi'an, Wuhan, Guangzhou and other places also have high heat values, with an average of over 20 days of high temperatures per year; Nanning, Zhengzhou, Shijiazhuang, Hefei, Nanjing, Shanghai, Jinan, Tianjin, and Beijing have an average of more than 10 days of high temperature per year.

Beijing's performance is slightly exaggerated. On June 22nd during the Dragon Boat Festival, the highest temperature at the southern suburbs of Beijing Observatory, representing the "Beijing temperature," skyrocketed to 41.1 ℃, breaking the 62 year high temperature record for the same period in June since 1961.

High temperatures in multiple parts of the world with the same frequency

Are they all caused by El Ni ñ o?

Why did the high temperature come so early and so hot this year?

National Distinguished Professor and Dean of the Climate and Applied Frontier Research Institute at Nanjing University of Information Technology, Luo Jingjia, stated in an interview with Chao News that the El Ni ñ o event in the equatorial Pacific is currently developing rapidly. Many regions of China are affected by high pressure, and solar radiation is causing rapid warming, which overall raises the temperature level. Therefore, people feel "unbearable heat" early on. However, the causes of high temperatures are complex and cannot be simply attributed to the impact of El Ni ñ o. The background of global warming and short-term weather changes also have significant impacts.

Luo Jingjia believes that 2023 may not be the year with the highest global average temperature. With the soaring world ocean temperatures and the arrival of the Pacific El Ni ñ o, it will drive temperatures towards higher directions. 2024 may set a higher record, and the average temperature is expected to continue to rise in the future.

Not only China, but also the whole world are being grilled.

Not long ago, a heatwave swept across India, with temperatures exceeding 40 ℃ in many areas. Among them, the highest temperature in the Paria region of Uttar Pradesh reached 42.2 ℃, which is 4.7 ℃ higher than the normal level in previous years; The highest temperature in the capital of Bihar, Patna, reached 44.7 ℃.

South Asia is hot and uncomfortable, and Southeast Asia is also not easy.

In the past period of time, the perceived temperature in Thailand's capital cities such as Bangkok and Phuket has reached 54 ℃; The perceived temperature in some parts of the Philippines is approaching 50 ℃; Vietnam set a new record for temperature, reaching 44.1 ℃; Laos recorded a high temperature of 43.5 ℃, breaking its historical record. A town in eastern Myanmar has recorded a temperature of 43.8 ℃, the highest in the local area in 10 years.

Many parts of Europe are also facing the invasion of extreme drought. According to data from Spain's national meteorological department, the drought and heat in April reached the highest level since 1961.

The United States, which is also located in the northern hemisphere, is experiencing high temperatures. The southern states along the Gulf of Mexico coast continue to experience high temperatures. According to the National Weather Service of the United States, areas such as Houston, Texas can experience temperatures ranging from 46 to 49 ℃.

Before summer arrives, a heatwave has arrived. Since 1980, the global average temperature has broken records 12 times, with 10 of them occurring in the year of El Ni ñ o.

So, is the frequent "barbecue" mode in many parts of the world caused by El Ni ñ o?

The World Meteorological Organization issued a notice in early May that the La Niña phenomenon has now ended after three years, and the tropical Pacific is currently in a neutral state ENSO.

WMO predicts that the likelihood of transitioning from ENSO neutral to El Ni ñ o phenomenon will increase to approximately 70% from June to August, and to 80% from July to September. Earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States also issued an alert stating that the El Ni ñ o phenomenon has occurred and is expected to continue into winter.

However, the occurrence of extreme high temperatures in a region is also related to specific weather conditions, with a certain degree of randomness and randomness, and is generally the result of nonlinear processes in atmospheric circulation.

Extreme high temperatures are also closely related to global warming

But its impact also has two sides

In addition to the aforementioned reasons such as El Ni ñ o, the repeated occurrence of extreme high temperatures is actually closely related to the increasingly severe global warming.

In the context of global warming, the stronger the intensity of El Ni ñ o, the more significant the increase in global average temperature. For example, from 2014 to 2016, the intensity of El Ni ñ o reached a super strong level, and the global average temperature set new records continuously in these three years.

