Is a civil war about to break out?, Israeli legislators who have been surrounded and beaten four times but still stand firm | Reform | Israel

Israel, with its miracle of being an indestructible superpower in the four Middle East wars, has shaken the world.

However, this small country, which is known to the world as united, resilient, and strong, has been torn apart internally this year due to the judicial reforms forcefully promoted by the Netanyahu government. Protests and demonstrations have been prolonged and intensified in major cities. Israeli President Herzog and former Prime Minister Olmert have warned that due to this crisis, "Israel may fall into a civil war.".

Half a century later, Israel once again reached a crossroads that determined its national destiny. This time, there were no 570000 strong armies from Egypt, Syria, or Iraq pressing down from both directions, but the level of danger was comparable.

Lenin once said, "Forts are easiest to break through from within.". The Chao News reporter has invited multiple international experts to thoroughly analyze the situation of the "Middle East Little Overlord" for you.

The power of the Supreme Court will be significantly weakened

On July 24th, despite 56 opposition members boycotting the vote in parliament, Prime Minister Netanyahu's right-wing coalition of 64 members passed the judicial reform bill with a score of 64:0.

The bill deprives the Israeli Supreme Court of the power to reject government decisions on the grounds of "irrationality", weakens the Supreme Court's supervisory power over government decisions, and allows parliament to overturn the Supreme Court's ruling by a simple majority.

According to Zhu Zhaoyi, an international scholar at the University of International Business and Economics, there are three important amendments to this reform. In addition to the one passed on the 24th, it also includes increasing government representative seats in the Judicial Appointment Committee of the Supreme Court and limiting the Supreme Court's power to review parliamentary legislation.

Each article is aimed at the Supreme Court, with the clear purpose of significantly weakening the judicial power in the separation of powers.

The next step is expected to be voted on in parliament around October this autumn at the earliest. If approved, the government will gain greater judicial appointment power. At that time, Netanyahu will further push for legislation and transfer the power of appointing Supreme Court judges to parliament.

"Their overall goal is essentially to empower a small group of people to do anything," wrote Sasha, the head of the Brookings Institution's Middle East Policy Center, on social media

As a parliamentary cabinet system country, Israel's parliamentary majority party is able to control both the parliament and the central government, effectively concentrating administrative and legislative power in one hand. Originally, the only thing that could be balanced was the Supreme Court.

Zhu Zhaoyi believes that the true implementation of the three amendments will result in the full control of national power by the Prime Minister, and the political pattern of separation of powers and balanced constraints will be disrupted.

Israeli left-wing Labour Party lawmaker Razmi said the struggle for judicial reform is Israel's "new war of independence".

One of the designers of judicial reform, Rosman, believes that it is now time for the Israeli people to decide whether the country should be "ruled by the people or by judges.".

Protest waves sweep across Israel

Since January this year, protesters have held demonstrations on weekends for 30 consecutive weeks. On July 23rd, the largest demonstration in Israel since its founding broke out, with up to 550000 people taking to the streets, accounting for approximately 6% of the total population of Israel.

After the judicial reform bill was passed, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets again to protest, and four major Israeli newspapers placed large black images in prominent positions with the title "A Dark Day of Israeli Democracy.".

According to the Associated Press, thousands of Israeli doctors have stopped working, union leaders have threatened a general strike, and senior judges have returned to Israel from abroad.

Thousands of Israeli Defense Force reserve personnel threatened to withdraw from volunteer service. The soul figure of the Israeli Defense Force and Chief of Army General Staff, Aaron, has clearly stated that he does not support judicial reform and has joined forces with reserve soldiers who refuse to serve in the military to protest against the reform. Several retired officials, including intelligence agency Mossad, have supported Aaron's statement.

The Israel Chamber of Commerce and Industry has issued an official statement stating that 150 large and medium-sized enterprises will cease operations from July 24th and calling on other companies to join the strike, with the aim of demanding that the government stop unilateral legislation and engage in constructive dialogue with the public.

Numerous well-known entrepreneurs and investors in Israel have also made intensive appearances in recent months, supporting ordinary people taking to the streets to protest against judicial reform.

A survey by the Israel Innovation Agency showed that 68% of 521 technology startups are considering moving out of Israel, while 37% of the surveyed companies stated that they have withdrawn some of their funds from Israel.

The high-tech industry is the lifeblood of Israel's economic development. Once numerous high-quality technology companies choose to withdraw, it will undoubtedly have a devastating impact on Israel's technological level and economic development quality in the medium to long term.

Some Israelis who oppose reform are beginning to pin their hopes on President Herzog, who has no real power, refusing to sign the bill. Some people also hope that the United States will use $4 billion in annual military aid as a bargaining chip to restrict the Netanyahu administration, rather than just describing the passage of the bill as "unfortunate" by the White House spokesperson.

The thunder buried in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China exploded 70 years later

Israel is one of the few countries in the world without a written constitution. When disputes arise between the three powers, there is no fundamental law to rely on, which has laid the foundation for today's political crisis. This is actually a historical legacy issue.

At the beginning of its founding, the father of Israel, Gurion, made compromises for unity and did not formulate a constitution. Instead, he established the basic law that established Israel's national identity and basic social system.

