High-end Interview丨Exclusive Interview with IMF President Georgieva

From learning from the experience of other countries to becoming a model for other countries to learn from, she praised China's leading role in climate change, digital economy and other aspects; affirmed the achievements of China's reform and opening up, and she was optimistic about the potential released by green development and digital transformation. "High-end Interview" has an exclusive interview with Kristalina Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund.

Wang Guan: Since the beginning of this year, the International Monetary Fund has raised its global economic growth forecast for this year twice in a row, believing that the global economy continues to show "remarkable" resilience and that the economy is more confident in achieving a "soft landing"; but at the same time, the global Economic growth prospects still face downside risks such as rising prices, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. In this context, how should countries work together to meet the challenges? What factors are critical to promoting global economic development? How to overcome the uneven development problem caused by globalization? What impetus will China's steady economic growth provide for world economic development?

Today’s guest is Kristalina Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund. Let’s find the answer in the conversation.

Wang Guan: Ms. Georgieva, thank you very much for accepting this interview. Welcome to Beijing again.

Georgieva: Thank you very much. It's an honor to be interviewed by you.

Wang Guan: In January this year, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 to 3.1%, slightly higher than the forecast in October last year, and said that the global economy is likely to achieve a "soft landing." How was this conclusion reached? What risks will we face in the future?

Georgieva: We carefully observed the data in two aspects. On the one hand, consumer demand remains strong and government spending also shows strong resilience; on the other hand, we analyze the growth trends of major economies. Our conclusion is that the world economy still shows strong resilience. Despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine crisis, high inflation, and high interest rates, the world economy is actually performing better than we expected a year ago. We also note two important trends: first, in many economies, inflation rates that soared last year are declining; second, the job market is fairly stable. what does that mean? It means that people have jobs and have money to spend. The result is further strengthening of growth expectations. However, central banks still have a arduous task. The world economy is expected to have a "soft landing", but it has not yet landed. Central banks of various countries need to accurately regulate their monetary policies based on data and decide the timing and extent of interest rate cuts. They cannot simply follow the practices of other central banks because the current economic conditions of each country are different. In addition, this is a difficult time for fiscal authorities in various countries. After years of big spending, they now need to rebuild their fiscal buffers. At the same time, countries’ green and digital transformation also require financial support. So looking at the overall situation, although the economy is growing positively, it is still relatively weak. In recent years, the global economic growth rate has continued to remain at around 3%, which is far lower than the pre-epidemic average level of 3.8%. Therefore, although we can breathe a sigh of relief because the economy is improving, policymakers in various countries still face challenges.

The International Monetary Fund, referred to as the IMF, was established in 1945 and currently has 190 member countries. The organization is committed to promoting monetary cooperation, trade development and economic growth among its member countries.

Georgieva is the first female managing director from Eastern Europe since the establishment of the International Monetary Fund. She taught at the University of National and World Economy in Sofia, Bulgaria. He worked at the World Bank in 1993 and later served on the European Commission. Georgieva has rich experience in the fields of international development and finance and has visited and worked in more than 60 countries.

Wang Guan: Can you introduce the International Monetary Fund and its functions to our audience?

Georgieva: The International Monetary Fund has 190 member countries and is committed to promoting mutual support among member countries. When any country encounters difficulties, it can turn to the International Monetary Fund for help. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund also guides the policy formulation of various countries, including monetary policy, fiscal policy and financial policy, to ensure that we will not be threatened by a financial crisis. We were like…

Wang Guan: It’s like a large medical institution that provides physical examination services.

Georgieva: This metaphor is very appropriate. As you described, we visit each member country every year to conduct a "physical examination" of their economies. Then we might say that your "blood pressure" is a little high and you need to take measures to lower it.

Wang Guan: Regarding global trade, there are many opinions now, such as "short chain", "friendly shore outsourcing" and "risk removal". Many people believe that such an approach is not based on economic considerations, but on ideological and geopolitical considerations. As an economist and professional, what do you think about this?

Georgieva: Promoting supply chain diversification makes sense. None of us want to be in a situation where we are helpless if a natural disaster cuts off supply chains. But some concerns, such as concerns that the domestic economy is overly dependent on foreign suppliers, are overblown. As an economist, what I want to emphasize is that we need division of labor and we need trade. In this way, we can reduce production and consumption costs, increase the variety of available goods, create more opportunities for people around the world, and improve their living standards.

Wang Guan: You gave a speech in Cambridge under the title "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren" and proposed two scenarios for the next hundred years, and they were two completely different scenarios, one with a relatively low goal and the other with an ambitious goal. Can you explain it in detail for our viewers?

