International Intelligence Bureau: The United States, Japan, and South Korea's "Small Circle" David Camp Summit Threatens East Asian Regional Stability Summit | Leader | International

On August 18th, local time, the summit of the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea will be officially held at Camp David in the suburbs of Washington. It is not uncommon for leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea to appear in the same frame, but this is the first time they have stepped out of a multilateral setting and started a "three person chat" mode.

According to insiders, in addition to discussing strengthening security cooperation among the three countries, Biden hopes to establish a new and annual trilateral summit mechanism through this "Camp David diplomacy" to build a solid "US Japan South Korea Triangle Alliance".

Analysis suggests that if regular consultations become a reality, the United States, Japan, and South Korea are likely to become de facto "quasi allies". The United States will also accelerate the pace of building a small NATO in East Asia, which will inevitably endanger peace and stability in the region.

The ideal plan of "Camp David Diplomacy"

As early as May this year, US President Biden proposed to hold a summit between the United States, Japan, and South Korea during the G7 summit held in Hiroshima, Japan. Subsequently, the US government actively made preparations. On August 14th, the foreign ministers of the three countries also held a video meeting to pave the way for the summit.

The Wall Street Journal reported that this summit is the first separate meeting among the leaders of the three countries outside of international multilateral settings. Meanwhile, this is also the first time during Biden's tenure that he has hosted foreign leaders at Camp David, reflecting the United States' emphasis on trilateral relations.

It is worth noting that the United States has carefully chosen to host the summit at Camp David, the presidential resort. According to the Associated Press, compared to the White House, Camp David has a more relaxed atmosphere and stronger privacy, which can demonstrate the trust relationship between leaders and facilitate discussions on a wide range of issues among the three parties.

Regarding the content of the meeting, according to Reuters citing anonymous senior US government officials, the trilateral leader meeting will launch a series of joint initiatives in the fields of technology, education, and defense, and will develop new defense steps to enhance "collective security".

·The US, Japan, and South Korea summit will reach a consensus on holding trilateral talks annually;

·The Japanese Self Defense Force and the armies of the United States and South Korea plan to hold joint military exercises across different branches every year;

·We will reach multiple agreements on strengthening the sharing of confidential intelligence, cooperation in the network field, and economic security cooperation;

·The "Camp David Principles" document containing a comprehensive strategy will be published

Foreign media believe that although the leaders of the three countries are unlikely to make a joint commitment in terms of mutual defense, they will agree to reach mutual understanding on regional responsibilities and establish a "trilateral summit hotline" for communication during "crisis times".

In the view of US Ambassador to Japan Emmanuel, "When the United States, Japan, and South Korea step in sync, it will fundamentally change the strategic landscape."

However, some US officials also believe that "there are too many requirements to fully expect the establishment of a tripartite security framework - this is a bridge that is too far away." US officials are more eager to take measures to bring the three countries closer in the field of security to enhance "collective security.".

The Three Eyes Alliance has its own thoughts

Regarding the David Camp meeting, the Associated Press quoted sources as saying that at that time, US President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol will hold a casual style meeting, without wearing a suit or tie, and will also take a walk and have lunch together.

These scenes may seem harmonious and intimate, but in reality, the three parties have their own thoughts and interests, making it difficult to resonate with each other.

Even before the start of the Camp David summit, there was already a dispute between the United States and Japan over the disputed terms of the Indo Pacific Economic Framework.

According to the Financial Times, Japan has a long history of commercial whaling. The US trade representative has been pressuring the Japanese government to accept the anti whaling language in the Indo Pacific Economic Framework, but this move has angered Japan.

Japanese officials have threatened that if the Indo Pacific Economic Framework includes any provisions prohibiting whaling, Japan may withdraw from the framework.

In addition, although the relationship between Japan and South Korea appears to be warming up on the surface, it has not been frozen in a day, and the relationship between the two countries has always been a "weakness" in the trilateral relationship between the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

In May 2023, the leaders of South Korea and Japan resumed their "shuttle diplomacy" after a 12 year hiatus. However, there are still controversies between the two sides regarding historical issues such as the discharge of Fukushima nuclear wastewater into the sea and Japan's forced recruitment of South Korean labor during World War II. The two countries will not easily shake hands and make peace as they wish.

South Korean citizens are also very dissatisfied with Yoon Seok yeol's actions of pleasing the United States and Japan. A South Korean netizen roast on social media that "everything is given to the United States and Japan, the country is heavily indebted, and the national dignity has really fallen to the bottom."

According to Christopher Johnstone, a Japan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in the United States, cited by Reuters, although the US government is seeking assistance in reconciling Tokyo and Seoul, progress is still very slow.

"In South Korea, President Yoon Seok yeol's efforts have not been widely welcomed by the public. In Japan, people have always been skeptical about whether this improvement can last, and... future presidents may once again reverse their stance," Johnstone said.

The Ambition Behind the Small NATO in East Asia

According to the Associated Press, as the situation in the Pacific region becomes increasingly complex, the White House hopes to build on the diplomatic foundation it has recently gained, use this summit to deepen and strengthen cooperation among the three countries, and institutionalize the habits of trilateral cooperation.

The White House has previously stated that the three sides will discuss expanding trilateral cooperation in the Indo Pacific region, including strengthening ties with ASEAN and Pacific islands, as well as addressing the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

But the exact expression of this content may not be finalized until the very last moment.

Analysis shows that with the help of summit diplomacy, the US government's ambition to frequently stir up the security situation in the Asia Pacific region has become clear: the US is attempting to create a small NATO in East Asia.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov once pointed out bluntly that the purpose of the United States and NATO's efforts to promote militarization in the Asia Pacific is to contain China and Russia, which poses significant risks to strategic stability in the Asia Pacific region.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin responded to this on August 15th, stating that China opposes relevant countries piecing together various small circles, intensifying confrontation, and undermining the strategic security of other countries. China hopes that relevant countries will follow the trend of development of the times and do more things that are conducive to regional peace, stability, and prosperity.