Harmful to others but not self-interest, the "small circle" of the United States, Japan, and South Korea, Biden | United States | small circle

Wen | Su Yangfan

On August 18th local time, US President Biden met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol at Camp David at the US Presidential Palace, and stated that they had taken an important step towards a trilateral military and economic partnership. This is the first time leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea have met outside a major international summit, and it is also the first time since Biden took office that he has invited other leaders to Camp David.

During the meeting, the three sides discussed numerous foreign policy objectives and ultimately reached the Camp David principle, agreeing to expand security and economic cooperation among the three countries, institutionalize cooperation in multiple areas such as regional security, and maintain close communication.

Zhang Tengjun, Deputy Director of the Institute of American Studies at the China Academy of International Studies, pointed out to reporters that in the past two years, the Biden administration has continuously deepened and implemented its "Indo Pacific" strategy, establishing multiple small multilateral groups. The United States hopes to fill the gap in Northeast Asia through its alliance with Japan and South Korea. At the same time, from a military perspective, if the United States, Japan, and South Korea can be integrated into the framework of the United States, Japan, and South Korea, it will be possible to achieve absolute dominance of the United States in trilateral relations, thereby effectively promoting the military strategic deployment of the United States in Northeast Asia. "This not only strengthens and extends North Korea's deterrence, but also further checks and balances China's influence."

Professor and Dean of the Institute of American and East Asian Studies at Liaoning University, Lv Chao, believes that there is still an old shadow of disharmony in the trilateral relationship between the United States, Japan, and South Korea. "Japan and South Korea have actually achieved the so-called alliance relationship, or further strengthened friendly relations, through the mediation of the United States. However, it may not be accepted within the two countries, especially since there is still serious opposition between their nationals. In this situation, it is difficult to say that there will be more substantive cooperation between Japan and South Korea.".

1

The "selfishness" of the Biden administration

In the preparation stage of the trilateral summit, the meeting venue chosen by the Biden administration has attracted external attention. According to the official website of the White House, the official name of Camp David located in the Katokting Mountains of Frederick County, Maryland is the Thurmont Naval Support Facility, which is the rural residence of the President of the United States. Camp David was first used for diplomatic reception in May 1943. During World War II, Franklin Roosevelt hosted then British Prime Minister Churchill at Camp David. In 1978, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menahem Begin held a summit at Camp David and reached the Camp David Agreement.

When discussing why Camp David was chosen as the meeting venue, Biden said, "This is my first summit held at Camp David, and I can't think of a more suitable location than here. This symbolizes a new era of cooperation between us."

Zhang Tengjun believes that Biden chose to receive Fumio Kishida and Yoon Seok yeol at Camp David in the hope of showcasing his friendly and intimate relationship with the leaders of Japan and South Korea through such a special venue, and the significance of attracting them is very obvious. Meanwhile, such an arrangement may leave a strong mark in the history of the United States and even the trilateral community. "The United States is attempting to create an important milestone in trilateral diplomacy between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, also to highlight the Biden administration's achievements in alliance diplomacy."

Biden's current term is less than a year and a half left, and the 2024 presidential election is imminent. Zhang Tengjun pointed out that "the upgrading of US Japan South Korea relations once again reflects the achievements of the Biden administration in returning to the circle of allies and tightening relations with allies." This is also a weakness of former President Trump. "Biden is optimizing his political performance to give him more say in the upcoming 2024 election," he said.

Zhang Tengjun summarized that the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea hope to convey three signals through this meeting: to demonstrate the strategic, special, and important nature of the trilateral relationship between the United States, Japan, and South Korea; Highlighting the willingness of the three parties to further strengthen communication and deepen cooperation; Promote the institutionalization and normalization of trilateral summits.

In order to weaken the impact of the presidential election on the US, Japan, and South Korea alliance, Biden emphasized that the goal of this summit is to consolidate long-term cooperation among the three countries, and these agreements will continue to be effective even if Trump returns to the White House. Trump's US priority policy keeps us away from the rest of the world, making the US weaker rather than stronger. In order to establish a trilateral alliance that the US has long failed to achieve, the Biden administration hopes to develop a strategic framework that is sustainable and will not be affected by a presidential election.

2

The old shadows between Japan and South Korea

After the David Camp meeting, the leaders of the three countries held a joint press conference, with Biden in the center, Kishida on the left, and Yin Xiyue on the right.

When talking about the normalization of the trilateral summit, Biden said, "It's not just this year or next year, it will continue to be like this." Kishida emphasized that the three sides will see the Camp David Principles as a new compass and vigorously implement specific cooperation. Yin Xiyue also stated at a press conference that the three sides have confirmed the will and possibility of "trilateral cooperation towards the new era.". Biden also said that Japan and South Korea have overcome the long-standing resentment left by the historic dispute and established a new alliance, and praised the "political courage" of Fumio Kishida and Yoon Seok yeol.

