Interpretation of July CPI by the National Bureau of Statistics: The year-on-year decline is a phased manufacturing industry | percentage points | year-on-year

Release time:Apr 14, 2024 16:13 PM

The National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI and PPI data for July 2023 today. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation of this.

1. CPI from decline to rise, down year-on-year

In July, consumer demand continued to recover, and the CPI turned from a decline to an increase, but it fell year-on-year due to the high base in the same period last year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rebounded significantly, rising 0.8 per cent year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month.

From a month on month perspective, the CPI has shifted from a 0.2% decrease in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%. Among them, food prices decreased by 1.0%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, affecting a decrease of approximately 0.18 percentage points in CPI. In the food industry, seasonal fruits and vegetables are widely available, with prices of fresh fruits and vegetables decreasing by 5.1% and 1.9% respectively; The market supply is sufficient, pork prices remain stable, while prices of eggs, edible oil, beef and mutton, and poultry have decreased by 0.4% to 1.4%. Non food prices have decreased from 0.1% last month to an increase of 0.5%, affecting a CPI increase of approximately 0.40 percentage points. In the non food sector, service prices have increased by 0.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. This is mainly driven by the rise in travel service prices, with a significant increase in summer travel. Air ticket, tourism, and hotel accommodation prices have increased by 26.0%, 10.1%, and 6.5%, respectively. The price of industrial consumer goods decreased by 0.4% last month and increased by 0.3%, with domestic gasoline prices rising by 1.9% due to the impact of the rise in international oil prices; The 618 promotion has ended, and prices of large household appliances, household daily necessities, and personal care products have rebounded, with an increase of 0.7% to 1.2%.

From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI has decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous month when it remained unchanged. The year-on-year decrease from flat to flat is mainly due to the higher comparison base of the same period last year. Among them, food prices decreased by 1.7% from a 2.3% increase last month, affecting a decrease of approximately 0.31 percentage points in CPI. In terms of food, the price of pork has decreased by 26.0%, an increase of 18.8 percentage points compared to the previous month; The price of fresh vegetables has decreased by 1.5% from a 10.8% increase in the previous month; The prices of eggs, beef, mutton, and shrimp and crabs have decreased by 1.5% to 4.8%, with the decline expanding; The prices of fresh fruits, potatoes, and poultry have risen between 2.2% and 8.8%, with all gains falling back. Non food prices have remained stable, down 0.6% from last month. In the non food category, service prices increased by 1.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, air ticket prices decreased by 5.8% last month and increased by 11.9%. Hotel accommodation, tourism, movie, and performance ticket prices increased by 13.2%, 13.1%, and 5.9% respectively, with all increases expanding; The prices of industrial consumer goods decreased by 1.9%, narrowing the decline by 0.8 percentage points. Among them, energy prices decreased by 6.9%, and the prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy decreased by 0.3%, all of which narrowed.

According to calculations, in the 0.3% year-on-year decrease in CPI in July, the tail effect of price changes in the previous year was about 0, compared to 0.5 percentage points in the previous month; The new impact of price changes this year is about -0.3 percentage points, compared to -0.5 percentage points last month.

Overall, the year-on-year decline in CPI is phased. In the next stage, as China's economy recovers and improves, market demand steadily expands, supply and demand relations continue to improve, and coupled with the gradual elimination of the high base impact of the same period last year, CPI is expected to gradually rebound.

2. PPI month-on-month, year-on-year decline narrowed.

In July, the month-on-month and year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed due to factors such as the overall adequacy of domestic production and supply, improved demand in some industries and the transmission of international commodity prices.

From a month on month perspective, the PPI decreased by 0.2%, which is 0.6 percentage points narrower than the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 0.4%, with a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points; The price of living materials decreased by 0.2% last month and increased by 0.3%. The domestic supply of coal and steel is sufficient, and demand has increased. The prices of coal mining and washing industry, black metal smelting and rolling processing industry have decreased by 2.0% and 0.1% respectively, with the decline narrowing by 4.4 and 2.1 percentage points. Affected by the rising prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals in the international market, the prices of domestic oil and gas extraction industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry have all increased from a decrease to an increase, with prices rising by 4.2% and 0.4% respectively. In addition, the prices of computer manufacturing and intelligent consumer equipment manufacturing have both increased by 0.4%, while the prices of lithium-ion battery manufacturing have increased by 0.3%; The manufacturing industry of cultural, educational, industrial, artistic, sports, and entertainment products saw a 0.7% increase in prices, while the textile, clothing, and apparel industry saw a 0.6% increase in prices; The price of cement manufacturing decreased by 6.5%, and the price of glass manufacturing decreased by 2.9%.

From a year-on-year perspective, the PPI decreased by 4.4%, which is 1.0 percentage point narrower than the previous month. Among them, the prices of means of production decreased by 5.5%, with a narrower decrease of 1.3 percentage points; The price of living materials decreased by 0.4%, with a narrowing of 0.1 percentage points. The price decline in major industries has narrowed, with the oil and gas extraction industry decreasing by 21.5%, narrowing by 4.1 percentage points; The coal mining and washing industry decreased by 19.1%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points; The petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industry decreased by 18.3%, narrowing by 1.8 percentage points; The chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry decreased by 14.2%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points; The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 10.6%, narrowing by 5.4 percentage points; The non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 1.0%, narrowing by 6.2 percentage points. The total impact of the six industries mentioned above on PPI decreased by about 3.21 percentage points year-on-year, accounting for more than 70% of the total decline, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points compared to the previous month. In addition, the prices of cultural, educational, industrial, artistic, sports, and entertainment equipment manufacturing industries increased by 6.3%, the prices of electricity and heat production and supply industries increased by 1.8%, and the prices of textile, clothing, and apparel industries increased by 1.2%.

According to calculations, in the 4.4% year-on-year decline in PPI in July, the tail effect of price changes in the previous year was about -1.6 percentage points, compared to -2.8 percentage points in the previous month; The new impact of price changes this year is about -2.8 percentage points, compared to -2.6 percentage points last month.

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