Georgieva: The speech was inspired by John Maynard Keynes. He wrote about his vision for the lives of his descendants during the Great Depression of the 1930s. One hundred years later, his prediction came true. Technological development and capital accumulation increased people's living standards eightfold. Now, a hundred years later, people are living longer and healthier, with more opportunities and a higher standard of living. If we work together and work together, the global economy in a century will be 13 times larger than it is today. I am an optimist and I believe that my granddaughter will live in a more prosperous world.

Wang Guan: This is exactly what we all hope and expect. Let’s talk about China. The Chinese government has recently introduced a series of policies aimed at stimulating economic growth and boosting global investor confidence, including policies released during the China Development Forum and the Two Sessions. How do you evaluate the boosting effect of this policy "combination" on economic growth?

Georgieva: In the past 40 years, China has made remarkable achievements. Reform and opening up has brought huge rewards to the Chinese people. Looking ahead, deepening reforms is expected to unleash the growth potential of green development and digital transformation. I firmly believe that the combination of market forces and resource allocation can effectively increase capital productivity and labor productivity, thereby driving economic growth. Today, China is shifting from high-speed development to high-quality development. As far as I know, the Chinese leadership is determined to deepen reforms, which will also bring a new round of prosperity and development to the Chinese people.

Wang Guan: You may have heard the term "new productivity", Ms. Georgieva. It has become a hot word at recent policy meetings in China. This concept was proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping. How do you evaluate the role of new productive forces in China's economy shifting to high-quality development?

Georgieva: Currently, China is investing heavily in the green economy and digital economy to create a level playing field for state-owned and private enterprises. This general direction is correct. Looking around the world, and this is why I am speaking in Cambridge, what is missing in the world today? There is a lack of productivity growth and, on that basis, improvements in living standards. How can we re-energize productivity growth? It depends on embracing the power of technology and investing in human capital. China is in a good position in this regard.

Wang Guan: Do you believe that China will inspire "new" power?

Georgieva: Today, it is very meaningful to witness China's development. I think the Chinese people are coming to an important moment. You are benefiting from phenomenal growth. A whole generation of Chinese people have only seen the economy grow, grow, grow, and their incomes have doubled and doubled. Of course, growth cannot continue indefinitely. Because like any other country, when the economy gradually matures, it will inevitably experience a transition from high-speed growth to high-quality growth. I think it is important for the Chinese people to realize that China's development is entering a new era. In this era, economic growth will not be 10%, 12% or 15%, but various opportunities will increase significantly and living standards will also improve.

China is one of the founding countries of the International Monetary Fund. China has maintained good cooperation with the International Monetary Fund for a long time. On October 1, 2016, the RMB officially joined the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights currency basket, joining the U.S. dollar, euro, pound sterling and Japanese yen among the global reserve currencies, becoming the third largest weight after the U.S. dollar and the euro. currency. For the first time, emerging economies appeared in the "basket" of the Special Drawing Rights, and they are no longer a "club of developed countries".

The inclusion of the RMB into the basket is a reflection of China's active participation in global governance and its positive contribution to world development. With the improvement of its comprehensive national strength, China is increasingly participating in the construction of a new international governance system. Initiating the establishment of multilateral financial institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank, these "China solutions" have received praise and support from the international community, especially developing countries.

Wang Guan: You have visited China many times. You are the first IMF Managing Director from an economy in transition. You have also observed China's development from multiple angles and multiple platforms. What do you think of Chinese-style modernization and its significance to developing countries?

Georgieva: China's success lies not only in improving people's living standards, but also in allowing all people to share the fruits of development. China is committed to eradicating poverty and allowing people to live a dignified life, whether in cities or rural areas. According to my observation, China's great changes over the years have benefited the people, including those who are in very difficult situations. The experiences we have learned from China and passed on to other countries include: setting medium and long-term goals, investing in infrastructure construction, promoting talent cultivation, improving the rule of law, and improving competitiveness, thereby creating opportunities and allowing people to unleash their greatest potential. Do you know what’s most interesting? I have visited many countries around the world and I have seen that China’s development model is being copied elsewhere. For example, China’s Loess Plateau terracing project successfully turned wasteland into arable farmland, allowing locals to make a living, and I saw similar projects in Ethiopia. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, where I worked before, are transmitters of China's experience. We try to translate China's achievements into knowledge and success stories for other parts of the world.

