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"India earns money and spends Indian money, but they both want to take it home." - This is a caption from Zong Lei, who is doing business in India, when sharing the news on his social media that "India requires Indian nationals to serve as CEOs of Chinese mobile phone companies.". In 2017, Zong Lei made his first trip to India as an exchange student, studying at the Indian School of Management Ahmedabad, and later working and starting his own business in India. Nowadays, he mainly engages in import and export business with China, India, the Middle East, and other regions.

For two weeks in a row, topics about India have made headlines. In addition to Prime Minister Modi's visit to the United States, the Indian government has also requested Chinese mobile phone manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OPPO, Realme, Vivo, etc. in India to introduce Indian equity partners, while appointing Indian executives to key positions such as CEO and COO. Just a few days ago, the Indian law enforcement agency issued a formal notice to Xiaomi India, some executives, and relevant banks, accusing them of illegally transferring funds to foreign entities and suspected violations of India's Foreign Exchange Management Law. The market believes that this accusation means that Xiaomi's 4.8 billion yuan frozen by India last year is likely to be officially confiscated.

Faced with the overwhelming confusion about India's "bandit logic" in China, Zong Lei appeared relatively calm: "Xiaomi is not the first, nor will it be the last." He told Chao News reporters that in the past decade, many foreign companies in India, from Nokia to Samsung, from Harley to Ford, and recently Rongyao, Weichuang, and so on, have been punished, lost, and escaped. However, there are still a large number of foreign investors rushing to India one after another, trying to get a share of the rising elephant.

What kind of country is India, a neighbor that we are both familiar with and unfamiliar with? Is India worth investing in?

Understanding India is more difficult than understanding quantum mechanics

The author of "Incredible India", Wang Tao, has been in continuous contact with the Indian market for fifteen years. From 2004 to 2006, he also served as the General Manager of ZTE India and was stationed in India, with offices in Delhi and Mumbai. "If India doesn't make you feel unbelievable, then what you're touching is not the real India," Wang Tao told Chao News reporters

For example, the pursuit of low prices by Indians has reached an incredible level, even they themselves cannot explain the reasons. Wang Tao said that there was once a business representative from an Indian company who would say "too high, too high" no matter what kind of quotation they faced. If they were given some non core products for free, they would definitely say "too little, too little". "Often, a quotation can only be signed after being modified a few or more times and receiving countless discounts. However, when you think it's good to maintain the original price, the amount of blood you need to vomit during the contract execution process depends on luck. We joke that 'bad debt provisions for Indian bargaining' can be included in the financial account."

Indian time is also impressive. "If an Indian says they will come to you 15 minutes later at 10 o'clock in the morning, don't think it's true. It's not even certain if he can come today; if he says 10 seconds, it may be an hour later." In Wang Tao's view, the Indian's disregard for the concept of time is unbelievable.

However, although "understanding India is more difficult than understanding quantum mechanics," Wang Tao said he still "really likes India.". "India is not a completely rational country, but it has its own laws and charm. When you explore these characteristics and act according to them, you will find it not so difficult, and India is also worth learning from in many aspects."

Zong Lei also has the same view. Having studied and worked in India, and later started his own business, he has gradually become accustomed to it, starting from a leisurely life. "Many people believe that India is torn apart, and indeed so. On the one hand, it is the high-speed economic growth, the globally popular Bollywood, the shining management group of large American technology companies; on the other hand, it is the dirty and disorderly environment, the large-scale slums, caste inequality, and ethnic disunity, all of which are real India." Zong Lei said that there are many problems in Indian society that cannot be explained day and night, but it also has its benefits. "This is a place where ethnic, religious, linguistic, historical, and future longitudes are intertwined in a particularly complex way. Humans and animals, fashion and tradition, piety and rebellion coexist, and it attracts me very much."

Of course, what attracts him the most is India's soaring GDP and huge economic prospects.

The rising tide should support all ships

What is the economic outlook for India? Multi angle data may explain.

According to data from the Indian National Bureau of Statistics, the average nominal GDP growth rate in India in the past decade was 10.6%, the GDP deflator index was 5.1%, and the actual average growth rate was 5.5%.

From a global perspective, in 2010, India's GDP ranked ninth globally. Subsequently, it continuously surpassed Brazil, Italy, and France, and historically surpassed the UK in the fourth quarter of 2021, becoming the world's fifth largest economy. Some institutions predict that in the future, India will even surpass Germany and Japan to become the third largest economy in the world by 2030, and Indian households will become the largest spenders among the G20 economies.

According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, India's GDP growth rate will be 6.1% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2024, making it recognized as one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

"India may be stronger than we imagine, and it is ushering in a precious historical opportunity." Li Xin, Associate Professor at the Institute of India Studies at the Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with Chao News that some countries are currently seeking industrial chain transfer. As a populous country with a total population exceeding China, India has obvious advantages in economic size and labor supply compared to other countries. Meanwhile, the vast and constantly developing domestic consumer market is of great significance to both India itself and the external world. "Whether India can seize opportunities depends on whether it can solve some of the current domestic problems that constrain its development."

