Guo Liyan: Strengthening the momentum of economic recovery | Structure | Economy

In the first half of the year, China's economy showed a rebound and a positive trend, returning to a normal operating track. Whether compared with the past three years or horizontally compared with other economies, 5.5% is a relatively fast economic growth rate. Against the backdrop of a severe and complex external environment and a global economic downturn, it is not easy for China to achieve such economic performance.

From the perspective of demand structure, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth has significantly increased compared to last year, especially the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure reaching 77.2%. Since the comprehensive restoration of normal economic and social operations, consumption in catering, clothing, transportation, cultural and tourism, and health care has accelerated, promoting related industries to reach a high level of prosperity, with significant improvements in revenue and profits. Since the beginning of this year, the implementation of major projects in the 14th Five Year Plan has accelerated, and the construction of major infrastructure such as transportation, energy, and water conservancy, as well as new infrastructure, has progressed smoothly. Investment in related key areas has grown rapidly. In the first half of the year, fixed assets investment increased in quantity and quality, especially in high-tech industries, investment in equipment manufacturing increased by 12.5% and 14.4%, which effectively played the role of optimizing the supply structure, and strongly supported the continuous enhancement of innovation momentum and the growth of emerging industries.

From the perspective of industrial structure, the service industry has played an important role in promoting economic recovery, improving the quality of life services, upgrading productive services, and contributing over 60% to economic growth. At the same time, the momentum and momentum of high-end, intelligent, and green transformation and upgrading in the manufacturing industry have become stronger. Major equipment manufacturing industries such as aerospace and shipbuilding have repeatedly made breakthroughs, with the delivery of large aircraft C919 for commercial use, the comprehensive acceleration of space station construction, and the shipbuilding industry's new order volume accounting for more than 70% of the international market. The production of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic cells and other products continues to maintain rapid growth, driving the added value of the automotive manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry to maintain double-digit growth. In the first half of the year, the industry structure of industrial enterprises continued to improve, with equipment manufacturing becoming the most prominent sector in terms of profit improvement. It demonstrates the comprehensive competitive advantage of China's complete industrial categories and strong system supporting capabilities.

Overall, in the first half of the year, the economy rebounded as a whole, its structure continued to optimize, and new momentum and vitality burst out, laying a solid foundation for achieving the expected annual growth target and significantly enhancing the confidence and quality of high-quality economic development.

Objectively speaking, China is still in a critical period of economic recovery and industrial upgrading, and it is necessary to dialectically view the phased and temporary fluctuations of individual macroeconomic data. One reason is that due to factors such as the high base of the same period last year and the rapid decline in international energy prices since the beginning of this year, a decrease in domestic pork prices, and price reductions and promotions by car companies, prices have shown a phased low operation. It is expected that with the further recovery of demand, the market cycle will accelerate and become smooth, and the trend of economic recovery and improvement will gradually be reflected in prices. The price increase is expected to return to a reasonable level. The second is that the overall real estate market is showing a stabilizing trend, with the decline in sales area of commercial housing and real estate development investment in the first half of the year narrowing to varying degrees, and sales revenue turning from decline to increase. The real estate market belongs to a phased adjustment, and with the orderly release of rigid and improved reasonable housing demand, it will drive improvements in residential consumption and investment, which is expected to gradually stabilize.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the external environment remains severe and complex, and it is necessary to resist external uncertainty with maximum certainty. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to coordinate the continuous improvement of economic operation and enhance the endogenous driving force that supports high-quality economic development. One is to increase the intensity of macroeconomic policy regulation, accelerate the implementation of policies and measures that have been introduced, and fully unleash the comprehensive effectiveness of policies. Deepen the overall deployment and recent measures to accelerate the construction of a unified national market, further improve the negative list system for market access, and create a more fair and smooth market access environment. The second is to concentrate efforts on forging strengths and addressing weaknesses, accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system supported by the real economy, promote the continuous burst of innovation momentum, and promote the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy. Further expand the scope of energy-saving and carbon reduction transformation and upgrading, continuously optimize the energy-saving and carbon reduction policy system, and promote the green transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. The third is to optimize the virtuous cycle mechanism of employment, income distribution, and consumption throughout the entire chain, fully tap into the advantages of super large scale markets, accelerate the mutual promotion of supply and demand, and the connection between production and sales, focusing on stabilizing bulk consumption, promoting automobile and electronic product consumption, expanding rural consumption, and optimizing the consumption environment. Fourthly, we will focus on reducing the explicit and implicit costs of the operation of the real economy, and work together to promote cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and transformation and upgrading. Expand the allocation of medium - and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry, increase financial support for the development, improve quality and efficiency of the manufacturing industry, help enterprises recover their vitality, and enhance investment capacity and confidence. The fifth is to adhere to the bottom line thinking, improve the multi-level risk monitoring system, properly handle and resolve potential risks in related fields, enhance the security guarantee capabilities in key areas, especially in response to adverse weather and other factors, and strengthen the responsibility for safety production and energy supply.