Impact on 2 billion people in Asia, research: Himalayan glaciers may melt 80% of the ecosystem by the end of this century | ICIMOD | Adaptation | Systems | Kush | Himalayan | Frozen | Glaciers

On June 20, the eight-member International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development released a heavyweight new assessment report, revealing that the changes in glaciers, snow and permafrost in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region due to global warming are "unprecedented and mostly irreversible". If greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced, 80% of the total volume of glaciers in the region will disappear by the end of this century.

The study draws on the latest scientific advances to map for the first time the links between the cryosphere, water, biodiversity and society in the region, as well as the impact of rapid changes in glaciers and snow cover on people and nature. The report warns that glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region are melting 65 percent faster between 2011 and 2020 than in the previous decade, and that the likelihood of flash floods and avalanches in the region is increasing in the coming years.

The glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region are an important water source for rivers that flow through 16 countries in Asia, providing fresh water for 240 million people in mountainous areas and 1.65 billion people downstream. The report warns that due to the impact of climate change, policymakers need to be prepared for the "cascading effects" on key mountain biological communities, which will affect a quarter of the world's population.

Two herdsmen and a group of yaks walk on the snowy plateau. The livelihoods of pastoralists are challenging, but crucial for the local economy of the entire Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Photo by Wu Ning

Accelerated loss of Himalayan glaciers

The report found that if we follow the current emission trajectory, 80% of the total volume of glaciers in the region will disappear by the end of this century. In high emission scenarios, snow cover is expected to decrease by up to a quarter - freshwater in major rivers such as the Amu Darya River, which accounts for 74% of river flow, the Indus River, which accounts for 40%, and the Helmand River, which accounts for 77% of freshwater. At the same time, the range of frozen soil is decreasing, which will lead to more problems, such as landslides and the impact on high-altitude infrastructure.

The study warns that communities and governments need emergency support and funding to address the accelerated impact of the warming of the cryosphere on society and nature. The current flow of funds to the region is far from sufficient to cope with the scale of challenges that the region will face. Scientists predict that water and food security, energy, ecosystems, and the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people in Asia will be severely affected, many of whom will exceed their adaptation limits.

The report was released after cryosphere scientists warned about the speed and scale of global ice melting at the Bonn Climate Change Conference, far exceeding the worst-case predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A new paper shows that Arctic waters may lose all late summer sea ice as early as 2030.

Isabella Kozier, Deputy Director General of ICIMOD, said, "Climate scientists are shocked by the observations of the Arctic and the anomalies we see elsewhere in the cryosphere. Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region are an important component of the Earth's system. Asia has 2 billion people who rely on the glaciers and snowmelt here, and the consequences of losing this cryosphere are unimaginable. We need leaders to take immediate action to prevent disasters from happening."

"There is still time to save this critical area, but the prerequisite is to start rapidly and deeply reducing emissions now. Every one degree Celsius increase is crucial for the glaciers here and the hundreds of millions of people who rely on glaciers for their livelihoods. As this study shows, in addition to taking emergency mitigation actions, we also need to quickly increase our efforts in adaptation funds and programs, as well as in ecosystem restoration work, and mobilize funds for losses and damage," Kozier said.

Khumra people from Nepal. Jitendra Raj Bajracharya/ICIMOD camera

Extreme events will hit vulnerable communities

The ice and snow melt water of the Hindu Kush Himalayas flows through Asia and is an important source of water for 12 rivers in 16 countries in the region. It provides fresh water for 240 million mountain residents and 1.65 billion downstream people, and plays a crucial role in other important ecosystems.

Fragile mountain communities have suffered significant adverse effects, including disasters that cause loss and damage to residents' lives, property, cultural heritage, and infrastructure, resulting in displacement, and having profound psychological impacts on those who bear all of this.

Amina Mahajan, Senior Livelihood Expert at ICIMOD, said, "The current adaptation efforts are completely inadequate to address the challenges brought about by cryosphere changes. What we are very certain about now is that extreme events will hit these already fragile communities on a larger scale and more complex. We are very concerned that without greater support, these communities will not be able to cope, so there is an urgent need to expand adaptation efforts."

The study found that, driven by the acceleration of glacier melting, the available water in the region is expected to peak by the middle of this century and then decline. Changes in glacier and snow melt water will bring enormous uncertainty to the population of mountainous and lowland areas.

Tiricho Lake is one of the highest lakes in the world, located in the Annapurna Peak area of southern Nepal, with an altitude of 4919 meters. Raksha Roy/ICIMOD camera

It is expected that in the coming decades, the frequency and destructive nature of floods and landslides will increase, and gradual and sudden disasters usually occur simultaneously in the same watershed. Experts believe that 200 glacial lakes in the Kush Himalayan region of the new capital are in a dangerous state, and by the end of this century, the risk of glacial lake outburst floods in the region may significantly increase. In addition, with population growth and increased economic activity in the region, these disasters will bring greater risks of loss and damage.

The report found that the constantly changing cryosphere has a particularly severe impact on fragile mountain habitats, with most ecosystems reported to have cascading impacts that affect the majority of species that rely on this habitat. The content also includes: species decline and extinction, trend of species migration to high altitudes, ecosystem degradation, decline in habitat suitability, and invasion of alien species.

Located in the Kush Himalayan region of Xindu, covering 67% of the ecological area and 39% of the four global biodiversity hotspots are still outside protected areas, making nature particularly vulnerable to climate issues.

Professor Salim Hook, Director of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh and member of the Advisory Committee for the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, said, "In all three pillars of climate action - mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage - we are all at a standstill or going the wrong way; and the consequences of inaction are accelerating. This report focuses on the destructive effects this will have on nature, including 2 billion people and those dependent on water and ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya. It is now time for governments, donors, and institutions to intensify their actions: phasing out fossil fuels, fulfilling their commitments to limit global warming, helping communities adapt to the warming impacts that have already occurred, and addressing the loss of property and..." Compensate for the affected way of survival

Pam Pearson, Director General of the International Frozen Circle Climate Initiative, said, "Since the Paris Agreement, the science of the cryosphere has made tremendous progress. It is only today that we understand what was not fully understood at the time: the response of ice to temperature rise is faster and more difficult to reverse than previously imagined. It is crucial for governments and civil society to realize that even if a warming of only 1.5 degrees Celsius occurs, it will have an extreme impact on the cryosphere. Because it is very clear that the lives of billions of people now depend on our urgent pursuit of extremely low emission pathways. This is the only way to mitigate or avoid catastrophic impacts."