As Li Xin said, the low employment rate, fragile infrastructure, and poor business environment are eroding India's economic body. Taking employment as an example, data shows that in the decade from 2012 to 2022, India had 7 to 9 million job seekers annually, but the job market did not generate a sufficient net increase in new job positions. "If these issues are not handled properly, the demographic dividend will instead become a burden on the population." Li Xin said that in contrast to the difficulty in employment, India remains the "country with the largest number of impoverished people in the world". "India needs to be vigilant about the problem of uncoordinated development and let the rising tide benefit every sector of society."

According to Li Xin's research, many problems in India point to insufficient development of the manufacturing industry. "If India's manufacturing industry cannot rise, then India cannot rise." This is also why the Modi government launched the "Made in India" movement in 2014, vowing to establish a strong manufacturing industry in India. "However, the fundamental issues of land and labor systems in the development of manufacturing are extremely difficult to solve," said Li Xin.

After India's desire to "de Sinicize", trade between China and India has not decreased but increased

In an interview with Chao News reporters, Zong Lei, Wang Tao, and Li Xin shared the feeling that "the current Sino Indian relationship is relatively tense".

The relationship between China and India can be seen in the handling of the issue of media residences between China and India.

On June 12th, at a regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a reporter asked, "According to reports, the only Indian journalist stationed in China has recently been asked to leave China.". In response, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wang Wenbin, stated that since 2020, India has refused to approve the application of Chinese journalists to stay in India, resulting in a sharp reduction in the number of Chinese journalists from fourteen to only one. Moreover, India has not yet agreed to extend the visa for the last Chinese journalist to stay in India. The media is an important bridge to promote mutual understanding and friendly feelings. China is willing to continue to maintain communication with the Indian side based on the principles of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit. We hope that the Indian side will move towards the Chinese side and take practical and effective measures to issue visas for Chinese permanent journalists as soon as possible, lift unreasonable restrictions on Chinese journalists, and create favorable conditions for the resumption of normal media exchanges between China and India.

"The current situation is partly due to India's repeated efforts in recent years to bring long-standing border issues to the table, advocating them as a major prerequisite for China India relations to break free from the current low point. However, China believes that the border issue should be placed in an appropriate position in bilateral relations and viewed from a comprehensive, long-term, and strategic perspective on the relationship and mutual development. India's current attitude is that if the border issue is not resolved, there is no room for discussion between China and India." Li Xin said, but at the beginning of this century, when China India relations were good, the border issue was not actually resolved. "Ultimately, it is still a matter of interests. The 'moderate tension' between India and China has given certain development space for US India relations."

Li Xin believes that the game between China and the United States is a rare strategic opportunity for India, and India definitely hopes to enhance its image as a major country, world discourse power, and influence through this. "It's like the feeling of 'national luck' coming. With the competition between two superpowers, India suddenly has many opportunities. For example, if China and the United States want to decouple, then the global industrial and value chains need to be restructured and transferred, and India will become a choice for the United States."

According to Indian media reports, starting from June 21st, Indian Prime Minister Modi will visit the United States. Since taking office in 2014, Modi has visited the United States six times, but this is the first time he has been mentioned as a "state visit". In response, the Wall Street Journal stated that India is expected to benefit from the standoff between the West and Russia, as well as the increasing confrontation with China.

In 2018, India announced a 25% tariff on imported products from China in an attempt to reduce domestic imports of goods from China. However, despite years of economic "de Sinicization", bilateral trade between China and India has increased instead of decreasing. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the trade volume between India and China reached $125.6 billion in 2021. India's imports from China amounted to 97.5 billion US dollars, while its exports reached 28.1 billion US dollars. In 2022, the bilateral trade volume between China and India reached a record high of 135.984 billion US dollars.

At the same time, India is also targeting Chinese investment companies in India. In 2020, India reviewed and banned TikTok, mobile game PlayerUnknown, and other popular applications from China, including Shein, Xiaomi Mi Community, Weibo, etc., citing threats to national security and sovereignty. In 2022, Vivo and ZTE were once again included in India's review scope on suspicion of financial misconduct. Since 2020, these Chinese companies have been under the surveillance of Indian authorities.

So, will China India relations improve in the future? Zong Lei, Wang Tao, and Li Xin all believe that the key still depends on India. Wang Tao said that China's attitude towards India has always been to be friendly with its neighbors. "Even if it's not good, it's not bad." Li Xin also said, "Security and peace are our top goals. If India is willing to talk, we will definitely be willing to talk to it. China is waiting for India with great patience and sincerity."

In Zong Lei's view, in the short term, China and India may become deadlocked in this balanced and unbalanced state, which will not be too good or too bad. At least during Modi's presidency, it will be like this But the three also hope that both China and India will have sufficient strategic vision and determination to make efforts to turn the tide of the relationship between the two connected Asian powers.