Is another war about to break out?, Mars is creaking
It's still very worrying to see, because in this powder barrel, sparks are creaking again.
Someone has already fallen into a pool of blood.
According to Armenia, Azerbaijan has recently assembled a large number of troops along the border and used drones and mortars to attack Armenian positions, resulting in the deaths of three Armenian soldiers on September 1st.
Azerbaijan denies all accusations, accusing Armenia of provoking and even deploying drones to launch attacks on Azerbaijani villages, resulting in three Azerbaijanis being injured.
Everything is so familiar.
Three years ago in 2020, a war broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia, resulting in at least 6500 deaths. At that time, the Azerbaijani army completely occupied the advantage, especially the live video. The Azerbaijani army used Türkiye's drones to hit the Armenian tanks one by one. This kind of nearly devastating dimension reduction attack was particularly impressive.
Armenia was forced to retreat, and Azerbaijan recaptured the strategic stronghold of Naka in one fell swoop. Finally, with the intervention of Russia, both sides achieved a ceasefire. At present, the Russian military has deployed about 2000 peacekeeping troops near the ceasefire line.
But over the past three years, Mars has been constantly evolving.
I remember last year, which was also September, when both sides engaged in another fierce battle, with continuous artillery fire that almost dyed the entire sky red. Both countries announced that about ten soldiers had been killed by each other.
As for the reason, it must be Rashomon again.
But the trigger is undoubtedly the gunpowder barrel of Naka.
Nagorno Karabakh, also known as Nagorno Karabakh, has a population of approximately 170000 and covers an area of 4400 square kilometers.
The main population in the area is Armenians who practice Christianity. But the division of the Soviet Union is very interesting. Naka is mainly Armenian, but it belongs to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, predominantly adheres to Islam.
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the various republics gained independence, and a fierce war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan to compete for Naka, known as the First Naka War. 30000 people died and 1 million were forced to leave their homes.
The Armenian army was very strong at the time and captured the Naka region. But this laid the groundwork for the second Naqa War in 2020.
This is really a heartbreaking ending.
During the Soviet era, various ethnic groups coexisted with each other and remained relatively peaceful overall. In the Nakar region, during the Soviet era, four fifths were Armenian and one fifth were Azerbaijani; However, according to statistics from the Naqa authorities in 2015, there were no Azerbaijanis in the area.
But feng shui took turns, and in 2020 Azerbaijan defeated and regained Naka. Seeing elderly Azerbaijanis trembling and returning home, tears welled up. I also saw many Armenians burning their homes with tears in their eyes, turning around and leaving.
As soon as I walked away, I didn't know when I would come back again.
From an international political perspective, Azerbaijan and Armenia are both small countries:
Azerbaijan has an area of 86000 square kilometers and a population of 9.7 million;
Armenia covers an area of 29000 square kilometers and has a population of 3.1 million.
That is to say, the land area of Azerbaijan is roughly equivalent to our Chongqing; Armenia is slightly smaller than our Hainan. As for population and economic scale, they cannot be compared to our two regions.
But Azerbaijan has oil, and Baku is the oil center of the Caucasus region. Therefore, after decades of development, Azerbaijan's current comprehensive national strength, especially military strength, is greatly stronger than Armenia.
Behind Azerbaijan, there is also Türkiye, which has provided a large number of advanced weapons for the little brother.
Although Armenia is small, there is also Russia behind it, and it is still a member of the Central Security Organization.
When I was working in Jerusalem back then, I was surprised to find that the old city of Jerusalem was divided into four parts, one of which was an Armenian district. In the West, there are also many Armenians. Armenia and Türkiye are feuds. Therefore, in terms of religious sentiment, Westerners generally side with Armenians.
Interestingly, Armenia seems to be more angry towards Russia now. Just the day before the latest conflict broke out, Armenia criticized Russia and showed "absolute indifference" to attacks on its ally's territory.
Because according to the regulations of the Central Security Organization, an attack on Armenia is an attack on all member countries, but Russia ignored it.
Why?
Russia also faces difficulties. Helping Armenia, Armenia seems to have turned its elbows outward and prefers the West; Against Azerbaijan, there is Türkiye behind Azerbaijan, which impacts the more important Russian Turkish relations.
What are the rest points for Azerbaijan and Armenia?
It's also impossible. Armenia is angry at Azerbaijan for taking an inch and bullying others too much; Azerbaijan is angry at Armenia's defeat and still refuses to acknowledge the reality.
Internationally, Armenia has also accused Azerbaijan of blocking the passage between Naka and Armenia in order to "starve" the Armenians in Naka.
If you don't agree, then let's fight.
Truth is within the range of a cannon. In many parts of this world, it is still so cruel and ruthless.
Finally, what do you think?
I am very emotional, let's stick to three basic points.
Firstly, another powder keg is being ignited.
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, Russia, Islam, Catholicism, Eastern Orthodox Church, Armenian sects, all kinds of contradictions are intertwined, behind which there are thousands of years of national hatred, religious conflicts, territorial disputes. When is it really time to repay each other? The mishandling of ethnic and religious conflicts has been a curse for thousands of years.
Secondly, the most unlucky are always the common people.
The three countries in the Caucasus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, as well as the disputed regions of Naka, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, etc., have small areas, small populations, and overall are not wealthy. But in the past 30 years, there have been constant wars and turmoil. Why? These are all sequelae of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and they never end.
Third, the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are spilling over.
It must be noted that the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are spilling over. Specifically, in the Caucasus, if Russia's energy is not constrained, will Azerbaijan and Armenia be able to fight? If Russia's power is severely weakened, does it still have enough prestige to withstand other Mars?
Are similar issues only in the Caucasus? Don't forget, after the Soviet East upheaval, the once hidden contradictions suddenly erupted. In the Soviet Union, in Yugoslavia, how many wars erupted at once, and how many people fell to the ground as a result.
Also, in the first Naqa War, Armenia won; The second Naqa War, Azerbaijan won. I have to admit, development is still a hard truth!
From the Russia-Ukraine conflict, from the Naka struggle, we can also hear the rattle of geopolitical fission.
When I worked in Afghanistan and Jerusalem back then, one of my deepest feelings was that without going to these places, you really don't understand the value of peace and people's desire for peace. Without peace, nothing can be said.
But in this world, the road to peace is vast, and both eyes are bloodshot.
Personal opinion does not represent any organization