Has this pair of 157 year old enemies been spared?, For next year's US presidential election, Trump | Biden | the presidential election
77 year old Trump and 80 year old Biden, this pair of old enemies, have been feeling uneasy these days because the other camp has taken action again.
On the 28th US time, Trump stated on a program that even if he is convicted of criminal charges, he will continue to run in the 2024 presidential election because "there are no provisions in the US Constitution.".
According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 27th, Smith, a special prosecutor appointed by the US Department of Justice, made new charges against Trump for "improper handling of classified documents". The prosecution accused him of instructing his subordinates to delete the surveillance footage of his private residence at Haihu Manor. The prosecution also added an accusation against Trump of intentionally retaining state secrets. Previously, he faced 37 charges in this case. Trump insists that every investigation against him constitutes "political persecution".
According to the Congressional Hill, on the 24th local time, US House Speaker McCarthy publicly threatened that the investigation by House Republicans into President Biden's family's overseas business activities may rise to the level of an impeachment investigation.
Today, it was reported that Biden has publicly admitted for the first time that his son Hunter Biden's 4-year-old illegitimate daughter, Neville Roberts, is his granddaughter.
The competition between the two parties in the United States around the 2024 US election is gradually intensifying, and the protagonist is still the two old enemies of the 2020 election. Now it seems that neither Trump nor Biden has the upper hand? Chao News invites Wang Chong, Director of the Center for American Studies at Zhejiang University of Foreign Languages, to interpret this drama for you.
Trendy news: We see that Trump is very optimistic about his candidacy prospects. Can the "improper handling of confidential documents" case really stop him from participating in the 2024 election?
Wang Chong: Trump's optimism is reasonable. Due to improper handling of classified documents, the responsibilities involved can vary greatly. Strictly speaking, he is inappropriate, inappropriate, and inappropriate, rather than committing a crime. So it is very difficult to completely defeat Trump and send him to prison based on this point.
Trendy news: If Trump can become president for the second time, can the US Department of Justice pardon him for his crimes?
Wang Chong: According to American law, the President can pardon anyone, including himself. But in American history, no president has ever said he wants to pardon himself. The closest thing is that after the Watergate scandal, Nixon was investigated and found to have a problem, so he chose to step down and avoid being impeached or even imprisoned. Afterwards, Nixon's Vice President Ford pardoned him after becoming president.
If Trump pardons himself during his tenure, he will face ethical issues, criticism from political opponents, and public criticism. But legally speaking, he can do so.
Trendy news: Trump has always claimed that the accusations and investigations against him are "political persecution", is this a fact? Now, does the Democratic Party see Trump as its biggest competitor?
Wang Chong: "Political persecution" is a term used by Trump to describe himself as a victim in order to win people's sympathy, but in reality, it is part of the struggle between the two parties. The Democratic Party is now about to defeat Trump, while the Republican Party is also trying to impeach Biden, which is an important concrete manifestation of political polarization in the United States.
Now, the Democratic Party definitely sees Trump as its biggest competitor in next year's election, because recent polls show that Trump's approval rating is far ahead within the Republican Party - around 40%, while De Santis and Haley, who are behind him, are less than 10%. Trump can be said to be on top of the crowd. A poll released on June 27th showed that Trump led Biden by 3 percentage points, marking the first time since the poll began tracking in December 2022 that Trump's approval rating has surpassed Biden. So without a doubt, Trump is the most worried person in the Democratic Party's 2024 election.
Trendy news: House Speaker McCarthy threatened that the investigation into Biden and his family's overseas business activities may escalate to impeachment. What is the connection between this matter and Trump's multiple accusations?
Wang Chong: We know that the Republican Party's pro establishment camp has always had conflicts with Trump, but now it seems that because Trump has too much advantage within the party, Republican leaders should stand on Trump's side and help him regain the presidency. And this kind of impeachment against Biden is actually used by the Republican side as a bargaining chip to hedge against the risk of the Democratic Party's lawsuit against Trump. The two sides are likely to negotiate behind closed doors, with everyone taking a step back. This way, Biden and his family can avoid embarrassing themselves and pave the way for Trump's candidacy.
You see, this is the essence of American election competition. As the saying goes, the US election is a competition between two bad guys, not about who is better, as long as you are not the worst. So, smearing the opponent is the best way, which means "offense is the best defense.".
Faced with Trump's current situation of being plagued by lawsuits, the Republican Party has also launched a counterattack at the House level, aiming to expose Biden's age issues, as well as his son's economic and personal life issues, to the public.
Trendy news: From the latest evolution of the situation, which party will have the upper hand in next year's election?
Wang Chong: It is too early to say who has the advantage between the two parties. We need to see the economic performance of the United States at that time, as well as the situation on the Russian Ukrainian battlefield. These two factors may be the decisive factors determining the direction of the 2024 election. If high interest rates cannot suppress high inflation, the economy will falter, and if US aid on the Russia Ukraine battlefield does not result in Ukrainian military victories, then it is definitely not good news for the Democratic Party.