On the 17th, people in Seoul, South Korea gathered to protest against the summit of the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea, opposing the military alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

For a long time, Japan has been unwilling to acknowledge the crimes committed in South Korea during the Japanese military occupation from 1910 to 1945 and provide appropriate compensation, making it difficult for South Korea to ease its anti Japanese sentiment. After taking office in May 2022, South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol has promoted a series of friendly policies towards Japan, such as no longer requiring Japanese companies to compensate South Korean victims of forced labor during World War II. Instead, Seoul will establish a government operated fund to directly pay victims fees. Although it has been questioned and opposed domestically, this has greatly contributed to the warming of Japan South Korea relations.

However, Rome was not frozen in a day, and Japan South Korea relations are still far from reaching stability. Lv Chao stated that the relationship between Japan and South Korea has been severely opposed in the past, and the historical crux is still present. Although the government of Yin Xiyue has taken some measures to solve the labor problem, in reality, it is difficult to truly solve the historical issues between the two countries. At the same time, the territorial dispute between Japan and South Korea has become increasingly fierce. "Even though the Yoon Seok yeol government has adopted so many policies that flatter Japan, Japan still strongly protested when South Korea held military exercises on Dokdo. From this point of view, territorial issues still exist between Japan and South Korea for a long time." He said that in this regard, it is difficult for the Yoon Seok yeol government to make more concessions to Japan on territorial issues against the will of South Korean citizens.

Lv Chao pointed out that there is also a significant competitive relationship between Japan and South Korea in terms of economy. From automobile manufacturing to high-tech industries, Japan and South Korea almost have the same export advantage products. There is a significant competitive relationship between Japan and South Korea in the international market, especially in the Asian market. Although Japan has proposed to lift some restrictions on the upstream of semiconductor raw materials in South Korea, in reality, Japan still holds onto South Korea's high-tech semiconductor products, with the possibility of supply interruption at any time, which will put South Korea's high-tech industry in even greater trouble.

As part of the agreement, the three parties promise to establish a communication channel to quickly share information in the face of threats such as North Korean provocation. Previously, the United States stated that its goal was to eliminate nuclear weapons from the entire Korean Peninsula. The difference in wording this time has led to speculation that the United States is quietly supporting Seoul in launching its own nuclear program.

"This does not mean a change in US policy towards North Korea, nor does it mean that the US may give nuclear weapons to South Korea," denied Adrian Watson, spokesperson for the US National Security Council

3

Attract more opposition from countries

At the press conference, Biden emphasized that the intention of the US, Japan, and South Korea summit is not to "oppose China".Sheila A. Smith, Senior Researcher in Asia Pacific Studies at the US Council on Foreign Relations, stated that the underlying themes of technological innovation and global supply chain resilience discussed at the summit are all China.

Zhang Tengjun pointed out that Japan and South Korea have played a very important role in the so-called "Indo Pacific" strategy of the United States, and even in its strategy towards China. So the Biden administration hopes that through this summit, the ties between Japan and South Korea can be further strengthened, thereby tying these two countries to the chariot of the United States to contain China. "The United States has always hoped that Japan and South Korea can closely follow the United States' strategic steps towards China, in order to better serve the United States' strategy towards China," he said.

Nevertheless, the deep economic ties between China and East Asian countries have hindered these attempts. China is the largest trading partner of Japan and South Korea, as well as the third largest trading partner of the United States. More importantly, many industries in Japan and South Korea, from consumer electronics to electric vehicle batteries and building materials, have close ties with Chinese suppliers and subsidiaries, making it difficult to cut off economic ties.

Lv Chao pointed out that compared to the gradually declining Sino Japanese relations in recent years, the friendly relations established between China and South Korea over the past 30 years still have a good foundation. Although there has been a significant political shift since Yoon Seok yeol took office, there is currently a very dangerous trend in China South Korea relations. However, it is worth noting that Yoon Seok yeol has already faced considerable resistance within South Korea, from the political power of the opposition party to the opposition sentiment of South Korean citizens, making it difficult to fully implement his policy of distancing himself from China South Korea relations.

"A big question is whether South Korean companies and the South Korean public will continue to support this approach that is more opposed to China than before but closer to the United States, and whether they are willing to ignore historical disputes and resentment with Japan," said Susan Shek, a research professor at the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego.

What does it mean if the United States, Japan, and South Korea establish such a trilateral security framework? Zhang Tengjun believes that the cooperation between the United States, Japan, and South Korea not only radiates to China, but also to the entire Asia Pacific region. "If the United States establishes such a security alliance in Northeast Asia, it will further stimulate the tense mentality of countries in the Asia Pacific region and attract more countries' opposition. Because the United States has already established enough small multilateral exclusionary alliances, if the United States, Japan, and South Korea formally form a security alliance, it will be difficult not to trigger regional countries' backlash, leading to regional security and tension, which will also create some constraints on the progress of the United States."

On August 15th, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wang Wenbin, responded to issues related to the US, Japan, and South Korea summit by stating that China opposes relevant countries piecing together various "small circles" and opposing practices that exacerbate confrontation and harm the strategic security of other countries. I hope that relevant countries can follow the trend of the times and do more things that are conducive to regional peace, stability, and prosperity.