According to the research of the World Weather Attribution Group, global warming has played a central role in the recent extreme heat weather events in South Asia and Southeast Asia.

In addition to natural factors, human factors are the main cause of global warming. This attribution was confirmed in the report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, led by the United Nations, in 2021. The core conclusion of this report is that there is a broad consensus in the scientific community that human activities have caused global warming.

What should we do to address global warming? In Luo Jingjia's view, the root cause is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, reduce the use of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, and use new energy sources such as wind and solar energy, such as advocating for new energy vehicles to replace traditional fuel vehicles.

However, Luo Jingjia also believes that global warming has two sides and should be analyzed on a case by case basis, with a reasonable understanding. Their team's research has shown that the El Ni ñ o and La Ni ñ a phenomena have different impacts on the yield of four types of crops: corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice. For example, in years when El Ni ñ o occurs, the rice harvest in southern China will decrease, "although there are also some regions, such as Russia's wheat, that will increase production; or rice production in mid to high latitude regions will also increase."

Luo Jingjia said that in the years when the La Ni ñ a phenomenon occurred, these crops showed signs of yield reduction compared to the average values of previous years, but the affected areas were smaller compared to the El Ni ñ o phenomenon. "Behind these changes is a manifestation of human subjectivity. We should fully utilize its positive side, avoid its negative side, and minimize the losses it brings."

Facing extreme high temperatures

Has our heat resistance deteriorated?

Ultimately, what we are more concerned about is how people should face extreme high temperatures.

How high can the human body withstand temperature?

Research has shown that the most comfortable external temperature for the human body is 24 ℃~25 ℃. When the humidity is low, the weather between 36 ℃~37 ℃ is the limit for the human body; When the humidity is high, 30 ℃ reaches the limit of the human body. When the temperature reaches 40 ℃, it exceeds the limit of the human body.

According to the Hangzhou Emergency Center, the number of heatstroke patients has doubled compared to the entire month of June and May this year. Once "plum blossoms" appear, Hangzhou will enter the "barbecue mode". According to previous emergency transportation data, it can be predicted that the number of heatstroke and related patients will also increase this year with the high temperature in summer.

Has the human body become more heat-resistant as high temperatures become more frequent?

Many experiments have confirmed that the human body's heat tolerance is related to heat stress proteins, and the more heat stress proteins in the body, the stronger the heat tolerance. If exposed to high temperatures for a long time, the synthesis of stress proteins will increase, thereby enhancing the body's heat tolerance. However, air conditioning is slowly taking away people's heat resistance skills. Especially for white-collar workers who sit in the office for a long time, their heat-resistant stress proteins significantly decrease with the prolongation of air conditioning time. Long term blowing of air conditioning cold air can easily push hot air back into the body, causing the hot air in the body to be unable to be discharged, resulting in internal heat and causing dysfunction of the body. Once the disease resistance decreases, symptoms such as colds and fever will come knocking on your door, and sudden exposure to high temperatures can make you more susceptible to heatstroke.

Experts suggest that the most direct adverse effect of hot weather on health is heat stroke, which can be divided into premonitory heat stroke, mild heat stroke, and severe heat stroke. Severe heat stroke, especially heat stroke, poses a high risk of death.

According to Lu Meili, the head of the dispatch department at the Hangzhou Emergency Center, heat stroke refers to a condition in which a patient's body is unable to dissipate heat normally, resulting in a large amount of heat accumulation and an increase in body temperature. It often manifests as high fever, lack of sweating, convulsions, and unclear consciousness, and is a life-threatening and critical illness.

So, what can we do in this situation?

"If the above symptoms occur, you should immediately call 120." Lu Meili suggested that the patient should be moved out of the high-temperature environment, take off as much clothing as possible, and remind them not to move. It should be noted that it is important to cool the patient down. If possible, place the patient in cold water, with the water depth not reaching the patient's neck at most, or spray cold water on the patient's body. If the patient loses response and has abnormal breathing or only a dying sigh like breathing, immediate cardiopulmonary resuscitation should be performed.