How far can the rebound of pharmaceutical stocks go?, Multi stock limit up, some innovative high pharmaceutical | high
More than 80% of stocks in the pharmaceutical and biotech sector have achieved gains, with multiple stocks hitting the limit up and some reaching new highs. On August 9th, pharmaceutical stocks rebounded violently. Affected by the anti-corruption measures in the pharmaceutical industry, the pharmaceutical sector has experienced a significant decline in recent times. Previously, securities firms had analyzed that some funds may have reduced their holdings. Several fund managers told First Financial reporters that although the anti-corruption efforts in the pharmaceutical industry may suppress the valuation of the sector in the short term, it will not have a long-term impact on industry demand and is expected to reverse the current situation of the pharmaceutical industry prioritizing sales over academia, promoting innovative products to stand out. "Be wary of companies with sales expense ratios exceeding 50%"
Prior to this rebound, the performance of the pharmaceutical and biotech sector was not impressive. As of the close on the 9th, a total of 323 individual stocks in the sector have fallen since August, with 32 stocks including Pinyin, Olin Biotech, and Jebel experiencing a decline of over 10%. On August 6th, analysts from Debon Securities predicted that the proportion of all funds holding pharmaceutical positions in the second quarter would be around 7%. After about a week of decline and market sentiment venting, the current position ratio may drop to around 5%. The market generally believes that the recent sharp decline in the pharmaceutical sector is closely related to the successive anti-corruption signals issued by regulatory authorities. On July 28th, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the National Supervisory Commission held a mobilization meeting, deploying disciplinary inspection and supervision agencies to cooperate in carrying out centralized rectification of corruption issues in the national pharmaceutical industry; Earlier on July 21st, the official website of the National Health Commission reported that the Commission, together with the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Public Security and other departments, jointly held a video conference to deploy a one-year centralized crackdown on corruption in the national pharmaceutical industry. Huatai Bairui Fund Manager Xie Feng analyzed to First Financial reporters that the sector has been affected by medical anti-corruption in the short term, and the emotional response is relatively intense, with the index continuously falling. In the subsequent implementation process of this medical anti-corruption campaign, there is still a possibility of causing some disturbance to the sentiment of the sector. But if the market continues to decline in the short term, emotions quickly release, risks are fully priced, and trading lows may arrive early. Zhiyu Zhishan Investment Fund Manager He Li reminded, "For drugs that were previously driven by sales, pharmaceutical companies with average quality will face a significant blow, especially those with sales expense ratios exceeding 50%." According to statistics from First Financial News, the median sales expense ratio of 464 listed companies in the A-share pharmaceutical sector is 19.17%, while the overall A-share ratio is only 3.3%. Among them, 39 listed pharmaceutical companies have sales rates exceeding 50%, and 138 companies have sales rates exceeding 30%. Since August, over 20 listed companies have responded to investors' anti-corruption questions on interactive platforms. "Yimeimao" Aimeike stated that the company's products are mainly sold to private medical beauty institutions, and the sales amount in public hospitals is very small. The company's sales expense ratio has always remained at a low level. Medical anti-corruption has no impact on the company's business operations. Mindray Medical, the leading medical device manufacturer, stated that in the context of medical anti-corruption, hospitals will pay more attention to the standardization of procurement processes and the compliance of distributors. And the company has always regarded compliance as the lifeline, and the compliance management of distributors is the strictest in the industry. Mindray Medical also believes that in the long run, rectifying corruption in the medical field is a necessary path to purify the business environment and stimulate the innovation vitality of production enterprises. In the future, the concentration of the industry will continue to increase, and the advantages of the company's brand and product strength will be further highlighted. Capital return
After a period of sharp decline, there seem to be signs of capital backflow. On August 9th, the main funds of A-share market had a net inflow of 2.578 billion yuan into the pharmaceutical and biological sector, of which WuXi AppTec had a net inflow of 131 million yuan. Xie Feng believes that the long-term benefits of medical anti-corruption outweigh the drawbacks for the industry. Medical anti-corruption mainly targets the phenomenon of "selling with gold" in the industry, which also leads to the waste of medical resources and the "expulsion of good coins by bad coins". He further stated that in the future, the diagnosis and treatment behavior of doctors will be more clinical value oriented, and the focus of production enterprises will shift from marketing to research and development. The sales cost rate may decrease, while the research and development cost rate may increase. This is beneficial for both patients and the long-term development of the industry itself. Although individual stock prices in the pharmaceutical sector have experienced significant declines recently, overall, the market's view on healthcare anti-corruption is not entirely pessimistic. In terms of funding, according to exchange data, the net increase in medical ETFs in July was 4.162 billion units, ranking first among the 451 industry themed ETFs in the market in terms of share growth. In addition, the scale of innovative drug ETFs exceeded 10 billion units on August 1st, indicating that market funds still have confidence in the future of the medical sector. Many pharmaceutical companies have also submitted a good interim report. As of August 9th, a total of 28 listed companies in the A-share pharmaceutical and biotech industry have disclosed their semi annual reports. WuXi AppTec's revenue in the first half of the year was 18.871 billion yuan, achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.313 billion yuan, temporarily ranking first in the pharmaceutical and biological industry in terms of net profit attributable to shareholders. Enhua Pharmaceutical and Guobang Pharmaceutical have temporarily ranked second and third with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 545 million and RMB 357 million, respectively. Baolaite's operating revenue in the first half of 2023 was 665 million yuan, with a net profit of 589 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 728.20%, making it the company with the highest net profit growth rate temporarily. Several fund managers also believe in interviews that anti-corruption in healthcare is a normalized task, and the overall stock price and valuation of the pharmaceutical industry are at the bottom. However, the semi annual performance shows a clear recovery trend, so there is no need for overly pessimistic reactions. Huaxia Fund stated that although market confidence is weak in the short term, there may be a mistake in the pharmaceutical industry. But for funds with long-term investment characteristics, it will be a good opportunity. Sui Dong, a wealth researcher at PaiPaiPaiWang, also stated that he remains optimistic about investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector in the long term. Firstly, the pharmaceutical sector may accelerate its bottoming out with the help of this anti-corruption campaign. Secondly, the demand in the pharmaceutical industry is relatively rigid, and with the acceleration of population aging, the improvement of health awareness, and the continuous innovation of the pharmaceutical industry itself, the overall pharmaceutical demand is on the rise. In addition, both in terms of institutional allocation ratio and overall industry valuation level, it is currently at a low level, with significant room for improvement. In its research report on August 7th, Open Source Securities analyzed that in the short term, the speed of new pharmaceutical products entering hospitals may slow down, but in the long run, enterprises will have more motivation and ability to invest in research and development, and the concentration of enterprises with strong innovation and product capabilities is
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