In the absence of a constitution, judicial power began to expand autonomously, and former Supreme Court Chief Justice Barack expanded the Supreme Court's power through precedent in the 1990s. Currently, Netanyahu has restricted the Supreme Court through a parliamentary vote, but due to the lack of a constitution, it is also impossible to determine its legality.

"At the beginning of its founding, there was still an important contradiction. Is Israel a Jewish nation or a democratic and rule of law country? Over the past 75 years, different rulers have only been wavering on both sides." Zhu Zhaoyi believes that this has made it increasingly difficult for Israel to take a middle ground and internal divisions are severe.

"In 2002, I studied in Israel and heard a saying that whether Israel will exist in 10 years is a question." Jin Liangxiang, associate researcher at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told Chao News reporters that in the past 20 years, Israel has introduced a large number of Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe, especially Russia and Ukraine. These people are politically leaning towards the right to balance the dominance of left-wing forces.

Li Xinggang, a researcher at the Mediterranean Research Institute of Zhejiang University of Foreign Languages, said, "The left wing of Israel's political spectrum is mainly secular Jews who seek reconciliation and peaceful coexistence with Palestine. The right wing, represented by the Likud group in Taniahu, believes that the border between Israel and Palestine should be 'between the great river and the sea'. Its most exaggerated definition is between the Euphrates River and the Mediterranean, and its more implicit definition is between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean, which tends to deny the legitimate rights and interests of Palestinians."

As a right-wing representative, Netanyahu has served as the Prime Minister of Israel for five terms since 1996, reflecting the reality of the growing right-wing power. One of Netanyahu's ways of giving back to his supporters is to ignore the call of the international community and the legitimate rights and interests of the Palestinians, and to forcefully build Jewish settlements in the occupied territories.

The Israeli government's excessive aggression towards Palestinian expansion may occasionally be subject to formal constraints by the Supreme Court. There have been precedents in which the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the election of Hamas legislators who were disqualified.

"This judicial reform, in the eyes of left-wing secular Jews, will subvert the foundation of the country. Israel will be controlled by religious Jews, tending towards a Jewish state with strong religious connotations rather than the existing Western style democratic state of Israel," said Li Xinggang.

Isha reconciliation may lead to a sharp increase in external pressure on Israel

Looking around the world, it is difficult to find a country with a more precarious geopolitical situation than Israel. With a land area of only one or two thousand square kilometers and a population of only 9.56 million, it is deeply immersed in the vast ocean of long-term religious and cultural opposition. This puts Israel in almost constant conflict of all sizes.

Human history has proven that frequent wars require centralized power, efficient decision-making, and efficient mobilization of national resources in order to increase the chances of victory. However, Israel, surrounded by tigers and wolves, was influenced by the British and American forces that supported its founding and established a parliamentary democracy. In the past, Arab countries were generally technologically and militarily backward, and they constantly fought against each other. Their hatred towards each other was often greater than towards Israel.

However, the surrounding situation is rapidly changing. After the hasty withdrawal of the US military from Iraq in 2011, there was a significant power vacuum around Israel. The left wing of Israel is trying to reconcile with the Arabs, while the right wing is advocating for expanding living space, and neither side can convince the other. As a result, Iran, its opponent, took the opportunity to expand its sphere of influence and approach Israel's secure borders.

Now, Saudi Arabia and Iran have achieved historic reconciliation, Iraq has also come closer to Shia Iran, and Syria's Assad has stabilized the situation. A united Arab world is already taking shape, which will be Israel's nightmare. And Israel's umbrella, the United States, is showing signs of withdrawing from the Middle East and shifting its strategic focus eastward, which can be imagined as Netanyahu's inner anxiety. He naturally seeks greater power to deal with greater external threats in the future.

Due to the decline of the left wing and the right-wing leaning of the country, the polarization within Israel continues to intensify. According to a 2022 study by the Israel Institute for Democracy, approximately 60% of Israeli Jews consider themselves right-wing. Among young people aged 18-24, this number has risen to 70%.

The continuous growth of the domestic right-wing base has given Netanyahu enough confidence. Entering 2023, at the age of 73, he finally made a move.

The possibility of civil war is unlikely, and foreign wars are worth being vigilant about

According to the Russian satellite news agency, Netanyahu publicly stated on August 1st, "I assure you that there will be no civil war... I believe that people's fear of being incited will subside, and they will see Israel as democratic as before, or even more so."

He also stated that judicial reform aims to correct the imbalance in Israeli democracy, where the judiciary has usurped all the powers of the executive and legislative branches.

"The possibility of Israel eventually breaking out into a civil war is unlikely," Sun Degang, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University, told Chao News reporters that the social opposition caused by judicial reform will weaken the ruling foundation of the Netanyahu government, and the opposition alliance will become more united. At the same time, social chaos will also damage Israel's image as a Western "democratic model", indicating that Middle Eastern countries must consider their own national conditions in exploring the path of political modernization, and there are drawbacks to copying the Western "separation of powers" model.

Yu Guoqing, a researcher at the West Asia and Africa Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that "Israel will not collapse, and it is too arbitrary to say that a civil war will break out.". He reminded that what is worth being wary of is the possibility of an outbreak of foreign war.

"If domestic conflicts continue to escalate, in order to maintain national cohesion and divert people's attention, will the Netanyahu government cater to the demands of far right forces and implement a more aggressive or even extreme route towards the outside world? This may lead to armed conflicts, and the difficult to ease Middle East situation may once again become tense."