Wang Guan: You have emphasized the importance of international cooperation on many occasions on different occasions. You also emphasized this in your speech at Cambridge University, which coincides with the views of Chinese leaders. The initiatives proposed by President Xi Jinping to the world have built China's global governance concepts, including global development initiatives, global security initiatives, global civilization initiatives, and the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind. How do you evaluate China's role in the development of multilateralism?

Georgieva: China is an active participant in the international community and the International Monetary Fund. China's actions are based on its own experience. Over the years, China has learned from and benefited from multilateral institutions with many member states. Now, China supports other countries in learning. In the International Monetary Fund, China actively participates in discussions on appropriate policy options, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial policy, etc. During the epidemic, China contributed to the International Monetary Fund and provided support to our member countries that need help most. China has also played an important leading role on issues that are crucial to the future of mankind, such as climate change, digital economy, and promoting global economic integration. China, which once learned from the experiences of other countries, has now become a model for other countries to learn from.

Wang Guan: Regarding artificial intelligence, you once said that the current generative artificial intelligence can inject new vitality into the global economy, which you called the "big bang" moment. How do you view the prospects and risks of artificial intelligence?

Georgieva: We are facing the challenges of low productivity and slow growth, and we need solutions. Artificial intelligence may be a key part of the solution. It can significantly increase productivity. We recommend taking action early to prepare for a world in which artificial intelligence will play an increasingly important role. We need to focus on the following four aspects: digital infrastructure construction, talent cultivation, promoting innovation, and corresponding regulations and ethical requirements. Taken together, what I can tell you is that China is the most prepared among emerging market countries.

Wang Guan: Madam President, when it comes to climate change, the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change concluded in Dubai, and a consensus was reached at the meeting. Are you satisfied with this consensus? How do you evaluate China's efforts in combating climate change?

Georgieva: The 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference was very successful and reached three very important consensuses. First, the meeting clearly pointed out that the emission reduction commitments and efforts of various countries are not enough to prevent the climate crisis. Currently, countries are raising their emission reduction targets, especially in this decade, and China is doing the same. Secondly, regarding financing, this conference pointed out that large-scale financing for green transformation must be carried out quickly, especially in emerging markets and developing economies, and action cannot be delayed. Third, the conference strengthened international solidarity. Countries realize that blaming each other will not help, and we should join hands to face challenges together. Only by working together can we turn the situation around. China has assumed important responsibilities in technological innovation in solar photovoltaics, renewable energy, electric vehicles and other fields, and China has become a leader.

Wang Guan: Our netizen audience, especially Millennials and Generation Z, they have some questions to ask you. They want to know that you have visited China many times. What impressed you and what moved you?

Georgieva: What impresses me most is China’s ubiquitous vitality. People throw themselves into their work and solve problems. I see the country changing every time I visit. There is a new ring road here, new opportunities are emerging there, more jobs and a higher standard of living. This is incredible. What China has achieved is incredible! I always enjoy interacting with Chinese people, whether they are leaders or ordinary people. I can also tell you that no one is more hospitable than the Chinese. What a great experience!

Wang Guan: The audience also wants to know, what is your favorite Chinese food, and what is it about Chinese culture that particularly attracts you?

Georgieva: When it comes to food, my answer may be boring, but I really like Peking duck.

Georgieva: I also like hot pot very much. I have learned how to cook hot pot. I also want to give hot pot to my family in Bulgaria. This experience is really great! Everyone sat together and cooked and ate.

Wang Guan: You should visit southern China, such as Chongqing and Chengdu, to try authentic spicy hot pot.

Georgieva: I also heard that if you want to eat spicy hot pot, you should go to these places. I also particularly like the Chinese New Year celebrations, which are so colorful. Even a serious person like me can be affected by this, which is great!

The Crown: Ms. Georgieva, thank you very much for the interview, and it's great to see you again.

Georgieva, President of the International Monetary Fund, wrote an inscription after accepting an exclusive interview with the main station: Thank you for your column for giving me an opportunity to communicate with a broad audience, so that we can look forward to a brighter future in a united world.

——Kristalina Georgieva

In an exclusive interview, Georgieva said that she was deeply impressed by China's development achievements, the vitality of Chinese society, and the enthusiasm of the Chinese people. She believes that China is an active contributor to the international community and an important participant in the International Monetary Fund; in areas such as climate change, digital economy, and promoting global economic integration, China has played a pivotal leading role and provided other countries with Cases that can be learned and learned from.

Director | Gu Xuejia, Gao Yushan, Qian Siyu, Qi Jingkang, Hu Jie

Post-production丨Qian Ziqi Li Hao Zhang Ningyu Li Xuchen