If the conflict refuses to take sides, European polls on China are vastly different from those in the United States! More people believe that China is a partner competitor | China | United States

According to Time magazine, this coincides with French President Macron's statement in April this year that "Europe should not be involved in the Taiwan Strait dispute," despite criticism from some officials in the United States and the European Union at the time. The reality of European public opinion refusing to bind the US strategy towards China has left some media feeling frustrated. The US National Review lamented that "Europeans are not reliable allies, and the US has to place its hopes elsewhere.". Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin stated on the 8th, in response to relevant questions, that China and Europe are two major forces, two markets, and two civilizations in a multipolar world. China Europe relations are rooted in a solid foundation of public opinion, broad common interests, and similar strategic demands, and have undergone trials and tribulations, possessing strong resilience and potential. "As the survey results show, China and Europe are partners, not competitors."

"More Europeans support Macron's policy towards China"

According to reports, the European Commission on Foreign Relations conducted a public opinion survey in April this year on a total of 16168 respondents from 11 EU countries, including France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Austria, and Bulgaria. The investigation report was released on the 7th.

The American media is very concerned about this report. The New York Times said that 11 national surveys of Europe showed that the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict had a great impact on Europeans' attitudes towards Russia. About 64% of respondents regarded Russia as a "competitor" or "enemy", up from 36% two years ago. The report states that Europeans have no doubt about the close relationship between Russia and China, but this does not lead them to conclude that Europe should "decouple" from China like Russia. As for the relationship between Europe and China, the survey shows that European respondents prefer Makron's engagement strategy with China in many aspects, rather than the strong and hard policy of European Commission President von der Leyen towards China; Most respondents do not believe that China wants to challenge and undermine Europe, nor do they believe in the so-called "war between democracy and authoritarianism" framework promoted by the Biden administration.

French President Macron, source image

Bloomberg reported that 46% of European respondents believe that China is a "necessary partner" or "ally of shared interests and values" for their own country, with 43% of the former, 24% considering China a "competitor", 11% an "enemy", and 18% answering "I don't know". The report states, "It is surprising that Europeans' views on China have changed little compared to the results of the 2021 public opinion poll."

Deutsche Welle emphasized that even the countries with the most people choosing to support the United States, such as Sweden, Poland, etc., still have at least half of the respondents choosing to remain neutral. Hungary and Bulgaria have a preference for neutrality, with over 70% of respondents hoping to remain neutral, while Austria has an additional 80% of respondents wanting their country to remain neutral.

"This stance has surprised many people," said Radio France International, but some analysts believe that when a real crisis erupts, people's mentality may change. The French newspaper Le Monde commented on the 7th that more than a year after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, most Europeans showed strong realism in the face of geopolitical changes.

The iNews website in the UK stated that the survey results reveal ongoing suspicions between European public opinion and the United States. One of the authors of the report, Jana Prelling, stated, "In a hypothetical Taiwan Strait conflict, the close relationship between Europe and the United States does not translate into a willingness to support the United States in military confrontation with China." "The main takeaway from our investigation is that Europeans want to see the European Union become more self-sufficient in foreign policy."

"Europeans prefer to be outside of the US China dispute"

"Why do most Europeans prefer to stay out of the US China argument?" Time magazine stated on the 7th that in recent months, US and EU officials have attempted to depict a basic united front when talking about China, but their respective citizens are not. In the United States, a recent survey by the Pew Research Center showed that 52% of Americans view China as a competitor and 38% view China as an enemy.

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has repeatedly linked it to the Taiwan issue. "Time" quoted an interview with Pavel Zeka, another author of the ECFR report, as saying that for Europeans, these two issues are incomparable. "The Taiwan issue is still very abstract for European citizens. The war in Ukraine actually happened. We are paying close attention to it near our border, and there has not been any war in distant Taiwan, and there is not much discussion." The New York Times quoted Plelin's comments as saying: "In general, Europeans praise the transatlantic relationship and see more benefits than risks, but they do not believe that this comes with obligations, nor do they believe that the Taiwan issue is related to Ukraine."

On the 7th, the website of the National Review of the United States stated that France has a long history of opposing American preferences and formulating its own path. "If this poll reflects reality, then most Europeans tend to favor France rather than oppose it." The article states, "Any future conflict with China will require the United States' full attention, and we cannot rely on unreliable allies - Europeans with leaders like Macron and hoping to get rid of the United States may be such allies. If they cannot change their minds, the United States may have to rely on elsewhere."

The ECFR report concludes that most Europeans believe that military confrontation between the United States and China is unlikely, and they are not particularly concerned about the economic interdependence between Europe and China. "The general view in almost every country we surveyed is that the risks and benefits of trade and investment relations between Europe and China are balanced, and there is no country where the majority believes that the risks of trade between Europe and China outweigh the benefits." However, the report states that Europeans are cautious about specific aspects of China's economy, such as whether Chinese companies should be allowed to build and own infrastructure in Europe, or purchase media, technology companies, and football clubs. According to an overall survey of 11 countries, only 22% of respondents believe that the economic relationship between the region and China is more risky than profitable.

On the 8th, iNews website in the UK reported that poll results in Europe indicate a possible disconnect between "hawkish leaders in Brussels" and the broader European public on China issues. Two weeks later, the European Commission will release its first set of EU economic security principles. At a time of tense relations between China and the United States, the European Union is attempting to define its geopolitical status in this principle. European Commission President von der Leyen will demonstrate this strategy to leaders of all countries at the summit held in Brussels from June 29 to 30.

"Only 8% of respondents believe that the United States will always protect Europe"

The ECFR report states that 74% of Europeans believe that the European continent should reduce its military dependence on the United States and invest in its own defense capabilities, with the most support in Hungary, the Netherlands, and Germany. Only 8% of European respondents believe that the United States will always protect Europe, so Europe does not need to strengthen its own defense. The Times reported that these contradictions highlight the profound differences in public opinion between Washington and Europe, which may have a significant impact on security, as Europe still relies on the support of the United States.

The German newspaper Berlin Ilbo reported that former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt said at the ECFR annual meeting in Stockholm, "Foreign policy is not determined by opinion polls." The author of the ECFR report, Zeka, stated that in order for Europe to adapt to increasingly fierce international competition, European leaders need public support. "They cannot manage the people against their will, but they cannot simply obey the people."

Cui Hongjian, Director of the Institute of European Studies at the China Academy of International Studies, told Global Times on the 8th that this European poll shows that the recent resumption of China Europe relations and the visits of multiple European leaders to China have had a direct positive effect on public opinion. However, at the same time, the poll also highlights the growing differences in understanding of China among a few political elites and the public in Europe. Some European political elites like to talk about concepts such as "China's challenge" and "the struggle between democracy and authoritarianism", but for the majority of the people, they value the intuitive feeling and practical interests of communication and cooperation with China more.

[Yu Chaofan, a special correspondent of Global Times in France and Germany, and Xin Bin, a special correspondent of Aoki Global Times.]