Gold prices are rising! Oil prices are rising! Will the Federal Reserve end this interest rate hike cycle? US CPI oil prices
On Wednesday, US time, the highly anticipated June CPI data showed a significant cooling of inflation, with investors betting that the Federal Reserve may end the current interest rate hike cycle after this month's rate hike. Boosted by this optimistic sentiment, the three major US stock indexes collectively opened high on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones up 0.25%, the S&P 500 up 0.74%, and the Nasdaq up 1.15% as of the close.
On the 12th, technology stocks in the US generally rose, while popular Chinese concept stocks maintained their upward trend. In terms of individual stocks, Facebook parent company Meta rose nearly 4% to its highest level in 18 months, while Nvidia rose 3.5%. Popular Chinese concept stocks have maintained their upward trend for three consecutive trading days, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 3.4%, breaking below 7000 points for the first time since June 16th. On the 12th, the US dollar index fell more than 1% and broke through the 101 mark. Due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve's current interest rate hike cycle is nearing its end, the US dollar index fell sharply on Wednesday. The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, fell 1.19% on the same day, breaking through the 101 mark and closing at 100.5220 in the end of the foreign exchange market. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% year-on-year in June, marking the smallest year-on-year increase in over two years. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% year-on-year in June, marking the smallest year-on-year increase in March 2021 in over two years, slightly lower than market expectations of a 3.1% year-on-year increase and a 0.2% month on month increase. The core CPI in June increased by 4.8% year-on-year, lower than market expectations of 5%. The market expects the Federal Reserve to end this interest rate hike cycle after this month. Analysts point out that the latest inflation data may not change the Fed's monetary policy this month, as inflation levels are still higher than the Fed's target of 2%. Therefore, it may still raise interest rates by 25 basis points at this month's meeting; However, this data may greatly increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will end this cycle of rate hikes after this month's rate hike. According to the "Federal Reserve Observation Tool" by the ChiNext, the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates in September this year to be only 20.9%. On the 12th, the three major European stock indexes collectively rose by more than 1%, also affected by the cooling expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. All three major European stock indexes also rose on Wednesday. As of the close, the FTSE 100 index in London, UK, rose by 1.83%, the CAC40 index in Paris, France rose by 1.57%, and the DAX index in Frankfurt, Germany rose by 1.47%. On the 12th, international oil prices rose. In terms of commodities, affected by the significant decline in the US dollar index, international oil prices rose on Wednesday. As of the close of the day, the futures price of light crude oil for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $75.75 per barrel, an increase of 1.23%; The London Brent crude oil futures for September delivery closed at $80.11 per barrel, an increase of 0.89%. On the 12th, the international gold price rose by more than 1%, and the weakening of the US dollar also formed a positive effect on gold prices. Gold became more attractive to investors, and the international gold price rose on Wednesday. The August gold futures market, which was the most active in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, saw a 1.27% increase in price, closing at 1961.7 US dollars per ounce.
