In fact, acquiescence, allies condemn the United States for providing cluster bombs to Ukraine? Jin Yinan: On the surface condemning ammunition | Ukraine | United States

The US government has recently announced a new military aid plan to Ukraine, which includes large lethal cluster ammunition classified as prohibited by US law. This move has caused widespread controversy and concern in the international community, and even some close allies of the United States have publicly expressed a lack of support. Even some public opinion believes that this controversial decision by the United States will lead to the division of NATO. So, why does the United States insist on breaking through its own legal constraints and providing cluster ammunition to Ukraine? What impact will this move have on the current situation in Russia and Ukraine? Stay tuned for the Southern Military Forum on National Defense Time and Space.

Data image: US made CBU-105 cluster ammunition

Li Yue:

After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States continued to "pour oil into the fire", continued to increase its military assistance to Ukraine, and recently announced that it would provide Ukraine with 155mm M864 cluster bombs. This decision immediately faced strong opposition from the international community, and even many allies of the United States felt unable to agree with it. Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Rovles said that providing cluster ammunition to Ukraine was a decision made by the United States rather than NATO, and Spain opposes providing certain weapons, including cluster ammunition, to Ukraine under any circumstances. British Prime Minister Sunak stated that the UK is a signatory to the Convention on Cluster Munitions and "does not encourage the use" of such weapons. In addition, countries such as Germany, Canada, New Zealand, and Austria have also expressed opposition. Former US President Trump issued a statement on social media on Tuesday, strongly criticizing the decision to provide cluster bombs to Ukraine as further dragging the United States into World War III. Professor Yinan, what exactly is cluster ammunition and how harmful is it?

Jin Yinan: Cluster ammunition, also known as cluster bombs, has a different damage method than regular bombs. After an explosion, a typical bomb causes damage through flying shrapnel, with a limited range of damage. Even the maximum caliber 155mm howitzer has a killing radius of only about 50 meters. After being dropped, a cluster bomb will separate dozens or even hundreds of small bombs. The small bombs will roll around, and each bomb will explode separately to cause damage, so the killing area of the cluster bomb is very large. The United States extensively used cluster bombs in the Gulf War of 1991 and the Iraq War of 2003, carrying out carpet style bombings on target troops with great power.

At the same time, some countries also tamper with the fuses of cluster bombs by delaying them. When the cluster bombs are dropped and do not explode, when they will explode, and how long they will be delayed are unknown. It is even possible that by the end of the war, the small bombs of the cluster bombs will not explode. It is like an unknown time bomb that can explode at any time, causing great harm to the restoration of local economic and social development and people's normal lives. So the United Nations passed the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits the use of cluster ammunition.

Data image: US F-35 fighter jet

Li Yue:

In fact, on the issue of whether to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine, the United States made a diametrically opposite statement a year ago. The then White House press secretary Pasaki explicitly said that the use of unconventional weapons, including cluster bombs, in the Russia-Ukraine conflict might constitute a war crime. But a year later, the United States broke through its own legal constraints and publicly announced that it would provide cluster ammunition to Ukraine. In this regard, some public opinion believes that the US move will not only threaten the safety of Ukrainian civilians, but may even weaken the moral high ground occupied by the West in the conflict. Some netizens also expressed that this incident once again demonstrates the "double standards" of the United States to the world. Professor Yinan, in such a public opinion environment, why did the Biden administration of the United States take the risk of providing cluster ammunition to Ukraine?

Jin Yinan: On the issue of whether to use cluster munitions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the attitude of the United States has changed significantly. The main reason is to cover up its dilemma of insufficient conventional arms production capacity. In June this year, the Secretary of the United States Army said that we should draw a lesson from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ring an alarm bell, that is, our industrial capacity is not yet developed. Why did he say that? Mainly because the current production capacity of conventional weapons in the United States is severely insufficient. Americans themselves believe that the reason for the shortage of production capacity is that the US military industry is now monopolized by the five major military industrial complexes, namely Thor, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman, which control the US military production. And these five major arms giants are more enthusiastic about manufacturing expensive, visually appealing weapons and equipment, and selling them to the world. For example, the F-35 fighter jet, which costs over 100 million US dollars. It can be said that the research and development and production of these cutting-edge weapons have seriously squeezed the production capacity of conventional ammunition, to the extent that the United States has experienced a situation where conventional ammunition has been depleted by Ukraine and the stock is seriously insufficient.

From another perspective, the United States did not expect that with the strong military support of NATO, Russia was still not defeated, and the battlefield situation was developing towards a long-term direction. But it is too late for the United States to start increasing conventional ammunition production capacity again. For arms giants, they feel it's not cost-effective and believe that the money they make is too limited. Small arms companies require personnel training and the establishment of corresponding production lines, industrial chains, etc. However, without two or three years, it is impossible to establish a decent ammunition production line. So it decided to provide cluster ammunition to Ukraine to make up for the shortage of ammunition on the Ukrainian battlefield. Because if we don't provide enough shells to Ukraine anymore, it will be difficult for Ukraine to support even its defense, let alone counterattack.

Li Yue:

After the United States made a commitment to provide cluster ammunition to Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu responded on the 11th that once the United States provides cluster ammunition to Ukraine, Russian armed forces will be forced to use similar destructive methods against Ukrainian armed forces, in retaliation. He also stated that Russia also possesses cluster ammunition, which is "more effective" than the United States' cluster ammunition.

Of course, the voices opposing the United States are not only from outside the Western camp, but even the mainstream voices in Western public opinion generally believe that cluster bombs are very cruel weapons and should be avoided as much as possible. Prior to the Vilnius NATO summit, German media reported that the US decision to provide cluster bombs to Ukraine was widely questioned as it attempted to reach an agreement with allies on aid through the NATO summit, which could potentially split NATO. Professor Yinan, will the provision of cluster ammunition by the United States to Ukraine change the battlefield situation between Russia and Ukraine? Will the relevant actions of the United States become a trigger for the division of NATO, as Western media are concerned?

Jin Yinan: Cluster ammunition can indeed alleviate the current shortage of ammunition in Ukraine, but the current battlefield situation cannot be reversed as a result. It can only increase Russia's attack on Ukraine.

At the same time, NATO cannot be divided internally due to US aid to Ukraine for cluster ammunition. Although the UK, Germany, and France have all condemned this move by the US, it is worth considering the Western statement as a performance. Because they are well aware that if they do not provide cluster ammunition, it will be difficult for the Ukrainian army to sustain themselves. But these countries also have to worry about the votes of their voters, and they must make the above statement. They do not want to be so blatant as the United States, and they hope to have a "fig leaf" to cover up their true intentions. Therefore, on the surface, it appears to be condemnation, but in reality, it is tacit approval. Therefore, this issue will not cause significant waves or divide NATO at the NATO summit.