【 Guangming Forum 】 Macro data is improving, injecting confidence and added value to achieve the annual economic goals | Economy | Data

Guangming Forum

Authors: Li Zhibin and Zou Yinan

Since the beginning of this year, with the comprehensive restoration of normal economic and social operation, China's economy has gradually stabilized and improved, the quality of development has steadily improved, and people's lives continue to improve. The macro data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 17th showed that China's gross domestic product in the first half of the year was 59303.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% at constant prices. The main indicators improved overall, with some indicators showing outstanding highlights. This high-value interim transcript has laid a solid foundation for achieving the expected annual economic development goals and injected strong confidence.

Looking at the situation, China's economy has achieved sustained recovery and improvement. Overall, the growth rate of China's gross domestic product in the first half of this year was significantly faster than last year's full year growth rate of 3%, faster than the first quarter's 4.5%, and also faster than the average annual growth rate of 4.5% in the past three years, with a clear trend of quarterly recovery. From a demand perspective, the potential for domestic demand continues to be unleashed, especially with a significant increase in the driving force of consumption on economic growth. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.2% year-on-year, 2.4 percentage points faster than the first quarter, maintaining a rapid growth; Fixed assets investment increased by 3.8% year on year. While maintaining sustained growth, the structural optimization effect was significant, and investment in key areas grew rapidly. From a supply perspective, the three industries have continued to recover and their development foundation has been consolidated. In the first half of the year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.8% year-on-year, which was 0.8 percentage points faster than the first quarter; The added value of the service industry increased by 6.4% year-on-year, faster than the economic growth rate; Among them, the added value of the aerospace and equipment manufacturing industry above designated size and the lithium-ion battery manufacturing industry increased by 22.9% and 29.7% year-on-year, respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 3.7 million, with a growth rate of over 35%. The added value of the information transmission, software, and information technology services industry increased by 12.9%, and the innovation momentum continued to strengthen, and the new industry continued to grow and grow. From the perspective of people's livelihood, the policy of stabilizing employment continues to be effective, and the employment situation is gradually improving. The average national urban survey unemployment rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter, of which 5.2% was in June, showing an overall downward trend since the beginning of this year; Consumer prices for residents are operating at a low level, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in CPI in the first half of the year.

Looking at the world as a whole, China's economy has demonstrated strong resilience in recovery. In the first half of this year, the global economy faced significant downward pressure, with generally high global inflation levels and sluggish growth and recovery in major economies. On January 25, 2023, the United Nations released the "2023 World Economic Situation and Outlook" report, stating that the world economic growth rate will be significantly reduced to 1.9% in 2023, and pointing out that the world economic outlook is bleak and uncertain, with most countries facing the risk of economic recession in 2023. In sharp contrast, since the second quarter, multiple international organizations and institutions, including the United Nations, the World Bank, and the OECD, have raised their expectations for China's economic growth this year, fully reflecting the international community's confidence in China's economic development prospects. According to data released by major economies, in the first quarter of this year, the GDP of the United States, the eurozone, and Japan increased by 1.8%, 1%, and 1.9% year-on-year, respectively. Taking into account the situation in the second quarter, in such a complex and severe external environment, China's economic growth rate is significantly faster than that of major developed economies in the world, and the strong resilience of the recovery is fully demonstrated. The International Monetary Fund's previous prediction that China's contribution to global economic growth will reach around one-third by 2023 is gradually being confirmed. China is bringing valuable certainty to the world economy with its rapid global economic growth and high-quality development.

Looking at the overall situation, China's economy holds enormous growth potential. One is that the driving effect of consumption will continue to strengthen. Since the beginning of this year, with the active recovery and expansion of consumption by the whole society, the consumption potential has gradually been released, and the driving force for economic growth has significantly increased. The contribution rate of the final consumption expenditure growth to economic growth in the first half of this year reached 77.2%, which is significantly higher than the contribution rate of the whole year last year, and has played an important role in promoting economic recovery and improvement. With the implementation of policy measures around stabilizing bulk consumption, promoting automobile and electronic product consumption, expanding rural consumption, and optimizing the consumption environment, the driving role of consumption on China's economy will be further exerted in the second half of the year. The second is the positive development of the service industry. In the first half of the year, China's economy and society fully resumed normal operation, and the service industry represented by contact service industries such as wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, and transportation significantly accelerated its growth, contributing more to economic growth. In the second half of the year, with the accelerated release of consumer demand for cultural tourism, fitness and sports, as well as an increase in production demand for research and development, design, and business exhibitions, the service industry will continue to maintain rapid growth, helping to stabilize and recover the economy. The third is the development and growth of new driving forces. China continues to deeply implement the innovation driven development strategy, continuously strengthen its strategic technological strength, and widely apply modern information technology, artificial intelligence, big data and other technologies. Innovative achievements continue to emerge, new industries and products have a good growth momentum, and the consumption of intelligent products continues to expand, driving the growth of related manufacturing industries. In the first half of the year, the added value of production in the semiconductor device specialized equipment manufacturing industry, aerospace aluminum materials, industrial control computers, and systems increased by 30.9%, 23.3%, and 34.1%, respectively. In the next stage, China's innovation momentum will continue to strengthen and continuously release innovation dividends, injecting new impetus into economic development. The fourth is that the results of green transformation are evident. With the acceleration of the development of green energy in China, the formation of green production and lifestyle is accelerating, and the synergistic effect of green transformation and economic growth is constantly emerging. In the first half of the year, the production of new energy products such as new energy vehicles, solar cells, and charging stations increased by 35%, 54.5%, and 53.1% respectively. The export of "new three types" products represented by lithium batteries, solar cells, and electric passenger vehicles increased by 61.6%. In the next stage, the driving force of green development will be further released and become a new growth point for economic development, promoting the improvement of economic development quality while assisting in the transformation of economic growth momentum.

Stay at the moment and have firm confidence in achieving the annual economic goals. Although the current world political and economic situation is complex, with many unstable and uncertain factors, it has brought many impacts on China's development. At the same time, domestic economic development also faces some risks and challenges, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery is not yet stable. However, whether from the perspective of industrial foundation or market potential, the long-term fundamentals and conditions supporting high-quality development of China's economy have not changed, and positive factors driving the overall improvement of the economy are also constantly accumulating. With the accelerated implementation and effectiveness of various decisions and deployments by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, and the coordinated efforts of existing policies and incremental policies, various policies will continue to be launched. China's economy is sure to achieve a good situation of sustained structural optimization, sustained enhancement of momentum, and sustained improvement of the situation. We have full confidence, conditions, and the ability to achieve the expected goals and tasks of economic development for the whole year.